By Dr. Gyan Pathak
The impressive gains in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan could not blind the BJP leadership to the fact of its declining share of votes in all the states in November 2023 elections compared to Lok Sabha Election 2019, and hence it was compelled to bring new faces as Chief Ministers as a preventive measure to put a brake on its falling vote share and thereby its ultimate fall in the Lok Sabha Election 2024, when the BJP and PM Narendra Modi would be seeking for their third term. The Choice of CMs has never been aimed at gain in these states, since there is technically and otherwise no question of gain in terms of Lok Sabah seats in these states, or even elsewhere on account of caste or ST politics since the new CMs are just local leaders without any pan-India influence.
All these three states account for 65 Lok Sabha seats out of which BJP had won 61 seats and one of its partner RLP in Rajasthan had won 1 seat in 2019. BJP had won 9 out of 11 in Chhattisgarh, 28 out of 29 in Madhya Pradesh, and 24 out of 25 in Rajasthan. Therefore, on the one hand there is no question of further gain in terms of seats in Lok Sabah election 2024, but on the other there is every chance of losing its seats on account of its declining share of votes that have came down by 17.38 per cent in Rajasthan, 9.99 per cent in Madhya Pradesh, and 5.17 per cent in Chhattisgarh. It is also worth noting that RLP in Rajasthan has already deserted BJP that had 2.06 per cent of votes in 2019, but left NDA in December 2020 in protest of PM Modi’s three controversial farm laws. Increase in RLP’s share of vote in the state in November 2023 election to 2.39 per cent shows that farmers are yet to reconcile with the BJP’s anti-farmer attitude.
The much declined winning margins of BJP in 2023 as against Congress compared to 2019 are additional concerns for the BJP leadership. In Rajasthan difference of votes shared by BJP and the Congress is only 2.16 per cent, in Madhya Pradesh 5.58 per cent, and in Chhattisgarh only 4.04 per cent. It has just widened the winning uncertainty for the BJP, which the party leadership has taken note of. Bringing the new faces as chief ministers of all these three states is therefore just part of a preventive measure to avoid the tentative impact of the anti-incumbency of the BJP government in both the centre and the state. The new faces may just enable the BJP to gain time in the states which the old faces as chief ministers could not gain.
The Choice of Vishnu Deo Sai as new Chief Minister of Chhattisgarh has been taken in the hope that by doing so the party may improve its deteriorating image among tribes in the state and across India. It was thought important since the winning rate of BJP candidates in ST seats have come down from 66 per cent in 2019 to 56 per cent in November 2023 election in these three states. It shows the overall deterioration of BJP’s image among tribes that is also perceivable in general seats across the country. Making a tribal a chief minister of Chhattisgarh could not benefit BJP in the Lok Sabha election 2024 since it has already 9 sitting MPs out of 11. It can also not help in other states too, since it is just a symbolism, and the tribes are demanding much more which include rights to land and forest. Tribal communities want redressal of their grievances, not mere symbolism. Moreover, every state has their own influential tribal leaders and many are from the opposition INDIA camp.
Merely symbolism does not work since we have already seen that despite making a tribal woman the President of India could not prevent alienation to tribal community in Karnataka Vidhan Sabha election in May where BJP could not even win a single ST seat, and even November 2023 election results show almost 10 per cent decline in winnability of BJP candidates in ST reserve seats compared to 2019 Lok Sabha election.
In Madhya Pradesh, Mohan Yadav is BJP’s choice for Chief Minister, which is intended to retain OBC vote share as well as influencing Yadav votes elsewhere, such as in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar where Akhilesh Yadav and Lalu Yadav’s son Tejashwi Yadav are most influential leaders among Yadavas in particular and OBCs in general. The decision has come in the backdrop of the Congress and INDIA alliance’s promise for conducting caste census as it has been done in Bihar. Bihar has already brought a legislation to increase OBC reservation in the state, and OBCs elsewhere are also waiting for increased legislation. Merely choosing an OBC and Yadav as chief minister may not be so effective in Madhya Pradesh as the BJP leadership may be thinking, since the state has been under OBC chief ministers of BJP for decades. Additionally, it may not attract Yadavas of other states because Mohan Yadav has only local influence, and Yadavas of other leaders have their own favourite Yadava leaders. It should be noted that even Sharad Yadav could not influence Yadavas of Bihar because they had Lalu Yadav as their leader.
Bhajan Lal Sharma is BJP’s CM choice in Rajasthan, presumably to appease Brahmin voters in the state and elsewhere such as in Uttar Pradesh where there are large numbers of Brahmin voters. Of late, BJP’s OBC politics has irked caste Hindus including Brahmins. In several states, including in Rajasthan and Uttar Pradesh, Brahmins have been for a long time feeling suppressed under the Rajput leaderships of the BJP. In terms of Lok Sabha seats, BJP has nothing to gain in Rajasthan, since NDA had won all the seats from the state, but party’s CM choice will not be able to put brake on its overall declining vote share, due to disillusionment of voters from all communities that is reflected in decline in vote share of the BJP in November 2023 Vidhan Sabha election.
BJP leadership knows this and hence it has tried to balance the caste equations while choosing not only chief ministers, but also speakers of the Vidhan Sabhas and the deputy chief ministers. Since, the political equations have many variables other than castes, the BJP leadership would need much more to do in recent months to put brake on its declining share of votes, including a counter narrative to the new narrative that may be brought forward by Congress and the INDIA alliance. (IPA Service)
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