Four days after the declaration of the state assembly poll results, a close analysis shows that the Congress has not done so badly in the three Hindi heartland states- Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh as is being presented in the national media. In fact compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress has fared better. Out of the 65 total Lok Sabha seats in these three states, the Congress, in terms of results in 2023 state assembly elections, has improved its position substantially, though much below the expectations.
This means that the task of the Congress and its partners has got tougher in the coming Lok Sabha elections, but still it is a close race provided the INDIA bloc takes the right lessons from the November state poll results, do corrective measures and jump into broad based mass campaign with a programme that appeals to the Lok Sabha electorate
Time is now crucial for the opposition parties. As indications suggest, the Lok Sabha elections are likely to be held in March and April this year. In all probability, the announcement will be made in the second week of February and the polling will begin from the second week of March 2024. In 2019, the election announcement was made on March 10, the polling started on April 11 ending on May 19 in seven phases. The results were announced on May 23.
For the Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP leadership, preponing the Lok Sabha polls by one month compared to the 2019 schedule, is based on two factors. First, the Ram Mandir will be inaugurated in Ayodhya on January 22 next year. Already, the BJP and Sangh Parivar have announced massive campaign to take the message of inauguration to the entire country. This campaign to be guided by the RSS will have its outreach in the remotest parts of the country coinciding with the campaign for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
Second, the Narendra Modi government is scheduled to present the interim budget for 2024-25 in the first week of February, possibly on February 1. PM is working on expanding the welfare schemes focusing on women, youth and tribals. PM’s advisers are working on the composition of the proposed schemes which can have the potential of becoming an instant hit with the targeted population. So this combo of Hindutva and welfarism which has given the PM and BJP good dividends in the latest state assembly polls, will be sharpened and more focused for extracting maximum response from the electorate in 2024 polls.
Faced with this enormous challenge from the BJP, the INDIA bloc has to prepare itself for the Maha battle with full united strength without losing any time. In fact, only three months are left before the first phase of the Lok Sabha elections starts. Enough time has been lost by INDIA bloc by not holding the meeting for deciding on seat sharing arrangements and the campaign programme. The first full meeting after the state polls is supposed is now being reschedule in the third week of this month. This meeting has to start the process of electoral strategy so that maximum unity can be achieved among the partners to take on BJP in the 2024 polls.
One thing has to be kept in mind. The one on one formula is not applicable at national level. It has to be state specific. Already a set pattern is there. That has to be finetuned taking into account the latest developments. The seat sharing talks have to be initiated first at state level but there is need for some central core team to facilitate the process because every political party leader at the state level has to take into account his party’s long term interests, so differences will be natural. This can be avoided only by central directive to the state units.
Coming to the specifics of the seat sharing formula, the states can be divided into three broad categories- First, the states where the Congress is the main political party fighting BJP, second, the states where the regional parties are the main challenger, the third where already, the coalition of the INDIA parties is functioning. Apart, there are North Eastern states and Jammu & Kashmir which belong to a different category.
As regards the first category, the Congress is the dominating party among INDIA bloc. So, in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Himachal, Haryana, Karnataka, Telangana, Odisha, taking into account the lessons from the recent assembly polls, the Congress can think of some adjustment with SP in MP and CPI(M) in Rajasthan. The Congress can do some adjustment with CPI in Bastar area of Chhattisgarh. But it has to be taken into account that the other INDIA parties are too small in these states in terms of their respective supporting base. The non-Congress parties should be practical in terms of their demands.
In Odisha, the Congress can have adjustments with CPI and the CPI(M). This alliance with the two left parties will be helpful to the INDIA bloc to fight both BJD and the BJP in the state. BJP is on a resurgent mood in Odisha. If it is possible, in a few marginal seats, even an understanding with BJD can be worked out in the interests of defeating BJP.
In the second category states, in Bengal, Trinamool Congress is the undisputed main challenger to the BJP. Left Front led by the CPI(M) is committed to fight both the BJP and TMC in the state. So the question is now whether the Congress will align with TMC or remain with the CPI(M) le Front. Congress should decide it fast. In any case, in Bengal, Mamata Banerjee is in a position to bring down the BJP Lok Sabha seats substantially in 2024 elections from its 2019 figure of 18.
Delhi and Punjab are the two states ruled by the AAP while the Congress is the second largest INDIA bloc party. BJP is in a bad shape in Punjab but it is resurgent in Delhi. An alliance of AAP and Congress is absolutely needed to defeat BJP in Delhi. BJP got all seven seats in 2019 Lok Sabha polls.
Similarly, in Uttar Pradesh, the Samajwadi Party leader Akhilesh Yadav is the dominating figure in anti-BJP battle in the state which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Rise in the number of INDIA MPs from UP is essential this time. SP has got a front of its own. The party is waiting for the Congress to start seat sharing talks Congress has to negotiate on the basis of its real strength on the ground. The party has to be reconciled that it has to depend on SP for victory. INDIA bloc should assign a veteran like Sharad Pawar or Nitish Kumar to facilitate successful seat sharing arrangement in UP. BJP has targeted 75 seats from UP for 2024 polls. INDIA bloc has to bring down this figure substantially and ensure that maximum anti-BJP votes go to INDIA parties.
In Kerala, the LDF led by the CPI(M) and the UDF led by the Congress will be fighting against each other. BJP is weak, has no seat in Lok Sabha from Kerala. All 20 seats will go to INDIA bloc irrespective of which front gets seats.
For the third category, coalition governments led by INDIA led parties are working in Tamil Nadu, Bihar and Jharkhand. The alliance pattern is set, only marginal adjustments can be made. In Bihar, the Mahagathbandhan has to consider giving a minimum of two seats to the CPI(ML) liberation and one seat to the CPI. Both Nitish Kumar and Tejashwi Yadav are working hard for getting maximum seats for INDIA bloc in the Lok Sabha elections. They can be trusted. In both Tamil Nadu and Jharkhand, no problem is expected in seat sharing arrangements.
Since the campaigning time for 2024 Lok Sabha elections is short, INDIA bloc should explore the possibility of a joint campaign on the basis of its common minimum programme as early as possible. In fact, Congress should think of converting the second Bharat Jodo Yatra into a Yatra on behalf of the INDIA bloc focusing on the urgent issues for the Lok Sabha electorate. There should be a public perception that INDIA parties are together and they will remain together. United we rise, Divided we fall. That should guide the INDIA bloc during the remaining months before the Lok Sabha polls. (IPA Service)
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