By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Election result for Chhattisgarh Legislative Assembly reveals that the electorates in Chhattisgarh have driven the Congress and the BJP towards a tougher contest for Lok Sabha election 2024 by reducing the difference in their shares in total votes polled to merely 4.04 per cent from 9.94 per cent in the Lok Sabha election 2019. The decline of vote share of BJP from 2019 was 5.17 per cent, out of which 0.73 per cent went to the Congress and 4.44 per cent went to the other parties.
This ground reality does not support PM Modi’s dig at anti-BJP forces warning them of “Many more meltdowns ahead” in respect of Chhattisgarh though the BJP swept the November 2023 state polls by winning 54 seats out of 90 and threw the Congress out of power that could win only 35 seats. Gondvana Gantantra Party (GGP) could manage to win just one seat and no other political party could win any seat. Comparison of these results with 2018 Vidhan Sabah election shows structural shift in voting pattern in the state, in which BSP and JCC(J) have lost their 2 and 5 seats respectively.
However, as for share of votes, Congress bagged 42.23 per cent of votes, just a minor decline from 43.04 per cent in 2018. In spite of almost retaining its support base, it miserably lost to BJP, since BJP has greatly increase its share of votes to 46.27 per cent from 32.97 per cent in 2018. Such a comparison may give a false impression about the gains of BJP since it does not include the political developments after 2018.
For example, we can take Lok Sabha election of 2019, when the BJP could will 9 out of 11 seats from the state, while Congress could win only 2 seats. Riding on the wave created in favour of the BJP after Pulwama terror attack on Indian Armed Forces in Jammu and Kashmir and the surgical strike into PoK, the party had bagged 51.44 per cent of votes. In 2023 state election, BJP could bag only 46.27 per cent of votes that is a decline of 5.17 per cent of votes just before Lok Sabah election 2024. Here lies the serious concern for the BJP.
Against this decline of share of votes of BJP, the Congress could increase its share of votes by 0.73 per cent to 42.23 per cent in November 2023 state election from 41.5 per cent it had bagged in election 2019. It would be an additional concern for the BJP. As for the Congress is concern, the loss of power has shown that it must not hope to gain munch without increasing its share of votes, since the Lok Sabha election 2024 is heading for the toughest ever contest between the BJP and the Congress.
The share of votes polled by the BSP was 2.05 per cent as against 3.87 per cent in 2018 Vidhan Sabha election and 2.33 per cent in 2019 Lok Sabha election. Though its share of votes is on the decline, BSP is still a third most important political force in the state after the BJP and Congress, though it could not retain its 2 seats. Its alliance partner GGP, however, won one seat. BSP+ had contested all 90 seats.
Congress did not have any seat sharing arrangement with INDIA alliance partner because they believed that they could win the Vidhan Sabha election on their own. That is why AAP contested 53 seats and bagged 0.93 per cent of votes. CPI got 0.39 per cent and CPI(M) 0.04 per cent of votes. SP’s vote share was 0.04 per cent, JCC(J) 1.23 per cent, LJPRV 0.01 per cent, and others 5.55 per cent. Nota votes were 1.26 per cent.
Election result shows that 88.5 per cent votes were shared between the BJP and the Congress, and only 10.24 per cent were left for other contestants. Nota votes have registered and decline of 0.2 per cent compared to 2019 Lok Sabha election. Since Congress and the BJP had shared 92.94 per cent of votes, it can be concluded that other political parties, especially non-BJP political parties have been able to snatch 4.44 per cent of votes from the BJP compared to 2019. Congress could snatch only 0.73 per cent of votes from the BJP that the party had bagged during the last Lok Sabha election.
All these indicate that BJP will have to fight its toughest political battle ever during Lok Sabha election 2014, and will be in serious trouble if Congress could somehow contain the infighting within the party which resulted into loss of large number of seats by very thin margins. It should be noted that Congress lost one seat by only 16 votes, one by 94 votes, one seat by 255 votes, and one seat by 714 votes. There are another half-a-dozen seats that it lost by less than 10,000 votes. There was only one Vidhan Sabha seat where Congress was in triangular contest and in terms of vote remained at poor third. BJP has won this seat by defeating JCC(J), a splinter group founded by former Congress leader and CM Ajit Jogi.
If Congress goes for seat sharing with INDIA alliance partners, it could pose additional challenge to the BJP during the forthcoming Lok Sabha election. Only time will tell if BJP could retain its 9 Lok Sabha seats won in 2019 at a time when its votes share has declined. (IPA Service)
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