The 12-point Chinese proposal to end the ongoing Ukraine-Russia war fails to address a vital issue that led to the armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Subtle diplomatic nuances make the proposal look rather weak. It does not even name the belligerent nations. The proposal is somewhat silent on Russia’s key demand that Ukraine and the US-led NATO give a legally binding guarantee that they will not hold any military activity in eastern Europe and Ukraine.
This is not the first time that Russia is at war against the former Soviet republic of Ukraine which maintained deep social and cultural ties with Russia until the latter invaded Ukraine in 2014 to free pro-Russian Crimea. The relations between the two neighbours deteriorated since then. China’s peace proposal does not suggest a solution to the strategic concerns of Russia and Ukraine which is in the process of becoming a member of NATO. China emphasises on the immediate need for withdrawal of Western sanctions on Russia and recommends armistice before the two sides go for a negotiated settlement.
While putting forward the proposal, China has been extremely careful about avoiding the reasons behind the conflict and the 30-member NATO’s provocative role in the armed conflict. The relations between NATO and Ukraine have grown increasingly cozy since 2014. NATO’s practical support for Ukraine is set out in the Comprehensive Assistance Package for Ukraine at the July 2016 Warsaw summit of the North Atlantic Alliance. The following year, Ukrainian Parliament adopted legislation reinstating membership in NATO as a strategic foreign and security policy objective. Ukraine amended its constitution for this purpose. Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky approved his country’s new National Security Strategy in September 2020 that provided for the development of the distinctive partnership with NATO with the ultimate aim to become a full-fledged member. As things stand now, NATO alone can prevail on Ukraine to end the war.
The three moot points of China’s peace proposal are: withdrawal of Western sanctions on Russia, armistice, and return to the negotiation table. However, they are easier said than done. Withdrawal of energy sanction may be most welcome by several European Union members though NATO is unlikely to give up on the action. Most of the 12 points in the Chinese peace initiative do not carry specific proposals. They are very general in nature. China even avoided the names of parties called for taking the peace initiatives.
China has placed responsibility for sanctions on “relevant countries” without naming them. These countries “should stop abusing unilateral sanctions” and “do their share in de-escalating the Ukraine crisis,” it said. The proposal stressed the need for upholding the sovereignty of all countries. “The security of a region should not be achieved by strengthening or expanding military blocs,” the proposal said while condemning a “Cold War mentality.” The proposal called for a cease-fire, peace talks, protection for prisoners of war, and stopping attacks on civilians, without elaborating, as well as keeping nuclear power plants safe and facilitating grain exports.
The Chinese peace proposal is most unlikely to work for now. Ukraine is no longer in control of the situation. It is merely acting on behalf of NATO and the western powers, which have invested billions of dollars in Ukraine’s war machine. NATO is providing massive military supplies, arms, ammunitions and financial assistance to help Ukraine keep fighting the Russian forces. Arguably, the war has become partly global. Even Australia has contributed to Ukraine’s war effort by supplying arms.
Therefore, Ukraine is not in a position to take an independent decision to accept or reject the Chinese ceasefire proposal to start peace talks with Russia. This is despite the fact that Ukraine is fast getting devastated as the war progresses. The military attack is mostly one sided — from Russia on Ukraine. The latter is merely defending with its back to the wall. There is hardly any counter attack from Ukraine’s side. With the war entering the second year, Russia is preparing to launch a large-scale offensive. And, the West has vowed to support Ukraine for as long as it takes, pledging more military aid and weaponry and financial support. In effect, Ukraine is now a ward of the EU and NATO.
The seemingly pro-Russian Chinese peace proposal looks also self contradictory to an extent. It stressed the need for upholding the “sovereignty of all countries.” This implies that Ukraine has the sovereign right to join NATO and, in the process, allow NATO military build-up close to its Russian border. However, this is not acceptable to Russia. Russia’s pre-emptive attack on Ukraine was meant to secure a legally binding assurance from Ukraine that it will not allow NATO to use its soil to hold any military activity.
The growing Ukraine-NATO alliance is the crux of the Russia-Ukraine armed conflict with NATO hell-bent on defeating the Russian dream. China appears to have deliberately overlooked the point while talking about the sovereign right of a nation. Interestingly, Russia’s concern is not entirely unfounded. Several countries, including China, South Africa, India, Pakistan, Armenia, Cameroon, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Guinea, Mongolia, Mozambique, Namibia, Sudan, Tanzania and Uganda, have voted to abstain in all four special UN resolutions to condemn the Russian aggression since last year.
However, if the current nature of conventional war continues for long, it is bound to go in favour of Russia, the economy of which is nine times larger than Ukraine’s in terms of GDP. Although the Russian economy was believed to have contracted by around two percent in 2022 following successive waves of unprecedented sanctions, it is projected to grow from this year. Thanks to the economic support from China, India, South Africa and others, Russia has been quick to adapt to alternative supply chains, lower-tech replacements, and jerry-rigged substitutes for components it can no longer get.
Russia has been selling record volumes of oil to China and India among others. The country has acquired a fleet of oil tankers to relieve itself from Western sanctions. On the contrary, Ukraine’s economy continues to suffer catastrophic damage. Its GDP is estimated to have declined by 33 percent in 2022. The country’s reconstruction costs are projected to exceed $1 trillion. Millions of Ukrainian citizens have been displaced. Some of them may never return to Ukraine. At this stage, it may be wasteful to think Russia will unilaterally withdraw and surrender. (IPA Service)
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