In just ten days between October 25 and November 3 this year, four national elections were scheduled. Out of these, elections were held in Brazil and Serbia on October 25 and in Israel on October 27. Only on November 3, the midterm elections will be held in the United States. The bitter campaign between the ruling Republicans and the opposition Democrats has reached the fag end with Democrats having an edge in all opinion polls.
The election results of three have a definite message against authoritarianism. In Brazil, the final results of the run off announced on Sunday night were the vindication of the sovereignty of the Brazilian people against the move of the far right candidate Flavio Bolsonaro to turn the largest economy of Latin America into a colony of the USA. The Brazilian voters convincingly foiled his plan and handed over the Left coalition candidate Lula power for another four years making him the President for the fourth time.
Flavio Bolsonaro has now taken asylum in the U.S. along with his wife and two daughters. He has not yet conceded the defeat, but the difference with his jailed father former President Jair Bolsonaro was that the senior Bolsonaro remained in Brazil after his election defeat in 2022 presidential polls and tried to organize a revolt. He failed and was sentenced by Supreme Court to 27 year imprisonment for his treason.
The immediate upshot of Flavio Bolsonaro’s settling in the US is the dismay in the Brazilian far right. There is no effective far right leader now who can take on President Lula. The far right did well in the first round getting majority in the house of deputies and two- third in senate. Bolsonaro family has lot of elected members in both houses. But no one is being considered as capable to take the leadership of far right in Brazil.
The ruling Left coalition in Brazil is now excited and exuberant as the two other right parties who extended support to Bolsonaro in the runoff are distancing from Flavio’s decision to operate from USA. As of now, the far right in Brazil is despondent. Now, it will depend on the President Lula and the Left coalition how the regime implements its proposed programmes for the common people and further isolates the far right in national politics. The Brazilian Presidential election results have energized the Left in other countries like Argentina, Chile, Columbia, Ecuador to intensify their struggles against the authoritarian pro-Trump regimes.
As regards Serbia, a small country Of Europe formed out of the division of earlier Yugoslavia, the national elections results of Sunday were unprecedented as the protesting students and youth who had been fighting the 14 year old Aleksander Vucic regime got them together under Student Street party banner and defeated the Vucic government convincingly by getting 140 of the 250 member Parliament The group was not really prepared for such a victory and government formation. So talks are going on for the formation of a core team with a leader. The Serbia protests and eventual taking over power have similarities with the developments in Nepal and Bangladesh, but the difference is that the Serbian students and youth did not bring down the Vucic government, they held protest meetings, but waited for the national elections to throw them out.
The Student Street has been working on a 11 point plan to transform the country into a real democracy doing away with the authoritarian style of the Vucic regime in the last 14 years. The new young leaders are saying that they will ensure democratic rights and functioning of institutions in a transparent manner. As one leader explained that primary task should be the social and psychological detoxification of the country.
The success of the students movement in Serbian elections have made in impact on protest movements in other countries including France, Italy, Spain and even Portugal. In France, the students protests have been continuing for more than six weeks. The Macron government has still not negotiated with the protest leaders for a settlement. Rather, security measures have been intensified. The Presidential polls in France are due in May 2027. Both the far right party of Marie Le pen and the Left are trying to take political advantage of the protests for the coming elections. It is still not clear who will be getting maximum benefit out of the continuing students protests in France.
In Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is in a bind as with his 53 seats as against 61 needed to form a government, he is in no way in a position to form the ministry. His rival Eisenkot has got 48 seats but he has better acceptability to Arab parties who together have got 19 seats and have emerged as the decider for forming a coalition govt. Whatever govt finally emerges, it will have to depend on Arab parties. This will mean that there has to be significant dilution of the present Israel policy on Palestinians. Netanyahu’s authoritarianism during his tenure has to be diluted. President Trump also has to get ready for an uncertain future of his Israel policy.
Finally, the U.S. midterm elections are due on November 3. Trump is campaigning in the Republican strongholds which have been threatened by the latest surge in favour of Democrats. Trump’s popularity rating has come down to around 30 per cent. Most of the opinion polls have projected Democratic majority in the House of Representatives and bitter fight for senate seats with slight edge in favour of Democrats. Democrats need only four seats more to get a majority in senate.
Even if Trump’s party loses in midterm, there is no threat to Trump as he has enough veto powers as President. But in the next two years of his term, he has to focus more on domestic issues and take measures to ensure that the Republicans are in a better position to fight 2028 Presidential elections. A midterm election defeat is sure to have a dampening impact on Trump’s authoritarianism. (IPA Service)
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