By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Congress is running against time on seat-sharing arrangement with India alliance partners, which is likely to be delayed further. A crucial meeting has been scheduled by Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge on January 4, in which presidents of its state units and the leaders of its legislative members will be sharing their views to finalize the seat-sharing proposal to be formally conveyed to the constituents of the INDIA alliance, which signals further delay to be inevitable. Moreover, Congress’ National Alliance Committee’s expectation in reportedly too high to be agreed upon by the constituent political parties in the INDIA alliance.
Initially, INDIA alliance had decided in its Mumbai meet on September 1 to complete its seat sharing by September 30. Congress leadership did not take it seriously and delayed the process on account of its being too busy in state elections of November 2023, and avoided any seat-sharing arrangement with alliance partners saying that such arrangement was intended for only Lok Sabah Election 2024, believing that their win in state elections would empower them a capacity to bargain for more seats. However, their dream was shattered. Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge then called for next meeting of India alliance on December 6, which was deferred to December 19 where it was decided that the seat-sharing in the alliance would be finalised by December 31, a deadline that failed again on account of delay in decision within the Congress’ Committee on National Alliance, which could meet on December 29 and 30, and their decision needs to be discussed thoroughly in the January 4 meeting called by Mallikarjun Kharge.
As it is learnt, Congress’ National Committee on Alliance has decided to contest about 290 seats independent of alliance, while seeking for another 85 seats from the INDIA alliance partners. It would add to 375 seats. The decision of the Committee is based on aspirations of the resurging Congress, especially after the Bharat Jodo Yatra of the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi who is set to launch another Bharat Nyay Yatra from January 14.
It is worth recalling that Congress had won 44 seats in Lok Sabha lection 2014 while it was runner up in 244 seats adding up to 268 only. In the subsequent 2019 Lok Sabha election Congress had won 52 seats and was runner up in 206 seats adding up to 258 seats. Out of these, on many seats the party was in contests with political parties in opposition which are now in INDIA alliance. Thus, Congress’ claim on seats would be logical in much less than 258 seats. Obviously, if the Congress decides to follow the decision of party’s National Committee on Alliance, it would find stiff resistance from other political parties in the INDIA alliance. It is learnt that the Congress’ National Committee on Alliance would submit its comprehensive report to Congress President Kharge soon so that the final decision could be taken in the Congress meet on January 4.
If Congress would stick for 85 seats on which the party wants to contest with the help of INDIA alliance partners, and another about 290 on its own then it would be very difficult for other opposition parties to agree with, because in that case the total number of 168 seats would be left for seat-sharing out of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats.
The difficulty in seat-sharing talks can just be guessed in the backdrop that in about 400 seats, INDIA alliance partners are already working as an anti-BJP force. There are about 143 Lok Sabha seats left out of 543 where constituent political parties in the INDIA alliance needed to finalise their seat-sharing arrangement. Nevertheless, Congress’ Committee on National Alliance to take on PM Modi and BJP, seem to carve out a new strategy on the eve of General Election 2024.
Congress seems to have difficulties seat-sharing arrangement with AAP in Delhi, Punjab, and even Gujarat, where the both the parties are aiming to contest large number of seats. In Uttar Pradesh, the party wants to contest too many seats while Samajwadi Party has said that they would concede only a couple of seats to Congress.
In West Bengal, Congress seems to be under pressure both from the TMC and Left front. Congress leadership will have to perform a tightrope walk. Similar situation is also applicable in Assam, Tripura, and several other northeastern states. Congress will have lesser problem in Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Jharkhand, and Maharashtra since the constituent political parties are already in some working arrangement. However, the path ahead would not be smooth, if Congress sticks to its high aspirations rather than the ground realities.
In Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan, Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, and Haryana, Congress likes to contest all seats on its own. However, there are certain pockets where other political parties in the INDIA alliance have considerable influence, and therefore would stake claim on seats.
The way the things are moving on, and the time Congress is taking in placing its position in the INDIA alliance is ominous, since it would delay the seat-sharing process, which in turn would cut the campaigning time short for its candidates and parties. Congress therefore must speed up the seat-sharing process with realistic aspirations based on the ground realities rather than its perceived resurgence in the coming weeks. It must take appropriate lessons from its losses in the recently concluded state elections, especially in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. (IPA Service)
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