The catchline “Phir Aayega Modi” of the saffron ecosystem needs correction. It portrays him as a visionary who will return to usher India to a new and affluent ecosphere — purely as a device to strengthen the perception that Modi is the only saviour. Therefore, people must elect him. But scratch a little more and out pops reality, the catchline is nothing other than perception management, it’s got nothing to do with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s skills-set.
Take a look at what all happened over the last one year. A number of things, actually. The verdict on Article 370. Congress lost its strongholds Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan to the BJP. And fascist rule of the might is now replacing democratic ethics. People were denied their basic rights to dissent and express.
Year 2023 would nonetheless be remembered as, perhaps, the most melancholic period of modern India — a decade of witnessing subversion of the Constitution and lowering the dignity of Parliament. The year 2023 would keep reminding people of how the Modi government altered India’s identity with three criminal communal laws for the Hinduisation of India.
Perception matters, but inventive perception is crucial for determining the fate of electoral battles. Which leader or party would win the election depends on the mechanism to create winnable perception. One thing is absolutely clear, the RSS is far ahead of the Congress in creating this nature of perception even after being aware of the fact that the voters are now no more inclined to vote for Modi and the BJP.
But instead of losing perseverance, they continue to strive and assert. Congress lost the assembly elections to the three states as it had miserably failed to create perception notwithstanding its governments in Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh performing comparatively well. The Congress could not create the perception that both states had Congress governments which meant business and that the government was for the common people, especially for the poor, Dalits and Muslims.
The arrogance and feudal style of functioning of the state satraps simply alienated the common people. Their actions failed to send a positive message to the electorate as a result even those who were opposed to BJP did not show much enthusiasm. The state satraps behaved like the monarchs of old times.
Once the results were out it became apparent that actually the vote share of Congress has been intact despite its defeats. Modi staking his image and credit brought out a paradigm shift in the perception of the people and BJP won. Dalits, OBCs, Muslims nursed their own perceptions. Basic caste contradictions and societal attitude of Congress leaders had a major bearing on the voters. Muslims voters who had rallied behind the Congress in the election could not compensate for its loss of the Dalit and OBC votes.
The RSS and BJP leadership had come to know well before the verdict was out that they had lost vote share in Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. Modi took upon himself the task to boost the level of optimism among the common people by eulogising himself as the main architect for the future win. To a great extent he succeeded in his mission. This is manifest in the eulogy of Modi and projecting the win as his personal gain.
A closer analysis of the assembly elections indicates that in Madhya Pradesh, where Scheduled Caste and Other Backward Classes (OBCs) together make up for around 65% of the population, Congress has lost 4% and 6% of its votes among these communities respectively. But its vote share among STs has increased by 11% as compared to 2018, its highest increase of votes is among the Muslims. In 2018, only 52% of Muslims voted for Congress according to the CSDS-Lokniti Post Poll survey but this time around 85% of Muslims voted for it. A phenomenal increase of around 33% of Muslim votes is the single most reason behind the Congress holding on to 40.40% votes in spite of its loss of votes in its other social bases.
In Chhattisgarh, Congress obtained a vote share of 43.04% in 2018, and in 2023, in spite of its humiliating defeat, retained 42.23% of the vote share. Thus, an argument is being made that Congress’s social base is intact. The Congress continues to have a good social base among the SCs in Chhattisgarh which has been reflected in the increase of SC votes by 6% to 48% when compared to 42% in 2013 as reflected in the CSDS analysis. But its vote share among STs, who constitute 32% of the state population, has decreased by 5%, from 47 to 42%, and among OBC a further decrease of 3%, from 42 to 39%. There has been a phenomenal increase of Muslim votes for the Congress, by 12%-31%, in the three states.
No doubt a self-introspection of the Congress would have exposed the fallacy of the RSS claim. But it did not happen. The Congress could not create a new perceptive narration. Even Congress failed to project INDIA bloc as the new effective alternative. This is the major reason for confusion in the opposition camp. At the Bengaluru meet the leaders had pledged to come out with a common minimum programme which would eventually form the basis for the election manifesto. The leaders are like islands, working on their independent agendas.
If the opposition leaders were really sincere in defeating the BJP they would have abided by the ethics of alliance. The perception of Modi being invincible and a bigger mass leader would have been shattered. Indeed an irony that instead of blaming the Congress leaders for the defeat of their party a perception that Modi’s charisma brought about the victory was created by the Congress leaders.
Creating this perception has attained enormous importance. For winning the 2024 Lok Sabha election while the RSS has been busy creating an imperious perception that country needs a strong leader, the Congress and the opposition leaders are unfortunately groping in the dark. Even at this stage they have not succeeded in resolving this issue. While almost all the opposition leaders are vying with each other for the top job, the BJP is busy formulating the battle strategy.
Opposition is dithering and is in a flux even after nursing bitter realisation that they would be finished for ever if the saffron comes to power in 2024 and Modi becomes the prime minister for the third consecutive term. Ironically their ego is more important than the task to defeat BJP. The big question that the opposition forces would face soon is whether they have the political and ideological strength to counter the saffron brigade. Can they check the subversion of the Constitution and halt the sharp growth of Hindutva bigot at the grassroots.
The RSS and BJP are going to the Lok Sabha polls with the issues of national security, Ram Mandir, pride of Hindu Rashtra, and emotive agendas like CUU, CAA and other divisive slogans. Though Rahul has been consistently emphasising on “their and our” ideologies, it does not appear to have made any significant impact even on the Congress workers, least to speak of the common people, the voters at the ground level.
The INDIA bloc was floated with the mission to ‘Safeguard the idea of India’ but no significant move has been made in this direction. The INDIA alliance, whose name has been chosen to strike a chord of nationalism, has said its goal is to protect democracy. Rahul Gandhi is all set to undertake a 6200 km walkathon from Manipur to Mumbai. It is expected that this would provide strength and substance to INDIA as well to Congress. But ultimately the character and nature of gains depend on the support from Mamata Banerjee, Nitish Kumar, Lalu Yadav, Hemant Soren and Akhilesh Yadav.
It is certain an unaccompanied walk by Rahul would fail to have any impact on the people. If the opposition leaders really sincerely desire that the proposed “Bharat Nyay Yatra” beginning on January 14, should make a significant dent in BJP’s support base, then they must walk together. While the coming together of key regional parties like the Trinamool Congress and the Samajwadi Party with the Congress Party marks a significant political turnaround, the path ahead for the opposition group is formidable.
There is one piece of good news for the Congress and the opposition. A major chunk of BJP leaders, right from the top to the ground level, are feeling suffocated and are gasping for survival. They despise a slave’s life they are forced to live. On December 28 while addressing a day rally of the party, Rahul divulged how a BJP MP met him and narrated his plight. But this is not the case of one MP. Most of the MPs and senior leaders are suffering with this malaise. These people are even ready to quit the party and join the INDIA bloc. But they are scared.
They are finding it tough to repose their trust in INDIA. The sources maintain a condition similar to 1977 is taking shape when Jagjivan Ram, Hemwati Bahuguna and Nandini Satpathy had deserted the Congress, formed Congress for Democracy and joined the Janata Party bandwagon led by Jay Prakash Narayan. Instead of performing gallery shows if the four leaders from Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand and Uttar Pradesh prefer to lead the Yatra, in that situation nothing will be left with BJP to salvage. Winning the maximum number of seats in these four states is crucial for BJP’s survival. (IPA Service)
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