By Ashis Biswas

Within the South Asian context, a noticeable coarsening of diplomatic discourse among four countries has occurred, following the violent regime change in Bangladesh, a brief encounter involving India and Pakistan and sporadic skirmishes between Pakistan and Afghanistan. A new political alignment, whose contours will be clearer after the Bangladesh general elections, is gradually emerging in the region.

Whether the assumption of power in Bangladesh by a new, elected government in 2026 will lead to lasting political stability and consolidation of democratic forces in South Asia, remains to be seen. Much will depend on the resolution of the emergent Pak-Afghan conflict and within Pakistan, the Baluchi struggle for independence.

Since the Northwest Pakistan-Central Asia zone has been witness to prolonged historical conflict and power struggles involving numerous warring tribes and major foreign powers, it may not be advisable to rush to a definite conclusion regarding future peace or stability.

The recent dust-up between India and Pakistan remains an unfinished business, as far as India is concerned. A fresh flare-up in the short/medium term cannot be ruled out.

Given this backdrop, the present acrimonious exchange of statements between India and Bangladesh concerning their respective poor record of human rights violations can be expected to continue. The greater responsibility for tensions affecting bilateral Indo-Bangla relations lies with Bangladesh. Its new unelected ruling elite, apparently oblivious of its own limitations as an interim authority, even, launched a provocative campaign in China to promote the secession of India’s Northeastern states.

Since there was no reaction from China on the matter, nor the slightest interest shown by the Indian northeastern states themselves, even the relatively thick-skinned temporary leaders of Bangladesh, have been reduced to silence. India, in contrast, has shown commendable restraint by ignoring the amateurish efforts made by the present rulers of Bangladesh, apparently to invite Chinese intervention within the ambit of Indo-Bangla relations.

The abject diplomatic failure of the Yunus-led government to play off China against India led to derisory comments from established political parties within Bangladesh itself. Senior Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leaders reminded Dr Yunus in a press statement that there were unwritten conventions/guidelines that should not be violated by either side in any government-to-government communication. Not that this public rebuke had made much difference to Dr Yunus’s functioning.

As a new year begins the bigger countries in the region find themselves impacted by an acute political turmoil that, in the absence of collective statesmanship among current regional leaders currently, in power, may keep future generations engaged for years in their pursuit of peace and order.

India, the automatic regional leader thanks to its size, population and growing economy, finds itself struggling to stave off three hostile neighbours on its East and West. Relations with China and Pakistan remain as uneasy as ever. Now Bangladesh seems keen to join their ranks. Few observers accept at its face value the official stand on foreign relations announced by Bangladesh: It would try to expand its diplomatic outreach in South Asia and beyond, reversing its earlier India-centric thrust in foreign policy matters.

In concrete terms, this has meant developing closer ties with Pakistan, Turkiye and the Islamic countries in general, avoiding Russia, and India in particular.

There are not too many positive elements that India can look forward to, except the possibility of a slight relaxation in its tensions with China, courtesy their membership in the BRICS forum. Also, the possibility of some improvement in Indo-Bangla bilateral relations in the medium term cannot be ruled out, in case the Jamaat-e-Islami and its associates fail to win power in the general elections.

However, India may have ensured some gains in terms of diplomacy and influence in its ‘Near West’ neighbourhood. By establishing good relations with the ruling Taliban government in Afghanistan, India has effectively offset much of Pakistan’s benefits accruing from its new found bonhomie with Bangladesh.

The symbiotic nature of Indo-Afghan ties at present seems to be working well. India is helping Afghanistan in developing its domestic health and education-related infrastructure, powering its overall socio-economic progress. In return, India will find it easier to access the markets of the CIS states, through Afghan territory if necessary. This should also help India to offset some of the disadvantages in the transportation of its export items by using the Chabahar port, because of continuing US-led West’s tensions with Iran.

Contrast this with the position of Bangladesh. Thanks to its stress on developing closer economic links with Pakistan, Bangladesh may find itself blindsided on its west, as its earlier access through India by rail, road and air may well be reduced, especially in the event of a victory for a JEI-run coalition in the coming elections.

In domestic politics too, India despite its own serious problems of a struggling economy, growing unemployment and the worrisome divide between rich and poor, shows up relatively better than either Pakistan or Bangladesh, in terms of social development.

Unlike Delhi, Islamabad will remain dependant on Beijing and Washington for years to come. Its economy has gone from bad to worse. Its image of a terror sponsor internationally remains as negative as ever. This is a major handicap for its future generations.

And now it has to contend with the serious challenge posed by the strong Baluchi movement for freedom. Even the financial relief it is seeking from Bangladesh by increasing its exports is not working out well. To settle its international debts, the country is not too far from resorting to assets-selling to the donor countries, as Sri Lanka has been forced to do vis-a-vis China.

As for Bangladesh, it has won some respite financially with Dr Yunus wrangling some relief from various Western financial banks, and institutions. But Dhaka is finding it extremely difficult to check growing double-digit inflation, which is already the highest in the region.

Further, by antagonising India unnecessarily, it is already facing a grim situation is meeting its growing demand for power, and sourcing its crucial raw material supplies (like yarn for its garments production). Already its food imports have become costlier and ditto the transportation of its export goods, as India has withdrawn certain facilities. Several major India-aided infra railway projects etc have been stalled.

For average Bangladeshi citizens, basic medical expenses and cost of essential treatment for the elderly people have increased majorly. Facilities they earlier enjoyed by travelling to India are not available as before. Those who can afford it are accessing health-related facilities in China or Singapore, but it does involve increased costs and time consuming preparations.

The younger generation has been hit hard as scholarships and other facilities Delhi had offered for Bangladeshis to get accommodation in India’s well-known institutions will not be available as before.

“By any simple cost-benefit analysis, the withdrawal of facilities earlier provided by India is going to cost Bangladesh heavily”, according to Shounak Mukherjee, Kolkata-based economist.

Even strategically, Bangladesh will now have to deal with two unfriendly, if not hostile neighbours, Myanmar and India, which surrounds it to its north, west and south side. Earlier, it had only Myanmar to contend with.

As stated before, the outcome of the Feb 2026 elections would be significant for South Asia as a whole for various reasons. For now, a win for the BNP-led coalition may suit India’s interests more favourably, now that the Awami League has been banned. In case, a pro Jamaat government is elected with Dr Yunus doing some backseat driving politically, India should be prepared to face hard time on its East. (IPA Service)

The article Disturbing Decline Of Diplomacy Across South Asia Bodes Ill For All appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

The article Disturbing Decline Of Diplomacy Across South Asia Bodes Ill For All appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Ashis Biswas

How serious is the slogan for wresting the seven sister states in India’s northeast region, raised by Islamic extremists in Bangladesh, for New Delhi? For a proper assessment of the political challenge this poses for India, a brief study of background information is necessary.

Bangladesh sought to revive old links with Pakistan towards the end of Sheikh Hasina’s 2019-24 tenure as Prime Minister. Meanwhile, the ruling establishment in Islamabad was expanding its tenuous intelligence network in India’s Northeast states. In a sense, Pakistan already had a foothold close to the NE region. Its powerful intelligence organisation, the ISI, had established a strong presence in Nepal. It was there that its hijacking of an Indian Airlines plane in 1999 was conceived and executed.

Bangladesh had also upgraded its diplomatic ties with Turkiye, a consistent backer of Pakistan in its dispute with India over Kashmir. Ties between Ankara and Dhaka were close, as visiting Turkish delegations and officials suggested setting up arms manufacturing centres in Bangladesh.

Meanwhile, at home the ruling Awami League (AL) was losing ground over its alleged corruption and a poor human rights violation record, which had alienated the West. The Awami League enjoyed little international support, except in India. Agitations by opposition forces like the Bangladesh Nationalist party (BNP), the Jamaat-e-Islami JEI) etc, were becoming more aggressive, drawing in more support.

As Prime Minister, Hasina could not afford a growing alienation among common people within Bangladesh, on top of her isolation internationally. She encouraged the growth of new upstart outfits like Hifazat-e-Islam (HI) which she used as a stick to beat down the BNP! (Shades of the Congress led by late Prime Minister India Gandhi to support the JS Bhindranwale-led militant Sikhs to keep the Akali Dal down!)

Apparently, Ms Hasina misread the bitter political message implicit in Mrs. Gandhi’s tragic death: A short-sighted policy of flirting with political extremism never worked in the long term for secular ruling parties.

Already in Bangladesh, the signs were ominous: for Sheikh Hasina and the Awami League, long before August 5, 2025.

Pro Hifazat elements forced the Awami League government to remove public sculptures and murals built on secular themes from prominent places. They exerted pressure on the judiciary. They ran rampant among student activists in the universities and colleges, posing a threat to Chhatra League, affiliated to the Awami League.

Radicalised youths in the HI and JEI gave notice of their newly achieved domination in Bangladesh in 2021 itself. They carried out an unusually violent anti-India demonstration for two days running, forcing the visiting Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to curtail his scheduled programmes. The genie had escaped from the bottle, as far as the Awami League was concerned.

The anti-India demonstrators had exposed the helplessness of the Bangladesh police, its rapid action battalions or the BGB guards. Further, they served notice to the government of India as well about their growing clout. Surprisingly, there was little reaction from the Indian government to the public heckling PM Modi had suffered in Dhaka.

Bangladeshi analysts explained that Pakistani agents who functioned openly as they met rising younger leaders in Dhaka and the districts, had performed their task very well. The overall dominance of India in Bangladesh had been challenged for the first time and Delhi could do little.

In retrospect, policymakers both in Dhaka and Delhi can be censured for their complacency, their incompetence in the face of a rapidly growing menace of Islamic extremism among Bangladeshi youths. They overlooked or ignored the new major political trend emerging in Asia and Africa, wherein students/youths played a big role in various West-sponsored ‘colour revolutions’ in other countries, bringing down one ruling regime after another.

Even the lessons of the successful coup carried out by anti-Russian forces in Ukraine in 2014– in this case, the increasing radicalisation of youths armed by the West – were apparently not learnt. Bottom line for ruling parties, there should be no collaboration with political extremism, which mostly devours its sponsors.

However, it must not be assumed that as new anti-Indian leaders and organisations, which have appeared in Bangladesh in the shape of Dr Yunus and parties like the National Citizens Party (NCP), have already consolidated their present authority. Far from it. For all their provocative rhetoric about cutting off the Indian Northeast region and taking over parts of West Bengal from India, they have little striking power vis-a-vis India, even if they join forces with Pakistan.

It is significant that so far China has not given any reaction to the Bangladeshi call to ‘free the seven sister states’. Only a section of the Pakistan mainstream media has reported Dr. Yunus’s call. But no senior official/spokesperson in Pakistan has commented on the issue. Russia says relations with Bangladesh will continue as before. There has been no official reaction from the EU/US bloc countries.

Significantly, even within Bangladesh, no major leader or party has bothered to comment on Yunus’s demand to carve the NE states out of India.

Coupled with the total silence on the issue from the rest of the world, this suggests that the Indian government need not take Yunus’s capers very seriously.

As for the NE region’s response to the call for seceding from India, it is a tempting for newspersons to ask Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma to express his views on Dr. Yunus’s words on the NE or about Bangladesh in general.

In case Dr. Yunus has forgotten basic details about the seven sister states, he needs to be reminded that Assam is the largest state in India’s Northeast. He should understand that Bangladeshis are not exactly popular in Assam. Special detention centres have been built in Assam and other states to detain illegal Bangladeshis prior to their deportation to Bangladesh.

And the outlook for Bangladeshis is not much better in, Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram or Meghalaya.

Major student/youth organisations in the Northeast, like the AASU, the Khasi students” union, the NESO and the AJYCP, have always opposed illegal infiltration from Bangladesh. They have been in the forefront of mass agitations against infiltration from Bangladesh.

