By Dr. Gyan Pathak
By agreeing on “equal partnership” formula, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) allies – Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and NCP (Sharad Pawar) – in Maharashtra have taken a lead in preparation for the forthcoming Vidhan Sabha election likely to be held in October-November 2024. The opposition INDIA bloc will thus not only find more time to campaign for the elections but has also signalled the electorate that they are strongly united, while the ruling NDA combine in the state is still struggling to find out a seat sharing formula its allies – BJP, Shiv Sena (Shinde), and NCP (Ajit Pawar) – could agree on.
During the Lok Sabha Election 2024, agreement on seat sharing among the INDIA bloc allies was delayed which consequently delayed their election campaign. Though, the INDIA bloc could will 30 out of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in the state, MVA allies believe they could have bagged more seats had they started their election campaigns earlier. MVA allies have learnt a lesson from that and have agreed on seat sharing formula almost four months ahead of the election. The term of the Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha is to end on November 26, 2024, before which election process is to be completed.
In the recent Lok Sabha election, Congress had won 13 seats, while Shiv Sena (UBT) won 9 and NCP (SP) 8 seats. With the greater number of seats won, Congress has natural right to demand for more seats in the 288 seat Maharashtra Vidhan Sabha, however, they wisely decided to accept the Shiv Sena (UBT) dominance in Maharashtra ground level politics. As per the agreed seat sharing, all the three allies would contest on 96 seats each, and they will be free to share their seats among their local political partners. The basis of this agreement lies in the fact that INDIA bloc partners have established their leading position in more than 150 assembly segments in recently held Lok Sabha election.
Another factor is the shift of loyalty of Dalit and Muslim votes towards INDIA bloc partners. BJP-led Mahayuti in Maharashtra will have tough time to regain its lost support base especially among the Dalits and the OBCs. Maratha reservation quota issues will also return to haunt Mahayuti, as it has severely impacted the political fortune of the NDA in Lok Sabha election. Though ruling alliance has 180 seats in the outgoing Vidhan Sabha, it seems very difficult for them to retain their power, given the rift among the BJP-Shiv Sena (Shinde)-NCP (Ajit Pawar).
INDIA bloc partners are trying to repeat in other four states too, what has been achieved through early seat sharing agreement in Maharashtra. Election to the Haryana and Jharkhand Vidhan Sabhas are also due since their terms are to expire on November 3, 2024, and January 5, 2025. In both the states INDIA bloc allies performed better and were able to trigger a decline in the political fortune of the BJP.
In Haryana, BJP lost 5 seats in Lok Sabha Election 2024 out of all 10 it had won in 2019. BJP has also lost 3 seats out of 11 it had won in 2019. Therefore, there is brighter chance for INDIA bloc in both the states.
There are 90 seats in Haryana Vidhan Sabha and the BJP led NDA is ruling the state with just 46 seats, out of which BJP has 44, HLP 1, and 1 independent. The INDIA bloc has 32 seats at this time out of which 28 seats belong to the Congress and 4 independents supporting the alliance. Other opposition parties include JJP having 10 seats, and INLD 1 seat. Three seats are vacant in the state assembly. It goes without saying that Congress can strengthen the INDIA bloc if it would come out with early seat sharing arrangement in the state.
In Jharkhand, there are 81 Vidhan Sabha seats out of which INDIA bloc has 47 – JMM 27, Congress 18, RJD 1, CPI (ML)(L) 1 seat. NDA has only 30 seats, out of which BJP has 24, AJSU has 3, NCP has 1, and two independents. Four seats are presently vacant. Performances of the INDIA bloc allies have recently improved during the Lok Sabha election. Therefore, if there would be an early seat sharing arrangement among the ruling INDIA bloc partners in the state, it can just wash out the BJP and NDA, with an additional local factor of rise of a new party JBKSS, which has been the primary cause of BJP’s loss in the Lok Sabha election 2024.
Election in the National Capital Territory Delhi will also be held in early 2025, since the term of its Vidhan Sabha is to expire on February 23, 2025. BJP has won all the 7 Lok Sabah seats of the states again in 2024, and Arvind Kejriwal led AAP seems to be in bad shape. Though, AAP has said that INDIA bloc was only for Lok Sabha election, and the party will contest Vidhan Sabha election on its own, it would still be wise for Congress and AAP to contest jointly as INDIA bloc.
The term of the Bihar Vidhan Sabha will expire on November 22, 2025, and the Lok Sabha election result shows rise of INDIA bloc in the state.
Thus, the political configurations in these states are set to change in favour of the INDIA bloc by the end of 2025, which may adversely affect the strength of NDA in Rajya Sabha, apart from the declined morale of the ruling BJP which may consequently adversely affect its political clout in the country. (IPA Service)
