By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Maharashtra, the second biggest state in India after Uttar Pradesh in terms of Lok Sabha seats, is heading for a rather complex electoral battle, between the NDA alliance (Mahayuti) and INDIA bloc (Maha Vikas Aghadi or MVA), and hence the outcome will likely to throw up surprises. Both the NDA and INDIA blocs are late in finalizing their seat-sharing arrangements on account of numerous hurdles. The state sends 48 Lok Sabha members and the stakes are very high for both sides.
Presently, the BJP has a lot to lose as it was the largest political party in Maharashtra after 2019 Lok Sabha election, winning 23 seats. The party also bagged the largest share of votes at 27.59 percent. The BJP had contested 2019 in alliance with undivided Shiv Sena, which later deserted the NDA to form government in alliance with the Congress, and the NCP.
Obviously, BJP’s number of seats and share of votes were set to decline, which prompted the party to engineer defections in the Shiv Sena, which split in two, and one of the factions, Shiv Sena (Shinde), was won over by the BJP to form the state government of the Mahayuti. But with even this not enough to win more Lok Sabha seats, as well as a higher vote share, the BJP engineered defections from the NCP, and one the NCP (Ajit Pawar) faction switched over to the NDA, and is now part of the state government.
BJP hoped that this would help it to win a greater number of seats and share of votes. However, the BJP is now finding seat-sharing with Shiv Sena, Shinde faction, and with NCP, Ajit Pawar faction, difficult. In fact, the BJP may be heading for a tougher electoral battle in 2024 than it had in 2019.
This, when the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi are seeking a third term. PM Modi has claimed BJP would win 370 seats, and the NDA 405. In the process, the BJP is pressurizing its allies across the country, even trying to clip the wings of NDA partners so that it can contest a greater number of seats to increase its national tally from the 303 it won in 2019. This authoritarian attitude of the BJP has miffed all its allies, leading to delays in striking seat-sharing deals in every major state, and Maharashtra is among them.
In 2019, the BJP had contested 25 seats and won 23, while its ally Shiv Sena contested 23 and won 18 seats. Overall, the NDA won 41 seats, leaving 7 for the UPA, 4 for the NCP and 1 for the AIMIM, and an Independent. The troubles in seat sharing being faced both by NDA and INDIA bloc has risen on account of the splits in Shiv Sena and NCP.
The split groups have been demanding seats on their historical trends. The NDA and the INDIA bloc will be announcing their final seat-sharing deals this weekend while the problems still persist.
Developments in the NDA suggest that the BJP will be contesting 31 Lok Sabha seats, while its partner in Mahayuti, the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, will be contesting on 13, and NCP (Ajit Pawar) on four seats. Ajit Pawar is demanding more seats apart from the four – Baramati, Raigarh, Shirur, and Parbhani. The undivided Shiv Sena had contested 23, and the undivided NCP contested 19 seats. It goes without saying that the BJP has clipped their wings by apportioning 13 and 4 seats each for both.
Such humiliating situations also are seen across the country for BJP allies, no wonder, it may affect the national tally of NDA partners, which even PM Narendra Modi expected to be 35. It is also uncertain how much an ally under humiliation can support the BJP candidates on the ground. BJP is therefore running a risk this time.
If we look at the seat sharing in the perspective of the opposition INDIA bloc, there would be 25 seats where BJP will be in direct, very close one-on-one contest with it. At only 6 seats, BJP will have a little edge over INDIA block Candidates. While there will be only 17 seats on which INDIA block would be in direct contest with the NDA allies, Eknath Shinde at 13 and Ajit Pawar at 4 seats. This scenario is disturbing for BJP and its allies.
The INDIA bloc, which is MVA in Maharashtra, has in principle agreed on seat sharing for 44 seats while there are still differences on 4 seats. The Congress and the Shiv Sena (Uddhav Balasaheb Thackeray) would be contesting 18 seats each while the NCP would be contesting from 11 and the Swabhimani Paksha from 1 seat. As for the differences on the 4 seats of Mumbai-South Central, Bhiwandi Nashik, and Ramtek are concerned, they are likely to be resolved before March 17, the date on which INDIA bloc is scheduled to hold a joint public rally in Mumbai, to begin the opposition’s election campaign.
Ground level political situation seems to be shifting away from the NDA alliance, which can be seen even in the latest survey of India TV-CNX results. Though the survey kept NDA on the lead with a seat projection of 35, it should be noted that it would be below the 41 which it had won in 2019. Another India Today-CVoter survey has placed NDA trailing with a projection of only 22 seats in February, and a vote share of only 40 percent. BJP and its allies in Maharashtra are on a slippery electoral pitch in the one-on-one contests with INDIA bloc on every seat. (IPA Service)
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