By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Indian National Congress (INC) is heading for another very interesting political battle for the Rajya Sabha, where it had just escaped a loss of the post of the Leader of Opposition. With two of its members in the Upper House recently elected to the Lok Sabha, INC’s strength in the upper house reduced to 26, just one more than the required number of 25 to hold the post.
Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge is presently the LoP in the Upper House. The party will soon have the LoP in the Lok Sabha, which it had lost in 2014, when it won only 44 seats, which was less than the required 10 percent of the total seats in the Lower House. Congress could win only 52 seats in the Lok Sabha election in 2019, three short of the 55 required for the LoP post. Since INC has won 99 seats in the 18th Lok Sabha, the Congress party is sure it will get the post this time.
Since the LoP post is very important on account of the key decision-making processes in both the Upper and Lower Houses, the Congress will be in a position to play crucial roles in both the Lok Sabha, and in the Rajya Sabha. Additionally, as the largest political party in the opposition INDIA bloc, all the proceedings and decisions on key issues will be viewed as NDA led by BJP versus INDIA bloc led by Congress. Until now, Congress has been given weightage by the Narendra Modi government only as the principal opposition party, led in the Lok Sabha by Adhir Ranjan Choudhary of West Bengal who has lost his seat this time. The two Rajya Sabha members who have made it to the Lok Sabha are K C Venugopal and Deependra Hooda.
The elections for 10 vacant Rajya Sabha seats will be held in July or August. There will likely be very tough contests in Haryana and Maharashtra where statistical positions of the electorates are very uncertain.
Out of the 10 vacancies – 2 each are from Assam, Bihar, and Maharashtra; and one each from Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Haryana, and Tripura. Seven of the 10 were held by the BJP, two by the Congress, and one by the RJD. The BJP would like to retain its seats and win the ones held by the Congress and the two RJD seats, one of which fell vacant after Misa Bharati won the Lok Sabha election.
At present the BJP has 90 members in the Rajya Sabha, but it would like to win more seats for the Rajya Sabha, after a severe setback in the Lok Sabha election 2024 that has reduced PM Narendra Modi to a leader of the party without majority in the Lower House. The BJP is dependent on its allies in the NDA, while staring at stiff opposition from the INC-led INDIA bloc on various issues confronting the nation.
Rajya Sabha election is important for the BJP for other reasons too which include the exit of BJP’s Piyush Goyal, Biplab Kumar Deb, Jyotiraditya Scindia, Vivek Thakur, Sarbananda Sonowal, Kamakhya Prasad Tasa and Udayanraje Bhonsale. BJP’s leader of the Party in the Rajya Sabha Piyush Goyal’s exit calls for a new leader for the House.
Congress can’t hope for a fair election in the light of BJP’s track record. INC suffered a setback just four months ago, in February 2024 in Himachal Pradesh, where the party lost the election despite it having the required number of MLAs to elect its candidate. BJP won despite having only 25 MLAs in the 68-seat Vidhan Sabha. BJP’s Harsh Mahajan defeated Congress’ Abhishek Manu Singhvi through engineering defection and cross-voting.
The BJP is comfortably placed in Assam, Tripura, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan, unless BJP MLAs cross-vote in favour of INDIA bloc candidates. As per the strength in Bihar, BJP and RJD will get one seat each easily, if there is no cross-voting. However, it will face great difficulties in Haryana’s one seat and Maharashtra’s two seats.
In the 90-member Haryana assembly, 3 seats are vacant. Out of 87 current members, BJP has 41, Congress has 29, JJP has 10, INLD has 1, HLP has 1, and 5 are independent MLAs. One independent and one HLP MLA have declared their support for BJP and hence BJP’s tally goes up to 43 while INDIA bloc has 44 MLAs. Congress hopes that their candidate would win if there would not be any cross-voting against their candidate. However, it would be difficult for the Congress since 6 out of 19 JJP MLAs are angry with Dushyant Choutala, and two of them have announced support for BJP.
In Maharashtra, BJP’s problem is likely to become serious on account of its angry allies, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and the Ajit Pawar-led NCP, over perceived injustice done to them by PM Narendra Modi while allotting ministries in his cabinet. This may cast a shadow on the BJP’s electoral fortunes. Opposition INDIA bloc parties – Congress, NCP(SP), and Shiv Sena (UBT) – are trying to fish in troubled waters. (IPA Service)
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