Therefore, except for visiting Bangladeshis travelling in India (including its NE region!) with proper documentation, it is not irrational to suggest that dubious non visitor Bangladeshis generally arouse suspicion and distrust among common people here, with due apologies to Dr. Yunus, Chief Advisor to the interim Government of Bangladesh. (IPA Service)

The article Bangladesh’s Bluster On Northeast India: Empty Threats, Or More? appeared first on Latest India news, analysis and reports on Newspack by India Press Agency).

The article Bangladesh’s Bluster On Northeast India: Empty Threats, Or More? appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Ashis Biswas

In Bangladesh, a bunch of unelected interim ‘rulers’ led by economist Mohammad Yunus is desperately anxious to cosy up to Pakistan, from which their country had seceded violently only five decades ago. In a strange reversal of their own (instant?) history, Bangladeshis have shown an apparent inability to exist and function as an independent, sovereign country in South Asia — only, the irony of the present situation has been lost among Dhaka-based authorities for the moment.

Consider the facts: Bangladeshis, as former Pakistanis, were regarded as poor, third rate ‘citizens’ in the Eastern wing of an Islamic republic in 1947. Fed to the teeth over their exploitation, they decided in 1970-71 to secede, totally rejecting Pakistan. During subsequent decades despite occasional tensions, they broadly aligned themselves with India — until a few months ago. In achieving their freedom, they paid a very high price in terms of lives lost, struggling against the ruthless Pakistani army.

Suddenly now, in 2025, some Bangladeshis led by Dr. Mohammad Yunus and team, have decided that they would be better off living with the much derided and hated Pakistanis, once more! Suddenly, India has emerged as the new anti-Bangladeshi villain in South Asia, in the official Bangladeshi political narrative, after the anti Awami League (AL) coup of August 5 2024.

It is not surprising therefore that India and even non- resident Indians with no links with GOI, are being excoriated for many of the systemic problems plaguing Bangladesh. These range from a large trade gap in bilateral deals to a drying up of international rivers and even pressures against Bangladesh in its dealings with the IMF and the World Bank!

Whatever the explanation for the spectacular eruption of anti India anger, the Yunus-led administration recently sponsored a controversial visit of the Chief of ISI, the powerful intelligence agency of Pakistan with a none-too-savoury reputation to Bangladesh.

Given the present chill in Indo-Bangla ties, most Dhaka-based commentators/analysts have commented on the strong, unfriendly signals being sent by Dhaka to Delhi. The ISI visit comes in the wake of a few other steps already announced with much fanfare in Dhaka. The caretaker regime is in a tearing hurry to befriend the Shahbaz Sharif-led Government in Pakistan.

It has already relaxed visa regulations for Pakistani visitors and is arranging more courses in Bangladesh for the promotion of Urdu.. Cultural exchanges and tie-ups are being encouraged. New text books, omitting the role played in the freedom movement by the late Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, Tajuddin Ahmed, or even Ziaur Rahman, are being circulated among students. Naturally India’s helpful role and contribution to the Bangladesh freedom struggle, its support to Rahman’s Awami league, the martyrdom of at least 10,000 Indian soldiers during the Indo-Pak war, have received short shrift, according to reports.

In short, within the first five decades of its rollercoaster existence, Bangladesh has been forced by a group of totally unmandated ‘authorities’ to rewrite — and even falsify — its own very brief history, This had not happened even under the tenure of former Gen Ershad, who ran a spell of virtual army rule in the country.

Analysts find it alarming that present ‘authorities” of Bangladesh who are constitutionally answerable to none, have not flinched from distorting /suppressing well documented established facts of their own contemporary history, to please their domestic hardline pro-Islamist lobbies. This is the section of pro Jamati forces that has always remained close to Pakistan, cherishing the visions of a stricter, Shariat-dominated order emerging in Bangladesh.

This is why In an Orwellian twist in Bangladesh’s history, it has become necessary to forget what had happened during the tenure of the Awami League, From now on Pakistan would receive top priority as the new government in Bangladesh seeks to introduce “bold reforms’ and major functional changes as an’ independent’ country, at home and abroad. If influential circles in India are upset about this, too bad — they would have to deal with the new Bangladesh.

This is the broad message emanating from Dhaka by Yunus and team, as of now. The truth is somewhat different, and also less palatable:

Until 1947, East Pakistanis had been manipulated and exploited by their tormentors in the West. Then, following their independence, for several decades the country followed good relations with India, appreciating the bigger country’s help during the freedom struggle and its economic/other assistance. Now in 2025, people ruling Bangladesh feel they must follow Pakistan again, once more taking an abrupt 180 degree turn, In other words, it must follow the lead of its regional neighbours, India or Pakistan!

This presents a total contrast with the way Nepal or Sri Lanka have conducted themselves in South Asia, dealing with India, Pakistan or China.

In closing the door on India’s face firmly, after the August 5 2024 anti-AL coup, Bangladesh, according to some observers may have already gone too far. Such a view persists despite Dhaka quietly reversing earlier efforts launched officially and unofficially, to redefine economic/trade ties with India. Of late, Bangladesh has resumed buying essential items like rice and vegetables in bulk from India again, but only after its efforts to secure such items from countries like Pakistan or Thailand at affordable prices did not work out.

The open display of bad taste and sheer cussedness in certain recent dealings with India by Bangladesh demonstrates, a lack of balance and an absence of normal diplomatic courtesies in bilateral ties. Its invitation to the ISI cannot be seen to be anything other than a major provocation and a deliberate insult to GOI. The move also desecrates the memory of thousands of Bangladeshi freedom fighters/martyrs who had been killed while fighting Pak troops in 1970-71 war of independence. Naturally, this has not gone unnoticed even among leaders of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) which has not supported the total falsifying of recent history by the Yunus-led cabal

It matters little whether Bangladeshi freedom fighters were supporters/workers of the AL or the BNP. Such is the insensitivity of the present unelected ‘rulers’ is that they cannot even appreciate that they were ridiculing their own freedom struggle and slandering their own sacrifices and political struggles

Nor is the ISI visit the only instance of its kind. Bangladesh recently cancelled at the last moment its earlier agreement with India to send a 50-strong delegation of judicial employees and .officers for a training course. Coming on the heels of constant Bangladeshi threats to review and cancel all bilateral trade and transit agreements, along with existing river water sharing agreements, this was yet another deliberate snub against Delhi.

It redounds to the credit of the social media network of Bangladesh that critical questions are being increasingly addressed to the interim administrators. The mainstream media, as with such media in other countries, has not quite been as boldly critical of the new rulers as the smaller operators. (IPA Service)

The article A Pro-Pakistan Wave Is Sweeping Bangladesh Under The Interim Govt Of Dr. Mohammad Yunus appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Ashis Biswas

Sikh separatist Amritpal Singh is the winner from Punjab’s Khadoor Sahib parliamentary constituency, putting the central government in a fix. The government appears undecided on what should be done with him. Speculation is rife over whether he would be released on interim bail from Dibrugarh Central jail in Assam, where he is being held, or other measures are under consideration.

Whatever the explanation, the government’s silence is telling. Neither the Union Home Ministry nor the Central Election Commission had reckoned with the possibility of a pro-Khalistani winning the election. Even a bland official reaction, considering that a new government is being installed, would have helped quell political gossip.

The fact is, Amritpal Singh’s victory caught the Government of India off guard. Top Bharatiya Janata Party policymakers were busy installing the “NDA coalition” in New Delhi. The transition wasn’t difficult but attention couldn’t be divided. The new NDA government had to hit the deck running and the BJP-dominated administration had no time to spare for the Khalistani enabler.

Besides, the new government is up against strong headwinds. The terrorist-killings of Hindu pilgrims in the Reasi district of Kashmir, where elections had just been held, on the day Narendra Modi was being sworn-in as Prime Minister, was a stark warning that the situation on the Line of Control was far from stable. The hand of Pakistan in the terrorist strike cannot be ruled out.

The timing of the terror strike was chosen meticulously. The Pakistan-based terrorist organisation’s wanted to test the ‘new’ Narendra Modi government. It was a blatantly provocative action against India. When Pulwama occurred, Modi had spoken out strongly and had ordered a devastating counterattack on Balakot across the LoC. Modi’s party BJP held 303 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha at the time.

Today, the situation is different. The BJP has lost 63 seats and has a tally of only 240 seats after the 2024 Lok Sabha election. Is Modi 3.0 in a position to deal with provocations from across the border? The Reasi terror attack is a unique challenge. No wonder it took the newly installed Modi government all the time to react.

For the record, it is not Pakistan alone, China, the US and EU countries would also like to know more about how the new NDA government fares against specific troubles. The Congress has condemned the Reasi incident. But questions are also being asked whether the abrogation of Article 370, ending the special status of Jammu and Kashmir, had really worked? Most observers familiar with Modi’s style of functioning are convinced that the GoI would respond effectively, choosing its own time and place.

Pakistan’s (or the ISI’s) involvement in the Reasi ambush has to be established. But its support for the Khalistani anti-India agitation cannot be denied. So, what should be done with Amritpal Singh? The surge in anti-Indian activities of Sikh separatists in Canada or the UK – targeting Indian missions, cultural centres and temples – are part of a regional political agenda that was drawn up much earlier.

Observers point to the liberalization of some years ago by Pakistan, during the Imran Khan regime, to facilitate the movement of and visits by international Sikh pilgrims to the revered Kartarpur Sahib site as a critical turning point in the Khalistan agitation. A few Kolkata-based analysts had predicted that the GoI should brace itself for a renewal of the Khalistani anti-India diplomatic offensive.

The place is too close to the Indian border for India’s comfort. The easing of rules for Sikhs had led to a rise in the number of visiting Indian Sikhs, including pro-Khalistani elements.

The challenges that GoI/Indian diplomats faced later in Canada and elsewhere have confirmed the apprehensions expressed earlier. Indeed the barely concealed Western support for the Khalistanis in the UK, Canada or among a section of US diplomats has been nothing short of a revelation, part of a painful learning experience, for India.

For all its lip support to India as the world’s largest democracy, the West has never ceased to express its distrust of Indian political institutions, its non-aligned foreign policy, its general elections, its HR record and handling of minorities. Given this backdrop, it was no surprise to see most western countries expressing support for the farmers’ agitation.

There can be no mistaking the generally satisfied tone among large sections of the western media accounts over the outcome of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls and the marked decline in the BJP’s strength. Clearly, India may have become a regionally important player in Asia, but it will not do for Indian leaders or their political parties to be ‘uppity’ vis-à-vis the advanced West!

The NDA must tread carefully in the present situation, facing a hostile China and a distrustful bunch of Western countries, it must put its own house in order. It has its work cut out. The challenge posed by the Khalistanis would require careful handling. It cannot be denied that Amritpal Singh’s winning margin over his INC rival of nearly 200,000 votes is among the highest in Punjab. Also, Singh is not the only separatist to win a Parliamentary election. Engineer Rashid, another separatist, contested as an independent and won. What unites Amritpal Singh and Engineer Rashid is that both have no faith in the Constitution of India. (IPA Service)

The post Centre In A Fix Over ‘Khalistani’ Lok Sabha MP Amritpal Singh first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

The article Centre In A Fix Over ‘Khalistani’ Lok Sabha MP Amritpal Singh appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Ashis Biswas

At the end of the bitterest general elections in recent times, it is only in Assam that the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the main opposition, the Congress, are broadly satisfied with the outcome. The BJP won 11 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats while the badly divided, and always under-estimated Congress, swept the remaining three seats, surprising analysts and defying conventional wisdom.

The electoral battle in Assam, where multiple regional/tribal parties and outfits contested hard to win seats, was dominated by the two biggest national parties. In the process, Assam’s direct influence in the overall context of national politics has increased, with the state’s leaders poised to play a significant role, both within India’s ruling dispensation and in the opposition.

For the moment, however, it is safe to assert that the hold on the Assam electorate of regional parties, like the AGP, the AASU and more recent outfits like the Asom Jatiya Parishad, all sworn to protect native Assamiya interests, has been overshadowed by compulsions of a greater engagement in the national political process.

