The results of the first round of French national elections held on June 30 are out on expected lines. The far right National Rally (RN) led by Marine Le Pen has got 34 per cent of the votes against the Leftist New Popular Front’s 29 per cent and President Emanuel Macron’s party at 20 per cent. Only few candidates with 50 per cent votes, will be elected in the first round. The fate of French democracy will be finally decided on July 7 in the second round when the candidates with maximum votes get elected.
Out of the total of 577 seats in Parliament, 289 means majority. It is clear with 34 per cent votes in favour of the Far Right (RN), in the first round and the total of 49 per cent – (29 per cent by the Left and 20 per cent by the centrist party of President Macron) against the far right, it is possible to keep RN out from power after July 7 if the second and third parties agree on a tactical voting. Already the voting figures in each constituency going for second round are known. This arrangement can be made in hours if the Centrists are really serious in preventing a right takeover of France. President Macron has already called for joint efforts to defeat RN on July 7. So it will be seen how the follow up steps are taken by the Left and President Macron to avert a fascist takeover of France.
Since the elections process is complicated, there is no clear idea yet of how many candidates went to the second round and they belong to which parties. This will be clear soon, but the unofficial estimates put it at 80. If that is so, in the second round, elections will be held in around 497 seats. In all these seats, the new Popular Front and Macron party have to agree that the first among the two contending parties will be the joint candidate and the votes of the second candidate among the two, will be transferred to the first candidate. This is not all that easy because, the supporters also have their preferences, but in the present desperate situation, the leadership of both parties have to enforce this to ensure that RN does not get majority
As far as the parties go, senior figures in the four-party left-green NFP alliance – including the firebrand leader of the radical left France Unbowed (LFI), Jean-Luc Mélenchon – have promised that in all constituencies where RN is in first place and an NFP candidate is in third, the NFP candidate will withdraw. This is a big gesture and it shows how serious the NFP alliance is in preventing the far right take over. Macron has mentioned of the need of anti- far right unity on Sunday night after the results were out, but his party officials have been far less clear about their stand in respect of such constituencies where they have to withdraw in favor of NFP candidates. However Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said that third placed candidates should step aside since not one single vote must go to the NR candidates.
The situation before the July 7 voting is highly volatile and things will not be fully clear until the number of candidates running in the second round and their party affiliation are known. It is possible to defeat the far right RN if there is total understanding between NFP and the Macron’s party, there is endorsement from the top, but the Macronites have to show the results of that understanding on the ground.
France is now at the crossroads of history. Either way, history will be made. Either Le Pen’s far right party will take over if the tactical understanding fails or the new popular front will form the government with the help of the centrists. If the NFP government takes over that will be a great development in French history after 1936. In fact the name of NFP refers to the historic left-wing alliance that governed France in 1936 while fascism was arriving in power in other European countries. The Popular Front, which achieved social conquests such as paid vacations, is a historical reference for the French left as important as the Commune or the 1789 Revolution.
In 2024 Europe, far right is on ascendency. In the elections to the European Parliament, the far right parties made a sweeping victory putting the centrists and the social democrats in a corner. Le Pen’s party made big gains in EU polls which led to the snap poll announcement in France by the President Macron. The defeat of the far right in the French national elections on July 7 is thus of crucial importance not only for the future of France but also for the survival of democracy in Europe. (IPA Service)
