The Lima Chamber of Commerce released the forecast based on estimates prepared by its Institute for Foreign Trade Research and Development (Idexcam), identifying mining as the principal contributor to the anticipated expansion. The projection would take annual exports beyond $110 billion, although the chamber cautioned that growth would remain uneven across major industries.
Mining exports are expected to total approximately $79.497 billion, representing an increase of nearly 32% and accounting for about 72% of Peru’s projected export earnings. The estimates reflect favourable international metal prices and demand associated with renewable energy, electric vehicles and technological infrastructure.
Lead exports are forecast to register the strongest percentage increase, rising 81%, followed by silver at 50%, gold at 38% and copper at 29%. These projections concern export values rather than necessarily corresponding increases in production volumes.
Copper remains particularly important to Peru’s export performance because of its extensive use in electricity networks, industrial equipment and electrification technologies. Gold also contributes substantially to mineral export earnings, while higher prices have increased the value of shipments across several metals.
Official trade figures provide support for the chamber’s assessment. Peru’s Ministry of Foreign Trade and Tourism reported that merchandise exports reached $74.122 billion during January-August 2026, representing growth of 34% compared with the corresponding period of 2025.
Mining shipments accounted for $53.899 billion during those eight months, an increase of 50.6%, according to the ministry. Copper exports were valued at $25.561 billion, while gold shipments reached $18.876 billion. Both commodities benefited from stronger international prices.
The ministry also reported 28 consecutive months of growth in merchandise exports, highlighting the contribution of mining to the expansion recorded during 2026. However, the chamber’s full-year estimates indicate that the pace of growth may differ from the exceptionally strong performance registered during the first eight months.
Beyond mining, the chamber expects petroleum and natural gas exports to increase by 27% this year. The steel and metalworking sector is projected to expand by 15%, while chemical exports could rise by 8%.
Products expected to contribute to these gains include petroleum derivatives, liquefied natural gas, manufactured copper products, organic chemicals and goods manufactured from plastics and rubber.
The projections nevertheless point to weaker performance in agriculture and fisheries, demonstrating the differences between industries benefiting from stronger commodity prices and those confronting changing market conditions.
Agricultural exports are forecast to decline by approximately 4%, principally because of anticipated reductions in the value of cocoa and coffee shipments. Cocoa and related products could register a 45% fall, while coffee exports are projected to decrease by 31%.
The chamber attributed these expected declines partly to the normalisation of international prices. Fruit exports, by contrast, are forecast to increase by 10%, providing some compensation for weaker earnings from other agricultural products.
Fisheries exports are expected to contract by approximately 14%, with fishmeal shipments projected to fall by 34% and mollusc exports by 13%. The chamber identified climatic conditions and supply restrictions as important risks affecting the sector.
Such differences underline the sensitivity of Peru’s export earnings to commodity prices, agricultural markets and environmental conditions. Stronger mineral prices can increase export values without equivalent growth in physical shipments, while falling agricultural prices can reduce earnings even where production remains substantial.
Idexcam warned that its forecasts remain exposed to international price volatility, geopolitical tensions, climatic anomalies, supply constraints and domestic logistical difficulties. These factors could affect the final export figures during the remaining months of 2026.
The chamber called for accelerated investment in logistics infrastructure, broader export diversification and stronger risk management to address vulnerabilities across productive sectors. It also emphasised improving the competitiveness of non-traditional exports, particularly businesses seeking greater access to international markets.
The institute’s projections identify several manufactured products as potential contributors to export growth alongside raw materials. These include copper manufactures, organic chemicals and plastic and rubber products, whose performance will depend on market demand and operating conditions.
For agricultural exporters, the chamber’s estimates indicate that stronger fruit shipments may only partly offset the anticipated reductions in cocoa and coffee earnings, leaving the sector facing a modest overall contraction during 2026.
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