This is not to suggest that state or ethnicity-based regionalism is weakening as a force in Assam. It needs stressing that the BJP is increasingly encroaching on the political space once controlled by the AGP or similar parties. The BJP’s major advantage is that the Congress, its strongest challenger, cannot afford to adopt an overly regional approach towards the ethnic/other problems of the troubled northeast.

Thus, it was no surprise to find Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma, a once Congress leader who joined the BJP, boldly and repeatedly talking about ‘upholding and securing Assamiya interests and their well-being by carrying out a controversial delimitation of Assembly and parliamentary seats. The BJP-run government’s earlier enthusiastic support for the badly mismanaged NRC fiasco, which cost the nation an estimated Rs 1200 crore, is another example of the BJP’s pandering to regional fears and demands.

Congress leaders in Assam, let alone those who were Chief Ministers among them, could neither match nor counter Sarma’s tactics. The party’s secular principles and political culture were and are entirely different from those of the BJP. The state BJP, in the name of preventing the illegal infiltration into Assam from Bangladesh, was not merely doing its perceived duty by helping the NRC population survey, in the process it also swallowed up the political space once occupied by forces like the AGP or the AASU.

Going into the 2024 polls, it was relatively easy for Chief Minister Sarma, who succeeded in ensuring a steady flow of central investments for Assam, helped by the BJP’s big infrastructure development drive, to stave off the Congress challenge, which showed considerable determination in opposing the thrust of the BJP’s palpably anti-Muslim policies. It condemned the state government’s targeted bull-dozing drives against the poorest sections of the population.

There was both national and international adverse media/political reaction to certain tactics adopted during the NRC campaign, as well as the so-called “encounters” between the state police and criminals. On many occasions, the Guwahati High Court castigated official highhandedness.

The state unit of the Congress, trying to resist the BJP juggernaut with its limited resources and steadily depleting flock of supporters, strove to highlight the grievances of different depressed communities and groups inside and outside of the state assembly. But, as usual with Congress politics, there were several mutually bickering factions, while the Delhi-based High command hardly took much interest.

As elections approached, despite being the main opposition, the state Congress faced some bullying tactics from outstation parties, especially from the Bengal-based Trinamool Congress and the Delhi-based Aam Aadmi Party. Forging an effective state-level INDI-Alliance was difficult as both the TMC, and the AAP, demanded 5 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats each! Even as the other parties made a strong pitch by announcing their own candidates and carrying out programmes without much coordination with the Congress, the Gandhi party went ahead with its colourless campaign.

The final results, however, showed that the state electorate had kept faith with the Congress in choosing a powerful opposition. The high command provided the much-needed support in the latter stages of the campaign.

The eventual results showed that both the BJP and the largely pro-establishment state media had underestimated the extent of resentment against some of the official policies and decisions. Commenting on the results, Congress leader Gaurav Gogoi, who won the Jorhat seat, noted that no one had really expected the Congress to win by over 100,000 votes in the Jorhat constituency, an area supposed to be a strong support base of the BJP.

Similarly, the massive victory notched up by Rakibul Hussain from Dhubri, over the redoubtable Badruddin Ajmal of the AIUDF, was nothing short of a game-changer. Hussain had been involved in an exchange of words with the Chief Minister over the battle for Dhubri. It was common knowledge in Assam that Ajmal was backed by the local BJP but he still suffered a huge defeat.

These results have led some Assam-based analysts to wonder whether Assam was showing signs of moving away from the pettiness of communal politics often associated with hardline BJP leaders and by outfits claiming to represent socially backward groups. Assam Congressmen feel more confident as they face the future and begin preparations to fight the Assembly polls due next year. As state Congress leaders met to celebrate their success in Assam against all odds in their Guwahati party office, they resolved to co-operate better and renew efforts to do well in the Assembly polls.

For once, even the state BJP cannot ignore the opposition challenge. It is a wake-up call even as Sarma and his colleagues continue to celebrate victory in 11 out of 14 seats. As with the BJP in Delhi, the ruling party has been warned by the electorate. (IPA Service)

The post Desperate Contests Later, Win-Win For Both BJP, Congress In Assam first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

The article Desperate Contests Later, Win-Win For Both BJP, Congress In Assam appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Ashis Biswas

In Assam, bad news continues for the opposition: little tangible progress has been made in pre-election seat sharing talks among major parties opposing the ruling Bharatiya Janata party(BJP), as they desperately struggle to build a united anti-Saffron front, in recent weeks.

Unless major opposition parties including the Congress, Raisor Dal, Asom Jatiya Parishad and Trinamool Congress (TMC) — not to mention the unpredictable AIUDF — settle their numerous differences more effectively to put together a minimally credible political alliance and launch a vigorous anti-BJP campaign, their prospects in the coming Lok Sabha polls look bleak.

No wonder, the ruling BJP exudes a confidence going into the 2024 LS polls that cannot normally be explained by the quality of its controversy-marred governance under Chief Minister Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma.

Yet, recent media reports from Assam tell their own story. Senior BJP Minister Mr Pijush Hazarika for instance, is quoted as saying that the opposition may not win a single seat in the coming Lok Sabha polls!

As for the Chief Minister whose future ambitions lie well beyond the Northeast region — it is common knowledge that he craves a more prominent position within the BJP central leadership preferably in Delhi — the present confusion within parties opposing him has further sharpened his aggressive anti-opposition rhetoric, especially against the Congress.

The mutual bickerings and war of words among opposition leaders, reported almost daily in great detail in the Assam-based media, naturally adds to the difficulties they face in a difficult fight against the entrenched saffron party. Their constant references to past mistakes and wrong decisions made by various opposition leaders, particularly by Congressmen, raises doubts about (a) their own anti-BJP commitment and (b) their own credibility on the critical post-elections question of pulling together as a team.

The encouraging news for the opposition, if it can be described as such, is that at least the seat sharing talks have not come to a halt, talks are continuing, though with little results.

The most assertive non Congress opposition party in Assam, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC, has scaled down its demand from an initial five to two LS seats out of 14 up for contest. As for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), it too is currently pressing to fight from 3 out of the five seats it had originally asked for.

However, leader of Congress opposition in the state Assembly Mr Debabrata Saikia, questioned the basis of the new demands made by both parties, even while acknowledging the AAP’s better-than-Congress performance in the recent Guwahati municipal elections. Especially referring to specific seats demanded by the parties — the TMC for instance has made a strong bid for Silchar Lok Sabha seat. As against this — Mr Saikia pointed to the situation on the ground. Neither the TMC nor the AAP had managed even to form ward committees in many areas, while LS seats naturally cover a much bigger area than Assembly seats.

In his opinion, neither party was really in a position to pressurize the BJP, mainly because they simply had no party organisation worth the name. As a major national opposition party, Congress had even in these hard times, commanded a significant presence of party supporters and loyalists all over Assam.

For his pains, Mr Saikia was attacked bitterly by both the TMC and the AAP. TMC leader Mr Ripun Bora was quoted by the media as saying that Congress must take account of ground realities all over India. Unlike the TMC, known for its strong vigorous anti BJP campaigns, the older party had neither the energy nor the will to go against the BJP in an all-out fight. It must make way for new strong regional parties that had come up in different states and defeated the BJP comprehensively.

AAP leaders pointed out that apart from winning a seat in the Guwahati municipal authority, the new party had been second in around 24 seats. This was a far better performance than what was achieved by Congress, with all its experience, past history, resources and committed support! The AAP was also running two state governments in India.

Both parties also advised Congress leaders to come off their high horse while dealing with opposition parties, and not try to dominate other parties in the name of leading an anti-BJP campaign.

However, ground realities in Assam did not necessarily show the opposition enjoying a strong position either. From within the TMC there came disturbing reports of at least nine Block Mandal committee Gen Secretaries and Secretaries in Cachar areas, as they sent in their resignation. Observers said the trend was bound to spread. The number of people/local level leaders expected to resign in different areas could well go up to 40 during the coming two weeks!

Most, according to reports, were about to join the BJP. Those resigning alleged that there had been simply no political activity on any kind during the past few months within the TMC, which was highly frustrating.

TMC leaders sought to make light of the development claiming that some of these resigning had been with the TMC for two/three years but they had originally come from the BJP!

State BJP leaders did not comment, their leaders making it apparently clear that those deserting the TMC were not in a position to make any conditions on their rejoining. And there the matter rests. (IPA Service)

The post Opposition Talks On Seat Sharing In Assam For Lok Sabha Polls Not Progressing first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

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By Ashis Biswas

In recent weeks, Nepal has taken several major steps to firm up its faltering economy during the difficult post Ukraine war period. In the process, two of its recent decisions in terms of their diplomatic impact, can be perceived as a reminder to giant neighbours India and China, that Kathmandu prefers to pursue its own independent course on economic issues — it can play the balancing game between major competing powers as well as anyone in South Asia.

For India the good news is that a bilateral long term agreement in the power generating sector has been signed with Nepal following several rounds of official talks. Over the next decade, India will purchase at least 10,000 megawatts of mainly hydropower from its Himalayan neighbour. A number of green environment-friendly hydropower generation projects have been currently under way in Nepal for some years now. Some of these mega investment projects are being executed with Indian financial/technological help and advice.

Nepalese authorities are confident that a vast, relatively stable market with an ever increasing demand for power like India, is itself a major advantage for its domestic power producers. A long term agreement between the two countries will result in tangible short as well as long term benefits, leading to fresh jobs for educated Nepali youths. It will generate new opportunities for the expansion of the country’s fledgling manufacturing sector.

The export of power to India as well as Bangladesh, which currently buys 50 megawatts daily, can eventually enable the landlocked country to earn more revenues than even the flourishing tourism sector over time, according to Nepali planners.

India stands to gain as well, as ensuring reliable clean non polluting uninterrupted supplies from Nepal, (except for natural calamities) would be an advantage. Its dependence on the use of ‘dirty fuel’ coal will diminish, which should help countries directly threatened by the effects of global warming.

However there is good, perhaps even better — news for China as well. During the last few weeks Nepal has begun to use the Chinese ports to increase its exports. This path-breaking development for some reasons has not been widely reported in the Indian mainstream media.

While a shift in the movement of Nepalese export-bound cargo should not cause India too many worries, given the volumes involved, the development does indicate that China’s ambitious Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has made a major regional breakthrough that Indian policymakers can no longer ignore.

What should cause concern in Delhi are recent comments made by Nepalese Customs and related official authorities suggesting that the country’s traditional dependence on India for carrying out its import/export trade was finally ending! There can be no mistaking the overall tone of relief and satisfaction over what Nepal and China have worked out to implement finally a long term proposal that had been under discussion for some time.

This, analysts admit, certainly counts as a major gain, a success for the Chinese BRI initiative on South Asia. Bangladesh had earlier assured China of its participation in joint infra-related connectivity projects, within the BRI programme.

India it may be recalled had drawn up its own parallel BBIN transport connectivity project in the region. It had consistently opposed the BRI on account of the use made by China of the disputed POK region in its CPEC highway project through Pakistan.

However, while India, Bangladesh and Nepal responded positively to the BBIN and operationalised hassle-free movement of people and goods cutting down on time, expenses and bureaucratic procedure, Bhutan had opted out, pleading environmental concerns as well as a lack of suitable domestic infrastructural development.

An additional factor that added to the attractions of supporting the BRI project, for most developing countries, was of course, the prospect of securing timely financial aid from China, as an alternate source to the IMF or the World Bank.

Transit-related matters with China were finalized, according to Nepali media reports, during the visit made a few years ago by former Prime Minister Mr K.P. Sharma Oli to Beijing. Mr Oli is known for his generally pro-China views and approach. Negotiations had continued for over eight years.

Nepali sources have confirmed the recent dispatch of homemade noodles (nearly 2400 cartons) to Japan, costing about $12,000 through Chinese ports. It is not exports alone, imports through Chinese ports have also begun, with Myanmar exporting turmeric recently to Nepal.

