All indications available from the Congress and Trinamool Congress sources on the eve of the INDIA constituents meeting in New Delhi on December 19 suggest that the Congress high command is itching to form an electoral alliance with the Trinamool Congress in Bengal for fighting the BJP jointly in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls..
This means that the Congress will have to do away with its alliance with the CPI(M) led Left Front at the state level., if the Congress-TMC alliance takes shape. So long both the Congress and the CPI(M) have been fighting the ruling TMC in the state. The state Congress president Adhir Choudhury has been most vocal in criticising the West Bengal chief minister Mamata Banerjee and her rule in the state. He has been maintaining the position that the state Congress will fight both the BJP and the TMC simultaneously in alliance with the CPI(M) led Left Front.
In the present Lok Sabha, the Congress has two seats, the BJP 17 and the TMC 23.The CPI(M), for the first time since its formation in 1964, has no seat in Lok Sabha from Bengal. In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP got 18 seats, but in Asansol by polls later, the TMC defeated the BJP and so BJP strength has come down to 17. Further another 2019 BJP winner Arjun Singh left BJP and joined Trinamool, though officially he is still considered a BJP Lok Sabha member. At the same time, Kathi Lok Sabha MP Sisir Adhikary, father of the BJP opposition leader in Bengal assembly Suvendu Adhikari has left connections with TMC. He is supporting his son. .
The electoral scenario in Bengal has undergone substantial change in favour of TMC in the last five years since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. The results of the 2021 assembly elections showed that the TMC has been able to restore its lost base from BJP in all South Bengal districts, but in North Bengal, the BJP influence still remains. TMC on its own carried out its survey and it showed that in six Lok Sabha seats in North Bengal where the BJP won in 2019, TMC is not in a position to defeat them on its own , but if there is an alliance with the Congress, BJP can be defeated in at least five out of six seats. The fact is that the Congress on its own, is not in a position to win any seat, but its vote base varying from 5 per cent to 12 per cent in some North Bengal seats can lead to TMC-Congress alliance win.
As regards Congress high command, sources say that its own assessment reportedly shows that the alliance of Congress and CPI(M) led Left Front is in no position to defeat BJP by fighting simultaneously TMC. Congress studies have analysed the CPI(M) vote share in the recent polls. Its assessment is reported to be, if there has to be a choice, between TMC and the CPI(M), an alliance with the TMC is desirable for the Congress in term of sure seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Sources maintain that the Congress leader Rahul Gandhi in his talks with the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee on December 4 mentioned about the need for the INDIA parties to fight jointly in Bengal to which she agreed and told him to start the seat sharing talks as early as possible. Both of them decided to take forward the discussions on seat sharing at the INDIA meeting on December 19.
As a follow up, TMC has offered three seats to the Congress in the first stage of discussions, the two present seats at Berhampore and Maldah South. Apart, TMC is reported to have offered Raiganj seat to the Congress. This seat is now held by the BJP. Congress, it is leant is looking for minimum six seats. But TMC sources say that any further addition to Congress seat will depend on the Congress agreeing to one seat to TMC in Assam and another one in Meghalaya. Assam has got 14 Lok Sabha seats and Meghalaya two LS seats.
TMC has been giving focus on North Bengal districts, the strongest area of the BJP and the weakest for the TMC. In South Bengal districts, the TMC dominance is absolute now. The party needs virtually no support to defeat BJP. But in North Bengal districts, the BJP’s strength has declines a bit since the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, but still it is adequate to get a good number of seats. The six seats in the North Bengal districts include Alipur Duar, Balurghat, Coochbehar, Darjeeling, Jalpaiguri and Raiganj. In these seats, the vote share by BJP varied from 59 per cent to the lowest 40 per cent.
In 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC got 34 seats out of the total 42 seats, then in 2019 polls, it went down to 22 seats. Now TMC is working on restoring that strength of 34 seats again. As for Congress high command, its earlier hopes of getting substantial seats from the Hindi heartland have got some jolt in the wake of the results in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. The party is not ready to give up any existing Lok Sabha seat in any state including Bengal. It is to be seen whether the Bengal Congress falls in line with Delhi or the high command stops its own move and allow the state Congress to pursue its alliance with the Left Front in the interests of party organisation. (IPA Service)
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