By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Rise in unemployment rate in India again in April 2023 should serve as a wake-up call for PM Narendra Modi led ruling establishment, since it shows the upward trend since the beginning of 2023, a year when both the domestic and global economies have been projected to decline to a new low.
CMIE data shows that unemployment rated increased in 2023 to 8.11 per cent from 7.8 per cent in March 2023, and 7.14 per cent in January 2023, on moving 30 days average basis on current weekly status. It means workers are desperately seeking jobs that has swelled the workforce to 467.6 million, which was an increase of 25.5 million in a month. Labour market could not accommodate them and hence the rise in unemployment rate. The number of unemployed workers rose from 34.5 million in March to 37.9 million in April. Unemployment in rural India was as high as 7.34 per cent while in urban India it increased to 9.8 per cent.
All these are indicative of very difficult days ahead for the workforce in India, that has been suffering from a grave unemployment crisis in the country for the last eight years under Modi rule, particularly after his infamous demonetization of November 2016 that devastated the labour market which never recovered thereafter.
India had been suffering from unemployment crisis even before PM Narendra Modi came to power in 2014. In the year 2012-13, the Labour Bureau Survey Report of the Union Ministry of Labour and Employment had put the unemployment rate as high as 4.7 per cent. Everybody found it unacceptably high, including Narendra Modi, who campaigned against the UPA government led by PM Manmohan Singh of the Congress. During the election campaign, Narendra Modi, first assured 1 crore jobs a year, but soon started talking about work with dignity for all hands, which was interpreted as 2 crore jobs as per requirement of the country to accommodate all unemployed.
PM Narendra Modi is keeping mum now when in his premiership unemployment stood at 8.11 per cent in April 2023 as against 4.7 per cent prior to his becoming prime minister of this country. Obvious he has went back on his promise. Much worse, he does not want to address the unemployment crisis of his own making in the right earnest. He has been organizing employment fairs, but only to cover up his failure in keeping his own words.
Much worse, he shows little concern about the crisis. For example, the 46th session of the Indian Labour Conference, which is the higher tripartite body for labour related policies, held in 2015 has recommended that India must have a National Employment Policy (NEP) to address the unemployment crisis. However, Centre has not any plan to have any National Employment Policy in the country, as the Union Ministry of Labour has informed the Parliament of India.
After the implementation of demonetization, when unemployment started rising, the Centre announced that the “employment data collection in India will soon undergo a major revamp. A high level expert panel had recommended an end to the five-year employment surveys by NSSO. NSSO came with the news data for 2017-18, which found the usual unemployment rate in the country had increased to 6.1 per cent on usual status basis, which was 45 years high since 1972-73, when it was 1.6 per cent, which has risen from 0.7 per cent in 1961 as per a World Bank study.
Usual status of unemployment always remains low, which was 6.1 per cent in 2017-18, as per the first Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS). However, current weekly status of unemployment at that time was as high as 8.8 per cent. A World Bank study has put the weekly rate at 4.3 per cent in 1972-73and daily rate of unemployment at 8.3 per cent. Centre’s PLFS gives us only usual and current weekly statuses.
Current Weekly Status (CWS) unemployment rate for 2018 was 9.1 per cent which stood at 9 per cent in 2019 when PM Modi returned to power for the second term. In 2021, it rose to 9.3 per cent. Government attribute it to COVID-19 pandemic but, it has just worsened the worse unemployment crisis already prevailing before the outbreak of the pandemic.
During October-December 2021, CWC unemployment rate for all ages was 8.8 per cent which improved to 7.2 per cent during the same months in 2022. For all the workers above 15 years of age the unemployment rate in the last quarter of 2022 was 7.2 per cent, as per the government data of PLFS. CMIE says it stood at 8.11 per cent in April 2023, which clearly indicate that that unemployment crisis has worsened.
Youth unemployment rate has reached a frightening level. PLFS data puts it at 18.6 per cent for October-December 2022, and the later quarterly data for January-March 2023 is awaited. Youth male unemployment during this period was 16.6 per cent while female youth unemployment stood at 25.1 per cent.
It is a very dangerous trend. The Centre must not hide this frightening ground reality under Modi’s rhetoric during his employment fairs and election campaigns, since the unemployment along with cost of living crisis could have devastating effect on working households. (IPA Service)
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