As per existing provisions of the bilateral Nepal/China agreement, Nepal can access at least six Chinese ports, some of them coastal, and 3 dry (land) ports, to access the seas/international waters. Its near total dependence on the ports of Kolkata and Vizag to a lesser extent, will be sharply reduced.

Kolkata Port Authorities it may be stated had made several arrangements to help ease and speed up the movement of Nepali imports and exports. A separate dock had been built to deal only with Nepal cargo. Indian Railways had worked out arrangements to ensure speedy northward movements, ensuring a priority for the Nepalese goods.

However Nepalese authorities often complained about the administrative delays involved in seeking clearances, finalising cost of operations etc, mainly because the final clearance had to be secured from Delhi-based Government offices and Ministries concerned.

Aware of these problems Bangladesh authorities, keen to step up business from and activities in the relatively new Mongla and Chatttogram posts, had made special offers to Nepal ( as well as Indian companies) to increase operations on their territory. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress supremo Ms. Mamata Banerjee has just publicly rejected an alliance with the state Congress for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, but in truth, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) had decided to shake up the still evolving opposition I.N.D.I.A anti-BJP coalition some days ago. There had been a few disturbing signals — the TMC’s leaders/spokesmen from Guwahati to West Bengal, had been suddenly decrying opposition prospects much too frankly and freely during the last few days.

As expected, the timing of Ms Banerjee’s announcement of its ‘go-it-alone in West Bengal’ message, even as the INDIA opposition barely launched serious seat adjustment talks — perhaps the most difficult part of any alliance formation! — is unusually significant. No wonder, there are suggestions from parties normally critical of Ms Banerjee that the TMC is once more turning out to be a willing Trojan horse for the BJP, wrecking opposition unity from within !

Regardless of desperate efforts made by the Indian National Congress leader Mr Jairam Ramesh to salvage whatever remained of his party’s credibility, the TMC’s unilateral stand was undeniably a major setback for any anti- BJP political initiative. Worse, with only two months to go for the crucial 2024 Lok sabha polls, Ms Banerjee’s angry outburst, as feared, was nothing short of sweet music for a delighted BJP camp, going by BJP spokesman Mr Amit Malviya’s ecstatic tweet.

Bottom line : even as the TMC’s disconcerting move exposed the essential weaknesses within a still divided opposition , CPI(M) and state Congress leaders now claim with renewed vigour that their main and basic charge — the TMC always sabotages any anti BJP initiative — stands fully vindicated. How far these parties succeed in convincing major sections of the electorate in East and Northeast India that if the BJP is a communal force, the TMC is its effective ally — remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, there are suggestions from senior Congressmen that some of Ms Banerjee’s accusations against India’s oldest political party are ‘not factually correct’. One example –her allegation that nobody from Congress had informed her about Mr Rahul Gandhi’s proposed ‘Yatra’ to be carried out in Bengal. Congress sources, who were in the process of drawing up a detailed response to some of Ms Banerjee’s allegations, told media persons, this was not true. Information had been sent to Kolkata in due time about the Congress programme.

Furthermore, Congress had formally invited the TMC to join its proposed march among the people to be undertaken by Mr Rahul Gandhi. Party Chairman Mr M. Kharge had also written to the TMC extending an invitation. All communication to the TMC had been sent both digitally and on hard copy, they insisted.

On many occasions again, Congress leaders had appealed to other anti BJP parties such as the CPIM), other left parties and especially the TMC to join in its anti- BJP mass campaign, contrary to Ms Banerjee’s claims.

Signs that the TMC had decided to announce its’ go-it-alone -in- the- 2024 polls’ decision even before Ms Banerjee’s formal announcement were ,as stated before, perceived in the Northeast, in a sudden escalation of anti Congress rhetoric among TMC leaders.

To take the case of Assam: the TMC significantly boycotted a meeting of Assam-based opposition parties called by Mr, Rahul Gandhi at Gohpur near Guwahati some days ago. This is a grouping of 15 parties and outfits without the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF). The TMC had joined it somewhat late.

Defending their boycott, TMC leaders said they were unhappy particularly with Mr, Gandhi and Congress as a whole for the repeated snubs the bigger party had administered to the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee.

Examples: (a) Ms Banerjee had called upon I.N.D.I.A to finalise seat adjustments first before deciding campaign strategy/programmes. Her suggestion was not accepted.

She followed this up by proposing (b) that seat adjustments be discussed and finalised by October 15, 2023. – Outcome-suggestion not accepted.

She again suggested that © seat adjustments/advanced by positively concluded by December 31 2023, to enable parties to co-ordinate their pre-poll scheduling and programmes. This proposal too was rejected.

On each occasion, it was Congress that had objected most strongly. Apparently, it was a part of the overall Congress approach to weaken and sideline the TMC as far as possible, even while drawing up a nation-wide anti BJP programme. This was the strategy of Congress to contain the TMC, the biggest/strongest force in Bengal and the largest emerging anti-BJP outfit in the NE region.

Naturally, the TMC would never accept these conditions in the name of working for opposition unity.

Assam TMC leader Mr Ripun Bora told the media as early as Jan 20, days before Ms Banerjee made her anti-Congress pitch that his party was particularly unhappy with Mr. Rahul Gandhi. If necessary, the TMC would go it alone. It was still within the opposition camp, but would adopt a wait and watch posture for now.

These details of the TMC’s catalogue of complaints were published in Assamiya print media on January 20, well before Ms Banerjee’s outburst from Bengal.

However, observers in general are inclined to treat Ms Banerjee’s protest as a mere pressure tactic, despite widespread national political speculation. They feel that there is ample time and as well as plenty of opportunities for further negotiations and dialogue, between now and the coming elections. In case the TMC was really serious and meant business, it would have walked out of the opposition alliance by now. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In Bangladesh, the recent Awami League (AL) victory in the 2024 parliamentary polls has left major world powers sharply divided and common people confused. Significantly, the none-too-unpredictable outcome has not left too many Bangladeshis noticeably jubilant, excepting ruling AL leaders.

The comfortable margin of the AL’s victory has bought ruling Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed a much needed breathing space after a prolonged, unusually acrimonious pre- election campaign.

However her relief may yet be short-lived, in the context of the formidable economic and political challenges Bangladesh is currently up against. What worries even her friendliest advisers is whether in the medium term, world economic trends will remain as acutely unfavourable for most developing countries as at present.

This is particularly important for Bangladesh, a country which observers now concede, has re-elected to power the AL, because of its aggressive promotion of economic development in recent years. The undeniable economic progress made during the AL tenure leading to booming exports, rising remittances and a sustained growth in the domestic economy through spectacular infra development projects providing mass employment, is admitted– however grudgingly — by even her powerful political opponents in the US and EU .

The 2024 poll results therefore provide confirmation of conventional political wisdom among policymakers that most voters respond to visible economic progress, while sidelining other controversial issues. This is exactly what the beleaguered Prime Minister and her party had been desperately hoping, would happen. For once, the ugly mix of corruption, nepotism and authoritarianism in Bangladesh’s domestic politics, mattered less than economic growth. .

The Western bloc of countries, while generally deprecating the poll outcome, have warned Dhaka that they would continue to monitor whether the AL addresses these problems transparently, going forward. To the US, EU and some United Nation officials, the size of the AL’s one-sided victory did not mean a thing.

Since the poll stats have been widely reported in various media, there is little point in repeating them. Suffice it to say that the eventual figures released by the Bangladesh Election Commission did not satisfy the critical norms set by the West.

Statements from top Western politicians in fact put Bangladesh on notice that the new government would remain very much under their critical scanner. In view of reports of intimidation, widespread arrests of opposition workers, the major boycott of polls by the biggest challenging party, the outcome of 2024 Bangladesh Parliamentary elections remained open to questioning. The overall polling percentage exceeding just 40%, was also suspect.

Significantly however, while the Western bloc indicated its disapproval of Bangladeshi poll results, the country could not be dismissively sidelined. Three major countries, including immediate neighbours China and India as well as Russia, promptly congratulated the reigning PM on winning yet another term and expressing their support for the future as well.

Presumably following this ringing endorsement of Bangladesh from the non-western bloc, some more countries including such international heavyweights as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Japan and Singapore, also sent congratulatory messages.

The relief in Dhaka, according to most observers, was palpable. As senior AL leaders had repeatedly stressed in private conversations, securing the support of China and India in their immediate neighbourhood was top priority. China had helped Bangladesh massively in recent years, with an assured financial package of $22 billion over the next five or so years. Present Indian assistance to Bangladesh exceeds f $5 billion .The comparative lack of similar investments from the West (excepting Japan), makes ensuring the present levels of support from Beijing and Delhi an all important task for Dhaka

The Western reaction could not dismiss the 2024 election results as manipulated or rigged, as it done while referring to earlier elections — not yet, that is. This has considerably added to the disappointment of the opposition in Bangladesh. Some senior Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leaders, enjoy considerable support/sympathy from Western governments as well as various HR groups and institutions in recent years. They now feel let down. Many were hoping for an automatic rejection of the poll results in the West in view of the continuing non-participation of the BNP in the polls, for the second time running. It seems they had overplayed their hands and miscalculated.

But this is not to suggest that the AL is looking forward to a smooth sailing from here on — far from it. The West still fully retains its powers to impose economic sanctions on countries it considers unfriendly, including developing countries. Bangladesh has already had a mild taste of US/imposed sanctions. Quite apart from imposing visa restrictions for selected political individuals/officials, there could be more damaging sanctions in store– a sanction on the present level of imports of Bangladesh-made garments in the West for instance, could immediately sabotage the hefty export earnings that Dhaka enjoys within the EU and in the US — these constitute the bulk of $40 billion or so earned during a good year!

Is there an immediate threat of this happening? No, but Bangladeshi analysts have warned of such a possibility sometime in the future, depending on the future course of the patently uneasy relations between Bangladesh and the Western bloc.

As it is, there is the strong possibility of Bangladesh earning less from its exports from 2027-28 onwards, as the traditional advantage it enjoyed as an exporting LDC would no longer be available. Bangladesh policymakers are hard at work to arrange for the production of high quality garments too to compete with China on level terms.

Dhaka would also have to repay heavy amounts on official loans it had taken from various international agencies and institutions, which would certainly strain its forex reserves. As it is, its reserves are down to around $15/16 billion at present, on account of the Ukraine war and the attendant economic impact. Earlier, it had reserves to the tune of $40 billion or so.

The point: the ruling AL despite its impressive election victory, can hardly afford to antagonise the West in the medium term and must undertake convincing efforts to improve its domestic political functioning, its HR record and cut down on mounting corruption and political partisanship.

The contrasting reactions from the West and the non-aligned bloc headed by the BRICS countries over the Bangladesh poll results further indicate that the new emerging alignment among major nations over recent world developments such as the war in Ukraine , continues .The West , regardless of the relative strength of the US dollar as the World’s leading currency and economic domination, cannot hope to dictate as before to many African as well as Asian countries to fall in line with its objectives or political agenda.

The effective fightback against US /EU sanctions by Russia and the international support it continues to enjoy, cannot fail to encourage countries like Bangladesh. Many developing countries, thanks to the level of economic progress achieved by the BRICS countries, are well aware that they would not face the crippling pains of sanctions and boycotts a la Cuba in the past.

Bangladesh is no exception. If the West carries its threats too far, it may end up driving Bangladesh, an important South Asian country of 170 million people with a fairly strong economy, into the eager embrace of China. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Despite four rounds of prolonged talks, unity eludes, even on basic issues, potential partners in the much-hyped opposition alliance – famously christened INDIA – in east and northeast India. Major opposition parties of Assam   and Bihar have rejected two proposals, one on seat-sharing and the other on projecting a “PM face” for the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

In Assam, the TMC had initially proposed to contest at least 5 out of the 14 Lok Sabha seats, as a major constituent of the INDI alliance. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) had followed suit, also asking for 5 seats. Neither party has a strong base in Assam or the Northeast, although some TMC leaders are , as in most states, former Congressmen.

