Arabian Post Staff -Dubai
Markets across the Gulf and beyond plunged on Friday following a sharp military escalation after Israel struck Iranian nuclear and military sites, triggering drone counter‑attacks by Iran and a broader risk‑off reaction among investors.
Dubai’s benchmark index tumbled 5.1%, its steepest single‑day loss since May 2022, while Abu Dhabi’s dropped 3.5% before paring losses. The rout extended into Israel, where the shekel slid as much as 3.5% against the dollar, with long‑dated Israeli bonds and select regional government debt also weakening.
Commodity markets mirrored investor anxiety. Brent crude surged over 6%, touching its highest level in nearly five months, as traders assessed the risk of supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Gold likewise rallied, reaching two‑month highs as capital flowed into safe‑haven assets.
Airline stocks were among the hardest hit. Air Arabia shares plunged more than 4%—some reports suggest nearly 8%—as carriers rerouted flights away from airspace over Iran, Israel, Iraq and Jordan. Regional exchanges in Riyadh and Doha were closed on Friday, with trading set to resume on Sunday amid anticipation of continued volatility.
The market shockwaves reverberated worldwide. Europe, Asia and US indices all registered dips: the S&P 500 dropped roughly 0.4% mid‑day, the Dow slipped nearly 1.8% and the Nasdaq around 1.3%, while Tokyo’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng also declined.
Analysts warned that while markets historically absorb such shocks fairly quickly, the sustained threat of conflict brings inflation and growth risks. Chris Scicluna of Daiwa Capital Markets noted the initial oil spike “hasn’t been too extreme” but cautioned that a sustained rise toward US $80 oil would be problematic for central banks. Meanwhile, Tariq Kakish of FH Capital pointed out that geopolitical instability remains “the key factor affecting investors’ sentiments”.
Concerns centred on the Strait of Hormuz, which channels approximately one‑third of global seaborne oil, raising the potential for disruption. Demand for insurance on tankers in the Gulf surged, and traders remain on edge over possible Iranian retaliation targeting shipping or oil infrastructure. However, OPEC+ sources suggest that Saudi Arabia and others retain sufficient spare capacity and are monitoring the situation closely.
Financial markets also showed classic risk‑off behaviour: US Treasury bonds rallied even as yields ticked higher, reflecting investor concerns about energised inflation, as per Axios commentary. The dollar strengthened, while gold and the Swiss franc benefited from increased flight‑to‑safety demand.
In Asia, the ASX 200 slipped modestly, offsetting losses in financials and consumer sectors with gains in energy and mining stocks. In Mumbai, Reliance Industries’ shares fell nearly 1.8% as Brent crude surged past $75 per barrel amidst the tensions.
Political and economic analysts emphasise two themes: the possibility of an enduring inflation shock from energy price escalation, and the risk of prolonged conflict dragging in wider regional powers. While some argue Gulf states may help mitigate supply-side shocks via increased production, others highlight that even modest increases in oil prices could influence global inflation and central bank policy.
Despite the turbulence, multiple analysts noted past flare‑ups between Israel and Iran tended to cool within weeks, with markets rebounding once diplomatic pathways re‑opened. Yet this episode differs: it involves overt attacks deep into Iranian territory, targeting nuclear and ballistic infrastructure, and marking a new phase in the conflict. The outcome may recalibrate norms for military engagement in the region—and investor expectations alongside them.
