The stage is set for the holding of the Lok Sabha elections in April/May this year. The two Left parties CPI and the CPI(M) which played a major role in the formation of the Congress led UPA government after the Lok Sabha polls in 2004, are struggling o be relevant in Parliamentary politics. In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the tally of the Left was a total of only five- three by the CPI(M) and two by the CPI. Out of the five, two seats each by the CPI and the CPI(M) were won as a part of the DMK led alliance. That way, on the basis of its own strength, the Left — the CPI(M) got only one seat from Kerala.
In the last five years since the 2019 polls, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been aggressively going with the implementation of the Hindutva agenda — the latest being the inauguration of Ram Mandir at Ayodhya on January 22 this year. The opposition parties, after lot of discussions, have finally formed the INDIA block to take on the BJP unitedly. The CPI, CPI(M) and the third left party CPI(ML) are constituents of this INDIA bloc. The left leaders are contributing to the discussions about the campaign strategy as also the contents of the programme. But these days, the ultimate bargaining power of the Left is little since they lack the electoral strength which is most important in Parliamentary politics.
Can the combined Left change the present low level of representation to a substantial one in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls? There is a good possibility of an increase in the number of seats but that depends mainly on the performance of the CPI(M) and the CPI in Kerala. The Left is not considered in a winning position in Bengal in the current electoral scenario. So now, the Left can increase its 2024 Lok Sabha tally mainly from Kerala and if possible, through some push from one or two other states.
Why Kerala is important for the Left’s better fortunes in 2024? Kerala has 20 seats in Lok Sabha. In 2019 polls, the CPI (M) got only one seat on behalf of the LDF while the Congress led UDF got 19 seats out of which the Congress alone won 15 seats. This was the highest tally of the Congress from any state in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. This big tally of the Congress was not commensurate with the political situation then since the LDF government led by the CPI(M) was in power. This time, this is more so. The LDF won a big victory in 2021 assembly polls. Since then, the Congress also won some by polls but in the latest local body polls, the LDF did far better than UDF. The LDF is organisationally prepared. The CPI(M) is contesting in 15 seats while the CPI is fighting in four seats, one seat has gone to Kerala Congress(Mani), a new member of LDF.
At the same time, the Congress high command has been giving maximum focus on retaining its 15 seats in Kerala and that is of crucial importance in the Congress planning for crossing the figure of 120 nationally as against the 2019 tally of 52 The Congress cannot afford to lose existing seats. The party organisation has been assured all resources for attaining the objective. So for the LDF, it will be a bitter battle to get a few new seats from the Congress’s sitting constituencies. But still it is possible-it can be near five to six.
As regards Tamil Nadu is concerned, the DMK led INDIA alliance is strong and the Left has to see that the DMK leader M K Staling checkmates the Congress pressure to get more seats from the Left quota. Congress is seeking eleven seats as against its 2019 contesting figure of nine. The Party got eight, in one seat, it was defeated by AIADMK. If the DMK leaders stick to the present quota of the Left for 2024 also, the CPI and the CPI(M) can retain two seats each in 2024 polls ..
Then the most important state for the Left is Bihar where the CPI(ML) Liberation is the most powerful Left party. With the desertion of JD(U) to NDA, RJD led INDIA bloc has enough flexibility to share more seats among them. The CPI(ML) Liberation is seeking five seats in its strongholds, the CPI may get two seats and the CPI(M) one or two seats. There is a good possibility of the Left getting a total of 4 to 5 seats from Bihar..The CPI(ML) Liberation may get representation in Lok Sabha for the first time after 2024 polls.
There are two other states Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, where the Congress will benefit by having alliance with the CPI(M) and the CPI. In AP, both the Communist parties have their own support bases and under alliance formula, both the parties can get two seats each. Similarly in Odisha, the Congress will be facing a three way contest with the ruling BJD and the BJP. A seat sharing with both CPI and the CPI(M) in one seat each can be helpful for the INDIA bloc.
That way, initial assessment shows that in 2024 elections, the three Left parties together can cross the two digit figure as against the 2019 figure of five. This is still too low compared to the electoral performance of the united CPI in the first general elections in 1951-52. The CPI got 16 seats, and its ally PDF 8 — a total of 24 — the second largest after the Congress which got 364 seats while the Bharatiya Jana Sangha, the parent party of BJP got three seats.
In the last seventy two years of the country’s parliamentary democracy and 17 Lok Sabha elections, the communists have performed in a consistent manner in terms of their seats despite split of the CPI in 1964 into CPI and the CPI(M) till 2009 when there was a big setback in West Bengal with the Lok Sabha seats falling drastically to 16 for the CPI(M) and 4 for the CPI . In 2014 elections , this plummeted further to 10- nine for the CPI(M) and one for the CPI. The downhill journey of the communists in 2019 Lok Sabha elections reached its nadir at 5 from the peak of 61 for the entire Left in 2004 when the CPI(M) alone had 44 seats and CPI 11.
The undivided CPI got 29 seats in 1957 Lok Sabha elections and 30 seats in 1962 Lok Sabha elections. Thereafter, significantly, despite the split in 1964 and bitter fighting between the CPI and the newly formed CPI(M) in 1967 Lok Sabha elections, the CPI got 24 sweats and CPI(M) 19 seats. This means that the two CPs together fighting separately got 43 seats in the bitterly contested 1967 elections surpassing the earlier figure of undivided CPI. The 1967 elections led to the formation of non-Congress governments in the states.. In 1971, Indira Gandhi with her Garibi Hatao slogan swept the Lok Sabha elections but the CPI and the CPI(M) managed 24 each with a total of 48 seats in the new Lok Sabha.
From 1977 onwards, it was a period of reaching the peak for CPI(M) with its dominance in West Bengal where it got elected to lead the state government after the state assembly elections in June 1977.In 1977 Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M) got 22 while the CPI seats came down to 7 . Both the parties fought separately. Then from 1980 again, the two CPs became the partners of the Left block and in 1980 Lok Sabha elections, the CPI(M) got 39 and the CPI got 14.
In 1984 Lok Sabha elections in the wake of Indira Gandhi’s assassination, there was a wave in favour of Rajiv Gandhi throughout the country including West Bengal. The CPI(M) could get only 22 seats in new Lok Sabha while the CPI got just six. The Congress got a record 414 seats. Then from 1989 elections till 2004, the CPI(M) through its wins in Bengal, could manage 34 seats in 1989, 36 in 1991, 32 in 1996, 32 in 1998 and 39 in 1999 Lok Sabha elections .CPI got 12 seats in 1989, 14 in 1991,12 in 1996, 9 in 1998,5 in 1999 and 11 in 2004.
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections have given an opportunity to three Left parties to go to the people and apprise them of both INDIA and their own programmes. Ultimately, the people are the arbiters in a democracy. The CPI and the CPI(M) have to work hard to raise their striking power in favour of the people’s struggles through higher representation in Lok Sabha. The Time is now. (IPA Service)
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