As for the AAP, it made an   initial foray into the region only after its spectacular win in the Punjab Assembly polls.  The party did marginally better than the TMC in the recent Guwahati municipal polls, winning one seat, while the TMC did not win any.

On the other hand, there is a certain following among the voters in the three Barak valley districts for the TMC of Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee. As the biggest opposition party in Assam, the Congress did not react very strongly to such demands, considered natural in the pre-election scenario.

It was no different with other parties with a  much stronger local base and roots, such as the Asam Gana Parishad(AGP), the CPI(M), various Bodo and other tribal parties, the Raisor Dal  and other major groups.

However, some parties want to contest from specific seats: the CPI(M) wants to contest from Barpeta. Following its example, the TMC wants to contest the Karimganj parliamentary seat in the Barak valley. Apparently, Susmita Dev, former Youth Congress leader, who later joined the TMC and enjoys a certain local support within the valley, would be the TMC’s candidate.

Daughter of veteran Congress leader and Union Minister, the late Santosh Mohan Dev, Ms. Dev has in a manner of speaking begun her campaign already. She has pointed out the weaknesses and other problems within the state Congress in recent interviews, strongly backing her party’s claim for the Karimganj seat.

Her remarks as expected did not go down well with the state Congress leadership. At a recent meeting of the state party, attended by central party observers apart from  state president Bhupen Bora, it was unanimously agreed that it was for the Congress as  the BJP’s strongest challenger to decide and settle seat adjustment issues, in discussions to be held with other INDIA constituents.

Not only top Congress leaders, Congressmen from the Barak valley districts opposed Dev’s unexpected demand for Karimganj without prior consultations at any level. Senior leaders from Hailakandi and Karimganj pointed out how Congress suffered because of a seat-sharing with the All India United democratic Front (AIUDF).

There should be no repeat in the 2024 LS polls, state Congress leaders said— the party could even suffer a split at the grassroots level!

As for the joint TMC/AAP campaign to project Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge as the united opposition’s candidate for Prime Minister, Janata Dal (U) strongly opposed the move. Press reports from Patna suggested Nitish Kumar and Lalu Yadav think it is a calculated move to cut them to size.

It came as no surprise to see JD(U) leaders of  Bihar lose their cool. For them Nitish Kumar was the “PM Face” of INDIA, not Kharge.

Nitish-ji alone has the experience, the administrative acumen and the cleanest image among opposition leaders to fit the bill — others did not even come close! Nitish Kumar is not weighing in himself, but he has plenty of backers. Nitish Kumar as the  new PM’ would certainly gather momentum  in the days to come.

Interestingly, the dissident JD(U) leader Sunilkumar Pintu struck a discordant note, attacking the INDI alliance openly. The fourth meeting in Delhi had been, he said, a ‘super flop’ show! The so-called leaders could not agree on the simplest of things, even as they sought to put up a strong campaign! For his pains, Pintu was attacked in the media by his colleagues, who called for his immediate resignation — the man had earlier committed the cardinal sin of praising Prime Minister Narendra Modi and other BJP leaders for putting up a great show in the recent Assembly elections! (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In an ironic reversal of their assigned roles, regional Congress leaders are currently handling a scathing political attack on their party by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) with greater confidence than their supposedly exalted High command Delhi-based leadership, post recent Assembly elections.

Its recent drubbing in the five state Assembly elections, as expected, has further exacerbated the formidable challenges that lie ahead of India’s largest opposition party, with only a few months left for General elections 2024. The post election situation is in some ways worse than what has gone before.

While the BJP’s gloating over the results is understandable, the public rebuff from the so-called Congress ‘allies’ in their refusal to attend the December 6 meeting called by party President Mr Mallikarjun Kharge , came as another cruel reminder of their present decline.

In the Northeast and East, it has fallen upon state Congress leaders to rally round the dwindling number of desolate party followers/supporters. To their credit, it needs stating that they are doing their best.

Example one , from Assam : Mr Sanjeeb Roy, a Silchar-based Congress leader in Assam, has pointed out that even in these tough times, the party has won more aggregate votes than the BJP in the four states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Telangana. The final figures show a total of 4,90,69,462 votes for the Congress as against 4,81,29,325 won by the BJP.

According to a Barak-valley based daily, Mr Roy claimed that such mass support for India’s grand old party even in its worst times , indicated that the recent ’ Bharat Jodo Yatra’ programme carried out by Mr Rahul Gandhi had made a definite impact nationally. It was another matter that somehow such a massive electoral support did not quite materialize in the number of Assembly seats won.

Mr Roy’s commendable insight went generally under-reported in the Assam mass media. He reportedly called upon Congressmen, supporters and leaders not to lose heart over the recent results and prepare with greater energy than before to launch a fresh battle against the BJP in the coming Lok Sabha polls — present indications were not necessarily all negative!

Contrast this with the reaction of more weighty Guwahati-based Congress leaders. State party present Mr Bhupen Bora had predicted a rout for the BJP in all five states including Mizoram. The local press reported in detail his claim that on the day of counting, supplies of ‘abir’ (coloured powder used in celebrations) would run out as common people would cheer a massive Congress win !

A few hours later Mr Bora was reduced to admitting defeat, alleging that his party had been drubbed in an unprincipled battle by the BJP, in the manner of the Kouravas unfairly killing Abhimanyu in the Mahabharata epic !

Needless to add, his ‘clarification’ led to much local merriment generally, while not necessarily enhancing the party’s prestige! According to local reports, senior BJP leader and state Minister Mr Pijush Hazarika protested, calling on Mr Bora not to insult the electorate, urged him to resign.

In neighbouring West Bengal, veteran Congress leader and state party President Mr Adhir Choudhury put up a plucky defence for its electoral meltdown in the five states. Going on an offensive mode, he took on the so-called allies of the Congress in the new I.N.D.I Alliance. Singling out the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, he alleged that it had not really joined the anti-BJP election campaign.

‘Not for once’. Said Mr Choudhury, as quoted by Bengal media newsmen, ‘had any TMC leader, from Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee downwards, issued any public call for voters to defeat the BJP in the five states. No TMC leader assisted the opposition campaign which was carried out by the Congress alone, in any way in the five states! Such a stand-off attitude only fed current speculation suggesting the TMC and the BJP, for al their public protestations to the contrary, actually helped each other politically’, he said.

As for the party’s high command, there was no substantive explanation yet for its defeat. Senior leaders were meeting among themselves informally in Delhi and in the neighbouring states, waiting for the next move to be signalled by top leaders.

Choudhury too did not explain why the Congress lost. His targeting the TMC was deliberate. Only Hours earlier, TMC general Secretary Abhishek Banerjee MP had advised Congress leaders to shed their egoism and sort out inner party problems, learning from their recent defeat. The party must rethink its relationship with its I.N.D.I.A partners and work out an affective political campaign. There was not much time to lose.

Congress sources said these words had not brought much pleasure to senior Congress leaders in the state. On their side TMC sources have repeatedly stressed that a pre-election seat adjustment with its allies going into these five states — as suggested by Ms Mamata Banerjee but not carried out — would have helped the Congress avoid its debacle. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In dramatic contrast to the frenzied anti-India celebrations in Bangladesh following India’s loss to Australia in the one-day cricket final at Ahmedabad on November 19,, people in Pakistan have reacted far more soberly: in the lively Pakistani social media , there have been some expressions of sympathy for India’s hard loss, unlike the unconcealed glee among Bangladeshi netizens, mocking Delhi .

For observers disposed to regard Bangladesh politically as far friendlier to India than Pakistan, such different mass reactions to an international sporting event in the sub- continent come as a puzzle.

It was India that had helped Bangladesh materially and officially gain its independence from a genocidal ruling regime in Pakistan during 1970-71, risking its relationship with the West. Among all its immediate neighbours, the bulk of Indian investments and official assistance on various heads has gone to Bangladesh, helping its post 1971 economic growth. Therefore why this unpopularity?

Analysts of Bangladeshi politics have occasionally warned GOI and different parties ruling in Delhi, never to assume that Islamist fundamentalists and pro-Pakistan elements /supporters have been marginalized during the tenure of the Awami League (AL). Nothing can be further from the truth, they say. Going by the tone and tenor of some of the recent messages trolling India , its political leaders and cultural values in the Bangladeshi social media, it is hard to counter such assertions as of now.

For instance in Dhaka University campus on the night of November 19 , ecstatic apparently middle class youths were shown on TV screens, saying India’s defeat had come “as a fresh Id celebration “ ! Among other views expressed, the most common was,’ More than Australia’s win, it was India’s loss that had brought such joy!’

In cricket, India had adopted every trick on the book to defeat Bangladesh, some people alleged. These included ball tampering, preparing rank turning pitches to suit spin bowlers and even pressuring umpires to rule in favour of India. It was great to see how Australia showed India its proper place. The fact that India’s’ humiliation ‘had occurred before the eyes of Prime Minister Narendra Modi was added cause for celebration!

For the record, Bangladesh took the eighth position among nine contesting countries, winning only one of its matches! It had been accepted as a full member of the ICC, the international body regulating the sport worldwide, only in 1996, on the personal initiative taken by then ICC President the late Jagmohan Dalmia.

The anti-India antagonism has attracted the attention of a section of Bangladeshi media as well. A major English daily has reprinted an earlier article, explaining why Bangladeshis were upset with their bigger neighbour. The familiar list of their grievances included, the lack of accord on the Teesta river water sharing, alleged ‘killings’ on Bangladesh-India border by Indian troops, the alleged anti-Muslim bias in India CAA citizenship law, and generally aggressive Hindu policies of the BJP Government.

Writer Tasleema Nasrin who cannot return to Bangladesh, her motherland, owing to death threats from Islamic fundamentalists, expressed her surprise over Bangladeshi elation over an Indian sporting setback. Bangladesh was dependant on India to main its healthcare system, participated in India’s entertainment industry, not to mention its securing essential supplies of beef, onions and clothing from its bigger neighbour.

As stated before, Pakistanis, not exactly sorry about India’s defeat, were far more circumspect in expressing their views. Typical social media jibes ranged from ‘Kya hua, padosiyo?’ to ‘Trophy door hi rahegaya ….’ There was some gloating over Indian prime Minister’s presence in the ground as India’s meltdown occurred.

But there was some appreciation as well for India’s overall showing and the efforts put up by the team as a whole. Pakistan took the fifth position among top playing nations in the tournament. There were mild references to the failure of Indian greats like Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma to rise to big occasions, at times.

Refreshingly for pro India fans, Pak netizens made no references to pending political issues with India, nor did they call for observing a special Id-like celebration as proposed by some in Bangladesh.

Some Kolkata-based analysts felt that perhaps the coming national elections in Bangladesh had been an indirect factor contributing to anti-India feelings in general. It was common knowledge that opposition parties there especially the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), has always had a soft corner for Pakistan It also had an alliance with Islamic extremists earlier. Anything that upset the apple cart of the ruling AL, perceived to be pro-India in its political orientation, along with any setback for India, the AL’s major backer, was a good news for them

There is little doubt that for now, the initiative has shifted to anti-Indian elements in Bangladesh. However, there may be a price to pay for Bangladeshis. The reaction in neighbouring West Bengal has been equally vicious, to judge by recent Kolkata-based electronic media coverage.

Further there are reports that in the coming cash rich IPL cricket tournament, where cricketers earn major incomes, three Bangladeshi players registered with different teams — Shakib Al Hasan, Litton Das and Mustafizur Rahman, will not be considered for playing in the next season. At present, only Pakistani players remained banned from playing in the IPL. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

As in neighbouring West Bengal, efforts to ensure a one-on-one contest by the INDIA constituents against the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls are not going well in Assam , the biggest state in the Northeast with 14 seats.

