By Gyan Pathak
The suspension of the Director of International Institute for Population Sciences (IIPS) K S James is yet another example that no data, how authentic they are, would be allowed to tarnish the image of PM Narendra Modi and the government he has been leading since 2014. Data scientists are expected to churn out only favourable data, especially before general elections, though they have been finding it too difficult to produce, given the poor performance and worsening ground realities.
Mumbai based IIPS is the nodal agency responsible for providing coordination and technical guidance for the National Family Health Surveys (NFHS) of the Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Presently, NFHS-6 for 2023-24 is in progress, and the publication of the true real time data just before the Lok Sabha election 2024 is considered significant. The suspension of its Director would therefore cause a delay, that would amount to suppression of the real time data, as it has been done in 2018, when the government suppressed the unemployment data just before the Lok Sabha election 2019., The data was leaked to the media that showed the unemployment rate in the country was 45 years high, and this led to resignation of members of the National Statistical Commission including its chairman P C Mohanan.
Importance of the NFHS data is significant for several reasons which can be used not only to contradict the government’s claim on reduction of poverty and almost all aspects of Human development in the country, but also can be potentially used by the opposition as political tool to tarnish the image of the ruling establishment and its leader PM Modi, who is now resorted to a rhetoric – “It is Modi’s guarantee”.
Modi has assured the country in 2014 of providing decent work to all hands, but unemployment rose to 45 years high to 6.1 per cent by the beginning of 2018, what is why suppression of the data before 2019 elections were politically suitable for his government. Now the unemployment rate has been hovering in the range of 7-8.4 per cent and inflation and price rise have brought a severe cost-of-living crisis for the majority of the people, 97.6 crore out of 142 crore population of the country, who can just not afford even healthy diet according to the latest World Bank atlas. Healthcare has become too dear to afford for such deprived people.
The situation has instilled a fear in the ruling establishment that NFHS-6 may completely expose the government claims who have not even come forward with the latest data on poverty after the NSS of 2011-12, but goes on claiming that Modi government has significantly reduced the level of extreme poverty. All data thereafter are estimates from various sources, and therefore, their quality is questionable, as per a recent IMF paper.
Any data that goes against the claims of the government is refuted by the Modi government is well known, which we have also seen in case of COVID-19 actual deaths when WHO put the figure at over 48 lakh but the Modi government claimed it only little over 5 lakhs.
In case of NFHS, we should note that technical assistance is provided by ICR (USA) and other organisations on specific issues. The funding for different rounds of NFHS is provided by USAID, DFID, the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, UNICEF, UNFPA, and of course MoHFW of the Government of India. It goes without saying there is little scope of manipulating its data by the Modi government, as we have seen in the case of several data sets including on employment and unemployment. Hence the best bet for the Centre was to somehow delay the publication of the data until the Lok Sabha election 2024.
The Union Ministry of Health and Family Welfare has said that suspension in not punishment but a way to ensure free and fair investigation. Government has suspended the director of IIPS citing irregularity in recruitment. Such an action was taken against him after he refused to resign when the government has reportedly asked him to do so after certain inconvenient data sets came up in the NFHS-5.
The NFHS-5 (2019-21) has shown that anaemia in the country was on the rise, which shows that women and girls are deprived of healthy food. It meant that poverty level has risen across the country where women and girls have traditionally been given least priority in sharing the available food in the households. There has been reports in media that the Centre have been mulling to drop the anaemia measurement altogether for NFHS-6.
NFHS-5 has also shown that India was nowhere near the open defection free claim of the Centre, since 19 per cent of the household were not using any toilet facility. Barring Lakshdweep, no State or UT had 100 per cent access to toilets.
As for the flagship UjjwalYojna, the claims were found to be untrue since NFHS-5 found 40 per cent households without access to clean cooking fuel. In rural areas about 57 per cent population did not have access to LPG or natural Gas, the survey said.
Modi government’s antagonism about the NFHS data sets is also well known. It has found expression in an article of one of the members of PM’s Economic Advisory Council who claimed that the data collection for NFHS and other such surveys was flawed.
How flimsy the ground of irregularity in appointment of the Director of IIPS is, can be imagined in the backdrop that he was appointed at the post in 2018, and the government could discover the irregularity only now in 2023 to suspend him. What the government was doing in the meantime? Was the government providing good governance?
Modi government is known for suppressing true real time data in other areas too, and in several areas the data are seriously suspected of being even inaccurate or falsified which include data on HIV/AIDs, human trafficking, economic growth, household consumption, and environmental data. The lack of accurate and timely data is a serious problem in the country which makes it difficult to track progress on important issues and develop effective solutions. Freedom of the data scientists should not be allowed to become hostage to ruling political establishment. (IPA Service)
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