At the national level, parties like the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Aam Aadmi party (AAP) had been pressing for an immediate agreement over the major issue of seat adjustments. As leader of the biggest opposition party and the obvious political centre of the new I.N.D.I.A alliance, Congress l is not responding.

Their broad argument was : (a) with so many parties in the broad opposition alliance and the obvious policy differences between a national party like Congress and various regional parties , any seat adjustment exercise was bound to be protracted — perhaps even ill-tempered. It was by far the stickiest part of the larger ambitious objective to bring the entire anti-BJP opposition together under one umbrella.

Further, most regional parties, even while placing initial demands for seats informally, had made it clear that all over India, they expected Congress as the biggest party to accommodate their interests, setting a noble example of political leadership! Simultaneously, they described the Congress as a party well in decline and in dire need of help from the regional parties, if defeating the BJP nationally was first priority.

As the biggest opposition party with the highest percentage of votes won nationally, still around 20% in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Congress leaders insisted that no regional party even came close to commanding either its vote share or the number of seats bagged. Mr. Rahul Gandhi’s impressive Bharat Jodo Yatra had rallied considerable popular support, they claimed. No wonder they prevailed upon smaller I.N.D.I.A parties to wait for seat adjustment talks until the outcome of the ongoing Assembly elections to five states was known. The non-Congress INDIA partners had to wait reluctantly for December 3 results.

As for Assam, both the TMC and the AAP have informally staked a claim for fighting at least 5 seats each! This , without any discussion with or reference to similar demands to be made for seats from established parties like the CPI(M), the CPI, Raisor Dal, Asom Jatiya Parishad and other local parties in the fray.

This despite the fact that both the TMC and the AAP are in terms of political record, rank newcomers to the state as well as the NE region! Since the number of seats up for grabs was only 14, such a trend of informal talks provides a clear indication of how difficult the seat adjustment talks could prove to be in Assam.

As for West Bengal, the situation was worse. With 42 seats in contention, major I.N.D.I.A allies like the CPI(M)-led Left or Congress are not even willing to talk at all to the ruling TMC. As the CPI(M) and Congress state leaders say openly, they would not necessarily agree with their central leadership when it came to actually sharing seats with the TMC given the latter’s blatant excesses, corruption and misuse of official machinery to eliminate all opposition in Bengal !

Significantly, neither central CPI(M) leaders nor the Congress high command have given any indication that they will firmly instruct state party leaders to soften their anti-TMC stand. However, there are indications that senior Delhi-based Congress leaders are trying very hard to work out some adjustment with the TMC, if the latter allows the grand old party to contest at least 5/6 seats.

In this delicate situation, Assam Congress leaders Mr Bhupen Bora and Mr Debabrata Saikia have announced that their party high command had set up a five member committee to examine and finalise seat adjustment proposals for Assam. This Committee or the party President, senior Congress leader Mr Mallikarjun Kharge MP, would announce the party’s final position on seat adjustment and other issues, after talks with other parties.

According to latest media reports from Assam, Mr Bora, President of Assam Congress and Mr Saikia, leader of the opposition in the state Assembly, made it clear that the final decision announced by Congress leaders on seat adjustments would be binding within the I.N.D.I.A group.

Not unexpectedly, this was contested strongly and immediately by both the AAP and the TMC. The AAP has been inclined to assert what it sees as the pole position within the new alliance especially after winning in Punjab, the second state under its belt after Delhi Union territory. After Congress, it sees itself as the first among equals in the anti-BJP grouping. Its leaders have begun sniping at the TMC too in some cases, referring to the latter’s failure to make a mark either in Tripura, Goa or in Assam.

State-based TMC and AAP leaders have told the Assam-based media that there was no reason why or how a decision about seat sharing in the state announced by the central Congress leadership could be considered ‘binding’ on its non Congress allies in the battle against the BJP !

Clearly, opposition leaders in East and Northeast India have their work cut out to achieve a significant anti-BJ P political consolidation, given their different political compulsions. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

For Bangladesh, an inexorable decline of its economy during the last couple of years has added to the present tensions it faces in its uneasy relationship with the US. This has rendered the position of the ruling Awami League (AL) politically more vulnerable as it continues its pre-election campaign for the 2024 Parliamentary elections.

From the tone of the present rhetoric of spirited debates on the Bangladeshi electronic media and articles written by specialists/experts, it is generally accepted that the US-led bloc of western countries are unhesitatingly backing the opposition anti-AL campaign. Repeated visits by Western diplomats/leaders to Bangladesh in recent months, usually urging upon the AL government to adopt more ’transparent ‘ measures to ensure a free and fair elections , are only one indication of their barely concealed distrust about the AL-run administration.

Significantly, the thrust of the so-called ‘liberal’ Western criticism of recent administrative decisions taken in Bangladesh even focuses on issues not overtly political : Examples: the official handling of the demands raised by garments industries workers agitating for higher pay or the GoB’s continuing running battle against the economic projects and policies of Dr Mohammad Yunus, Nobel laureate economist.

Not surprisingly, ruling AL leaders/Ministers have reacted sharply, seeing in such moves nothing short of a direct interference in the domestic politics/governance in Bangladesh ! GoB has felt it necessary to warn serving diplomats that sponsoring/participating in such activities do not necessarily form part of time-honoured diplomatic conventions.

No wonder some observers feel that at present, when a handful of Bangladeshi officials have already been placed under US-imposed sanctions, it seems as though nothing that the ruling AL does will be seen in a positive light by mainstream Western liberal press. The general consensus in the West is that regardless of official pronouncements and assurances given in Dhaka about the coming elections, the opposition narrative must be accepted in its entirety.

The broad political message sent out by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-led opposition is that the AL has always rigged elections, by resorting to widespread intimidation /violence in its campaign to ensure its well publicised poll ‘victories’. Ironically exactly similar allegations were voiced against the BNP during its own earlier election victories.

In broad terms, the ‘corrupt’ AL stands accused of rigging elections and marginalising its opponents by violence: as for the BNP , it is attacked for its pro-Pakistan aggressive Islamist approach , together with a high dose of corruption and opportunism.

The diplomatic establishment in Dhaka stands sharply divided in this situation : almost predictably, while the US and EU countries have turned critical of the AL, Bangladesh’s major regional/nearer neighbours like China, Russia and India have been far more supportive of the ruling AL government. Russia and China have strongly denounced open interference and pressure tactics adopted by the US and its allies in the internal affairs of Bangladesh.

In sharp contrast, apart from their involvement in Bangladesh’s domestic political developments, Russia, China and India have materially helped the country to grow into a strong economy over the years. These countries unlike the West have helped Bangladesh, financially and technologically through short and long term projects — but also unconditionally!

Nevertheless, with Bangladeshi forex reserves currently reduced to around $19 billion only — $16.5 billion by International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) estimates — the ruling AL finds its strongest claim to success as a ruling party, gradually collapsing in the critical pre-poll months. The recent economic progress seen in Bangladesh during the AL’s tenure, with Bangladesh surpassing India in terms of GDP per capita income growth, was naturally highlighted by its leaders as a high point of achievement.

Now suddenly there are disturbing questions regarding such claims. It is common knowledge that reasons for the sudden signs of an economic decline in Bangladesh, in the post Covid pandemic and Ukraine war era, are well beyond Bangladesh’s control. The national currency Taka has declined vis-à-vis the strong US dollar (officially 1 dollar equals 110.5 Taka but unofficially the going rate is well over 120, which encourages illegal Hundi transactions in the Remittance earnings sector, impacting official revenue collection).

Dhaka-based policymakers are also worried about present export trends, with a sharp decline is garments exports to the US in recent months: For all its efforts to expand its base of exports internationally, over 90% of Bangladeshi export earnings still come from the garments sector. And around 95% of such earnings come from the US and EU countries! Whenever restrictions have been imposed in the US over the use of child labour of the exploitation of women in Bangladesh garment-producing units, the impact has been felt severely in the country’s economy as a whole.

Clearly, while no one comments publicly on the many underlying political/economic compulsions in the situation prevailing in Bangladesh prior to the general elections, policy planners in and out of power have to tread carefully in the exercise of diplomacy vis-a-vis the West. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In Assam, Chief Minister Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma, responding to fresh charges of corruption from the opposition, has launched a sharp counter attack specially targeting the Congress party in the pre-poll campaign for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Assam unlike in other states, appears to be slightly better placed than its rivals, somewhat helped by a continuing lack of cohesion within a divided opposition.

The BJP has kicked off with a high-pitch campaign seeking a polarisation among voters along communal lines, its leaders tearing into Congressmen for what is described as their old ‘policy of weak-kneed appeasement vis-à-vis the Muslims’. The recent Congress Working Committee(CWC) statement calling for an end to the conflict at Gaza between battling Israeli forces and the armed Muslim Hamas group, has provided the BJP yet another stick to thrash the opposition with .

While Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi has emphatically outlined India’s support for Israel following the attack on its territory by Hamas, making no concessions to pro-Palestine sentiments, the CWC’s appeal mentioned the long standing grievances of the beleaguered 2.3 million strong largely Muslim population on Gaza strip. They have been living under a harsh Israeli occupation army for years on end.

In the process, Mr Modi in effect reversed the traditional non aligned thrust of India’s foreign policy towards the enduring Arab-Israeli conflict, without any consultation at any level. Several days later on October 12, India’s MEA spokesman, obviously thinking of a possible negative impact on the large bloc of Muslim nations, redressed the balance by reaffirming GOI”s old support for the Palestinian struggle.

This was a rare instance of the BJP’s temporary retreat from the first utterly one-sided pro-Israeli statement from Prime Minister Modi, its fast evasive footwork undoubtedly influenced by the sober Congress stand. Congress reaction has followed an expected pattern with the CWC reiterating India’s earlier commitment of sympathy and support for Palestinians

Not that such subtle tactical shifts make much difference in Assam during the pre-poll campaign phase. Led by Mr Sarma, the state BJP consistently outdoes even its own Central leadership, in attacking the opposition.

One example: while the BJP condemned Congress once again for surrendering to Muslim vote-bank considerations over the West Asian conflict — with leaders like Mr Rajyavardhan Rathore leading a strong charge — it was left to the BJP in Assam to point out that the Congress statement was no different from the sentiments expressed by Pakistani leaders

The ploy proved effective in that even Sarma’s critics were forced to admit that by unexpectedly raising the level of the bitter debate in the pre-election phase, the state BJP drove the opposition into a corner. Congress leader Mr Gaurav Gogoi made an effective reply, pointing out how former BJP Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee had continued with the non aligned foreign policy formulated by Congress. He had put on record India’s continued support for the struggle of Palestinians for their own internationally recognised territory.

But hardline BJP leaders in Assam or elsewhere were not impressed by Mr Gogoi’s factually correct counter. ‘ Everyone knows that the present day BJP, while offering lip service to leaders like the late Vajpayee or the still living Mr L.K. Advani, has unceremoniously abandoned their earlier style of functioning, with its scrupulous adherence to the pluralistic norms of behaviour in and out of parliament or in official policy-making’ a senior party leader in West Bengal said. Mr. Gogoi was hardly naïve about this, he added.

As for the much discussed opposition consolidation to be achieved under the aegis of the new I.N.D.I.Alliance, not much progress has been reported in Assam. The state-based TMC suggested that seat adjustments talks with Congress and the non BJP parties should begin, but there has been no movement on te part of INDIA constituents though they know that the BJP is Battle ready.

Unfortunately, the state Congress remains divided into bitterly wrangling factions, with senior leaders like Mr Bhupen Bora embroiled in inner party squabbles. The minority-based All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) led by Mr Badruddin Ajmal MP, had attempted to open talks over seat adjustments with Congress, but the latter has shown no interest so far.

Despite his best efforts to emerge as the tallest Muslim leader in the NE region, Mr Ajmal has over time lost some influence and following in recent years, according to his critics. The decline in the AIUDF’s fortunes have been amply reflected in the party’s defeats in recent elections.

Smaller parties like Raisor Dal and Asam Jatiya Parishad oppose the BJP but are no part of a broad larger alliance as yet. Interestingly, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), which set its footprint in Assam some time ago by winning a ward in the Guwahati Municipal polls, has managed to wean away Mr, Kamal Medhi, formerly a leader of the Raisor Dal.

With top AAP leaders including Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal actively involving themselves in the Assam campaign, local party leaders are confident that its crusade against high level corruption and anti people policies of the BJP will appeal to new, young voters and job aspirants in the region as a whole.

A section of Congress leaders favoured the idea of welcoming senior leaders and workers of other opposition parties to join their ranks at a public ceremony only days ago. Some leaders had hoped to rope in a clutch of Asam Gana Parishad leaders. This would have been a major setback for the BJP, of which the AGP is a strong ally.

Unfortunately, except for second rank, local area leaders from a few other parties, no one of significant weight or repute joined Congress, to the ill-concealed disillusionment of Congressmen.

However, as the pre-poll campaign continues, opposition leaders remain hopeful that by the time the polls arrive, a broad anti-BJP political platform with its own specific political programmes and projects for common people will be in place. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

As both India and Bangladesh prepare to hold general elections early next year, concerned authorities are finding it extremely hard to maintain effective foodgrains supply chains and contain inflation. In addition, Nepal has been urging India to sell significant quantities of rice, wheat and paddy to meet rising demands in the coming festive season, expecting Delhi to relax its present ban on foodgrain exports, as a special measure.

The Nepalese administration, which recently sold a substantial quantity of tomatoes to its larger Southern neighbour to help stabilise or lower crop prices, recently ranging between Rs 140/200 in most Indian States, id hopeful that India would reciprocate its gesture.

Rising costs of food items as well as fuel, contributing to existing inflationary trends, still remain major worries among India’s regional neighbours. The ruinous effects of global warming, accompanied by excessive heating and erratic as well as declining rains, have impacted crop productions in most places. Food supply chains worldwide had already been disturbed by the Ukraine war, which shows no signs of ending soon. Without major grains and related imports from India, Nepal and Bangladesh face the dire possibility of already high prices rising further, fuelling a massive inflation.

Bangladesh has been in urgent talks with Russia and Myanmar, to ensure a guaranteed supply of rice and wheat for the short and medium term. Reports from Dhaka suggest that the country’s existing stock position is healthy. But by early 2024, when elections will be held, present reserves would run out.

Both Russia and Myanmar have mentioned selling prices that Bangladesh finds too high. Myanmar again is not certain it can meet Dhaka’s grains demands in full. Given the difficult economic situation prevailing worldwide, it is clear that more negotiations will be needed and it would be wise for policymakers to factor in some hardline bargaining ahead, with selling countries enjoying an edge.

No wonder Bangladesh along with Nepal, is banking on India to come to its aid big time, in a very difficult situation. Good neighbourly relations among these countries is a definite advantage. Along with Sri Lanka and China, Bangladesh and Nepal have been regular importers of rice produced in India, during more normal times.

For instance, Nepal imported 1.4 million tonnes of Indian rice in 2021, costing $473-plus million. Bangladesh purchased 37% of its aggregate rice imports from India in 2022, spending over $2.81 million.

By end 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, however, India will have its own special compulsions to contend with. Lok Sabha elections will be due sometime close to mid 2024, according to indications. Food prices will be a major issue. Much will depend on the domestic production of rice, wheat, paddy and varieties of ‘dal’ (lentil). Present pre-harvest indications are hardly encouraging.

Beginning with the southern States, the monsoon rainfall is expected to decline in parts of East as well as central India, because of the El Nino factor. Most economists/planners therefore fear a shortfall in overall food/veg production. The reduction in quantity is likely to result in higher prices, which can be met only partially by making use of existing reserves.

The issue could well be politically sensitive as well as decisive during the long build-up period prior to the 2024 polls. India’s own economy, with present levels of unemployment, declining exports and industrial production, is not going great guns. No wonder GOI has banned its normal export of rice and sugar etc for now.

The question arises, how efficiently can GOI work out a delicate balance between maintaining effective domestic governance and meeting the desperate pleas for help from its economically distressed neighbours? Given India’s traditional role of being an acknowledged leader in the South Asian region, helping neighbours during a worldwide economic crisis is not a task to be taken lightly.

Meanwhile, judging by media reports from Kathmandu and Dhaka, policymakers do not conceal that they feel the heat, as well as the tension mounting among common people. Bangladesh Commerce Minister Mr Tipu Munshi visited India recently with a list of urgent requirements for items Dhaka wanted badly. Earlier Prime Ministers of both countries had agreed to work out a bilateral agreement that would guarantee a definite quantum of supply from India.

The compulsion in Bangladesh can be readily appreciated, given that the ruling Awami League (AL) is already engaged in a pre-poll campaign against its bitterest opponent the BNP (Bangladesh Nationalist Party). Achieving some kind of food security for Bangladesh before the polls is thus priority number one for the ruling AL, with the eyes of a hostile West already following developments very closely!

As things stand, Nepal according to media reports has pressed India to supply at least 100,000 tonnes of rice, a million tonnes of paddy and 50,000 tonnes of sugar. As for Bangladesh, it would like to import over 15,00,000 tonnes of rice, 10,00,000 tonnes of sugar and 26,00,000 tonnes of wheat . It would also require substantial amounts of garlic, ginger, onions and dal, in the near future.

Ministers and GOI officials have indicated that exporting foodgrains etc in such quantities might not be possible in the present situation, given India’s own compulsions. Both countries have been told to reduce the magnitude of their preliminary orders to the extent possible. However, India reiterated its commitment to stand by its neighbours in the hour of their need, as always.

Bangladesh has already submitted a revised list of requirements from India following the recent talks. But along with Nepal it still counts on India to come to its help in a major way. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

KOLKATA: In Northeast India, the debate over officially proposed palm oil cultivation on a major scale has warmed up, with some opposition parties in Assam protesting the state’s decision to go ahead with the scheme.

Already in Manipur, tribal organisations as well as the strong pro-environment protection lobby have warned the Central and state Government authorities not to launch such cultivation projects in a state where cultivable land is scarce. In sections of NE-based media, there have been accounts of how the ruling Central and state Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) leaders allowed major industries — including some known for their close ties with the top BJP leaders — to begin commercial cultivation.

The Centre’s logic is simple. The country has to import over 13 million tonnes of palm oil annually, whereas only about 10 million tonnes are being produced domestically. Palm oil is needed not only for food preparations, but also as a basic input for the large fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector in the country. Also, the demand for such oil is likely to double in about five years’ time.

Keeping such emerging trends in view GOI decided to increase domestic production on a major scale as early as possible. Ensuring food security as well as economy growth was the objective.

A critical situation arose during the worldwide economic slowdown caused by the covid 19 pandemic. Major palm oil producers Malaysia and Indonesia, which account for around 41% of world production, reported large production shortfalls owing to labour shortage and other reasons. India had to import palm oil from Latin American countries as a result, but declining trends have been reported from there as well.

Because of the shortfall in imports domestic price of palm oil has shot up by around 30 per cent .Given this situation, GOI has no choice but to go in for larger domestic production of the item. GOI finalised an ambitious Rs 11040 crore scheme with special emphasis in Northeast and the Andaman Islands for the immediate cultivation of palm oil over 600,000 hectares in the next few years. Six districts were selected in Assam but other states including Tripura too were selected for the project.

The Supreme Court however, disallowed the move to launch such a project in the Andaman islands, fearing an impact on the local eco system. The decision was welcomed by environmentalists and mass organisations in the NE region worried by the scope of the official plans.

Opposition parties in Assam, including the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the Asam Jatiya Parishad (AJP) and the Trinamool Congress (TMC) have joined forces to oppose GOI”s move. Opposition leaders have pointed out that each palm tree requires at least 300 litres of water in the short term for its survival. A consistent water supply on such a scale is simply not possible at the present times, when global warming has emerged as a major existential challenge for the world.

Rivers, creeks and lakes are running dry all over the world. Entire glacier ranges and icebergs are melting rapidly. Rainfall has been decreasing steadily and become very erratic, resulting in large floods and water wastage.

This has naturally forced most countries to go in for greater commercial use of groundwater, leading to the fast depletion of water tables. In fact the worldwide drop in ground water levels, thanks to wasteful and careless water usage, has led to subtle changes in the very natural motions of planet earth, an alarming sign.

Concerns about these and the acute shortage of water resources had led countries like Malaysia, Indonesia etc to ban the export of palm oil but above all, to reduce the domestic output itself! Other countries too were likely follow suit.

It was highly unusual, if not actually dangerous for GOI to go ahead with a massive palm oil production project, flying in the face of all existing world trends and projections. Apparently, GOI’s top priority was earning higher revenues come what may and never mind the long term existential safety of the people!

Interestingly Assam Chief Minister Mr. Himanta Biswa Sarma, known for his bold implementation methods especially for centrally-sponsored schemes, has dismissed the fears of environmentalists. He expressed his confidence that the need for more water needed for the cultivation of palm trees would be available in the shape of more rainfall in Assam itself!

Such a view has amazed and scared most people including political leaders in Assam. To local media spokesmen they have related their concerns citing the palpable de crease in annual rainfall in the state and the region, not to mention ever lengthening summer and dry spring seasons. As reported streams and rivers were drying up, trees, plants, birds and the eco system as a whole suffered. The tea crop had been hit hard with producers reporting a decline in quality and quantity of production.

There was an acute crisis of drinking water from most areas during summer and a drought-like condition for long spells in the year, blighting agricultural production.

Ignoring such signs could prove to be not only shortsighted, but suicidal, in the near future, they feared. The very bio-diversity as well as the general eco-system of the region would be threatened.

There are no signs yet that the ruling BJP leaders are heeding these warnings. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

KOLKATA: In Assam, the job security of Bengali teachers working in many schools has been endangered by the circulation of widespread reports of organised corruption in the state Education sector of West Bengal. Many of these teachers—- local Assam media estimates put their number in hundreds— are degree holders from different educational institutions in Bengal.

The Assam Government is about to launch a probe shortly, to check (a) the authenticity of their claimed educational qualifications and (b) the validity of their various certificates and other documents. This decision comes in the wake of recent mass media exposure of the illegal operations of a well organised politically- protected job racket in Bengal, that has attracted nation-wide attention.  Assam Chief Minister Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma, has lent his personal imprimatur to the move.

While Bengal-based Trinamool Congress(TMC) leaders declined comments on the issue, observers feel that some kind of political reaction in Bengal is sure to follow in the long run. The ruling TMC has been facing sustained attacks from opposition parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP), Congress(INC) and the CPI(M)-led Left Front, for the active involvement of its leaders with the reported corruption.

In particular, recent official inquiries ordered by the Calcutta High Court in numerous cases relating to the massive bribery and other financial corruption involving hundreds of crores of rupees, have badly dented the ruling TMC’s image. Its position has been further compromised by the arrest of high profile former Ministers, MLAs, and other functionaries in connection with the Job racket.

In simple terms, a joint cabal of local TMC activists, supported by a section of high officials, MLAs and Ministers, have systematically tampered with mark sheets, certificates, interview documents etc to keep out thousands of qualified male and female applicants for teaching jobs, to ease the illegal entry of mostly barely literate persons, following illegal payments running into lakhs of rupees in each case!

Hundreds of such utterly unfit ‘teachers’ have lost their jobs in recent times, but eventually the number of dismissals may exceed several thousands.

This dubious ‘salvage’ operation has continued despite the continuous protests and demonstrations held by qualified male and female job seekers for years in Kolkata and various parts of Bengal, without the slightest response/apology from the indifferent TMC leadership.

It remains to be seen whether this somewhat sensitive matter, as Bengali – origin teachers employed in primary and secondary level schools in Assam come under official pressure, TMC leaders initiate some kind of political contact with the ruling BJP government in Assam. Both Mr. Sarma and Ms Banerjee, are shrewd political leaders and enjoy near total powers to run the parties they head.

According to a leading Assam daily, the Chief minister’s office(CMO) in Assam had been inundated with scores of complaints about the recruitment of teachers in Government schools in 2019.

Allegations of widespread corruption and bribery had been made about appointees who claimed to be B-ED or DL-ED degree holders.  There were more complaints about DL-ED passed teachers. Also, there were more complaints about the unusually high number of people who claimed to have secured over 95/96% of aggregate marks.

However, there can still be no denying that Mr Sarma has been particularly critical about the degree holders from West Bengal Universities and institutions. In recent meetings with state education department officials, including Secretaries, Directors and School Inspectors, his message as reported by the local media, was significant:

According to one version, the Assam Chief Minister had said that he had no comments about the Universities of West Bengal. But he had some doubts about people who claimed to have secured high marks exceeding 90% of the aggregate from such universities. Their records must be scrutinised thoroughly, following the complaints received so far, especially from Barpeta, Goalpara and Dhubri areas.

There has been no reaction so far from TMC circles in Assam about this.(IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Improved bilateral road and rail connectivity has helped the growth of Indo-Bangladesh import/export trade, during the past decade. In particular Tripura Chief Minister Mr Manik Saha, while welcoming the robust trend of bilateral trade, is hopeful of increasing exports from the state.

However, India Government sources are concerned over the growing trade gap between the two countries in terms of business volumes and earnings in Indo-Bangladesh trade conducted in the Northeast region. Over the years, Bangladesh has increased its exports to the NE region and beyond substantially, but exports from the region have not kept pace.

The outcome of increasing bilateral trade/business for Bangladesh being strongly positive, Bangladesh authorities are naturally pleased. They have called for greater trade with NE states, a demand that has drawn a positive response from Meghalaya and the Barak Valley area of Assam. As for India, while authorities have kept track of present trends, there has been no negative over-reaction. In the context of overall Indo-Bangla trade, the country exports far more to Bangladesh than it imports.

India is the second biggest trading partner for Bangladesh, which accounts for a considerable 12% of aggregate Indian exports. The size of bilateral trade in 2021-22 was $18.2 billion. Bangladesh has been consistently seeking specific tariff and other concessions to narrow down the existing gap and has won some relief from India in recent years.

Economists feel that once the Agartala-Akhaura rail link becomes commercially operational and to-and-fro bulk cargo movement begins via the new Padma bridge, the volume of Indian exports made through the NE region would increase majorly. The long awaited route connecting Kolkata with Agartala running through Bangladesh territory, would reduce the travel time from around 32 hours to 8/10 hours on average. Export of perishable goods especially to Bangladesh from the mainland India can be speeded up using the new route.

At present, the NE component of total Indian exports to Bangladesh remains small. Nonetheless, Chief Minister Mr Saha is happy that bilateral trade/business volume in the NE region has increased from Rs 390.68 crore in 2017-18 to Rs 758.9 crore in 2022-23. Belying its comparatively small size territorially, Tripura exported items worth Rs 121 crore to the neighbouring country — no mean feat.

Considering that Bangladesh buys mostly agricultural and food items from Tripura, including tea, fruits, processed fruit items, rubber goods , bamboo products and related handicrafts , species and medicinal plants from Tripura, the trade gap is understandable. Tripura mostly imports machinery, machine parts, raw jute and related items, frozen fish and other value-added goods from Bangladesh.

Trade/business circles and economists in both countries are hopeful that if the present rate of growth in the export/import trade in the region is maintained, the area could emerge as a significant business hub in the medium term. A slow and steady development of primary level infrastructure, involving the growth of transport, banking, shopping areas and medical facilities etc, has already become noticeable on both sides of the Tripura/Bangladesh border. This should lead to further economic expansion, better road building, job creation and a gradual upskilling of local labour.

Already, the increased export earnings of Tripura have made a difference to Tripura’s economic prospects. The state‘s GSDP (Gross State Domestic Product) is scheduled to grow by 8.9% by 2023-24, by present indications. It is expected to touch 8.8% by end 2022-23. Both figures are higher than the projected GSDP growth figure for the country as a whole, estimated at around 7% at present.

This has been happening at a time when Tripura has been desperately seeking central financial assistance to maintain its growth momentum in crucial sectors of its economy. The state has long been a victim of inaccessibility in terms of transportation facilities and linkages, a difficult hilly terrain in many places, with its share of malaria and other diseases in the wooded interior and its proneness to flash floods.

Quite apart from benefiting from the improved connectivity, Tripura seeks to set up in a big way the export of rubber and rubber-based items to Bangladesh and beyond in the coming years. It is the second largest rubber growing state in India after Kerala. As for air connectivity, the Agartala airport will soon be linked with the Chittagong airport in Bangladesh, giving it an international status. This has been a long standing demand from the state Government as Tripura expects tourism to expand considerably with increasing tourist traffic from Bangladesh, Myanmar and other areas.

As with most states in the NE region, recent positive trends by way of economic development has been the major driver of peace and (by and large) political stability in the region, experts feel. Development, they insist, is the best answer to the threat of insurgency and political unrest — peace cannot be ensured by stringent legislation alone. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In South Asia, East Pakistan used to receive international media attention only during its natural calamities.  Major powers remained mostly fixated on the tensions and conflicts involving India and West Pakistan. Even after breaking away from Pakistan, Bangladesh had to wait patiently for nearly three decades before Western countries — almost reluctantly — began to take an interest in its affairs.

However, China, Japan and India in marked contrast, had engaged far more effectively with Bangladesh at various levels during the years 1985 to 2000 not ignoring the country’s steady economic progress and political stability, despite occasional turbulence.

During the past decade, sensing the growing influence of China and India in South Asia and beyond, Western diplomacy has taken a more assertive turn. Meantime Pakistan, the country the US and its allies had instinctively trusted, is threatening to come unstuck.  Instead it is Bangladesh, written off as’ a bottomless basket’ by the mighty Henry Kissinger, has survived strongly and progressed!

As Bangladesh general elections in January 2024 come closer, no wonder the world is paying a lot more attention than before. Its outcome could turn out to be of seminal importance. Both the US/EU bloc and the Bangladesh electorate have a crucial choice to make.

For the US/EU bloc, the poll results will strongly influence its long term strategic geo-political policies in the region. The majority of decisions and statements coming from this powerful Western alliance long before the elections have been firmly censorious about the HR record of the ruling Awami League.(AL) . Clearly, the West would like to see a change of guards in Dhaka, in governance/related matters.

As for Bangladeshis themselves, going by the substance of recent Dhaka-based media discourses, there is an acute awareness that how they vote in 2024 may well decide the course of their economy, going forward.

As political analysts study pre-poll developments and trends, some broad conclusions emerge: a few words about the Bangladeshi perspective are in order.

Analysts fear that if the ruling AL returns to power, the chances are Bangladesh may have to pay a very heavy economic price. No longer a less developed country, Bangladesh will lose its traditional trade concessions in the EU/US bloc countries on the export of its garments by 2026. This would mean an immediate loss of at least $5.73 billion in its garments export trade. This segment is critical to the country’s overall export earnings. An estimated 80% of these exports end up in the US/ EU bloc.

If push comes to shove for Bangladesh from Western hardliners, the livelihood of over 3 million workers in the garments sector alone could be in jeopardy — and that’s for starters!

Already, Western countries have warned that they expect from Bangladesh a reasonably free and fair elections. The international community has largely rejected the results of the last 2018 general elections, which according to the opposition parties, were massively rigged . Ignoring frantic denials from the ruling AL, West bloc countries have expressed their doubts about the present performance/policies of the incumbent government in no uncertain terms.

In plain terms ,as senior Awami League leaders concede, ‘The West is saying in effect that it would accept the outcome of the polls only if (a) either the BNP-led opposition wins a fair number of seats or (b) it defeats the AL ! If this is not interfering in the domestic elections of a sovereign independent country, what else is it?’

Also, the abiding Western antipathy towards the ruling AL, not least because of the support it enjoyed from the erstwhile USSR and India in the seventies, is no secret. During those times the US was hobnobbing with Pakistan over developments in Afghanistan, carrying out its proxy war against the USSR and opening up politically to China — never mind Bangladesh!

Now that Bangladesh has achieved a measure of regional importance and economic progress, the US cannot ignore the country’s importance in South Asia. This is a region where China has already emerged as the biggest investor during the last decade. It has announced a proposal for investment in Bangladesh infra related projects of over $22 billion over the next five years.

But the AL remains as unacceptable to the West as ever. The US has announced sanctions against the Rapid Action Battalion for its alleged human rights violations and warned of future visa restrictions against individual Bangladeshi officials trying to sabotage opposition efforts in the coming elections!

Such public arm-twisting among major countries is unprecedented, according to protesting Bangladeshi politicians. Worse, it has dented the international prestige, credibility and image of the AL.

Given this backdrop, it can be safely assumed that if the AL wins, it will face numerous hurdles in the West regarding its export trade, financial aid and other substantial help from international economic agencies — such as the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank or the International Monetary Fund.

Yet, it would politically risque to assume that Western clout will succeed in browbeating either the ruling AL or Bangladeshi voters into accepting American dictates on the coming election.. One Bangladeshi analyst points out, actually the US-led lobby in Bangladesh might have started its pressure tactics too late.

In terms of winning local influence, a few intellectuals, academics and some Bangladeshi NGOs have been generally supporting the Western stance on the Ukraine war etc. In contrast, through bilateral programmes and visits, common religious and cultural gatherings, various exhibitions etc, thousands of Bangladeshis have been participating in events involving China, Japan or India!

In terms of extending its diplomatic/related outreach, the US-led West lags far behind Bangladesh’s regional neighbours!

Commenting on the present alignment of political forces and trends, other writers mention that for years, China has been fulfilling defence equipment requirements for Bangladesh, costing millions of dollars. This, added to China’s deep commitment in the infra sector development, has created an influential, favourable lobby of pro-China officials in Dhaka.

Similarly, there exists sizable pro-India lobby within the Bangladeshi establishment, thanks to consistent Indian support and help for Bangladesh’s development, quite apart from Delhi’s all out support to the freedom movement in 1970-71. There is also a smaller pro-Russia lobby, which may help in working out a favourable deal regarding future supplies of oil/gas, etc.

Bangladesh has consistently followed a neutral policy of independence on issues relating to international power rivalries. It is seeking an immediate membership within the growing BRICS group. It is striving to reduce its dependence on the use of the US dollar as the dominant international currency.

When it comes to asserting their independence, some analysts reason, Bangladeshis can be very touchy. Pakistan understood this too late. The US too, they feel, must not push the ruling AL too hard over the next elections. Already, there are unconfirmed reports suggesting that some Bangladeshi politicians have warned Western diplomats that their over-eagerness to interfere with the coming elections may push Bangladesh into a firmer embrace with China.

There is a general perception in Bangladesh that while India has not commented publicly on the election and related matters, Delhi would prefer another term in office for the ruling AL. The party has emerged over the years as India’s closest regional ally. The India-Bangladesh bonhomie, it has been alleged by the opposition BNP and others, helped India more. But of late even the BNP has stopped accusing India as strongly as it did before. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

From Manipur, the continuing ethnic strife far from being controlled, has currently impacted the political situation in neighbouring Assam: State Chief Minister Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma, regardless of his assiduously nurtured image as the region’s political strong man, is suddenly under acute pressure to explain his old links with terrorist and insurgent groups!

This unexpected twist came in the wake of an obvious failure of the recent official mission of Union Home Minister Mr Amit Shah, seeking to end the Meitei-Kuki ethnic conflict and help restore local peace and order. Mr Shah had during his two-day Imphal visit announced a few measures to bring the warring groups closer, after meeting concerned political stakeholders and officials.

But the continuation of group clashes, along with fresh signs of illegal infiltration of armed groups from neighbouring Myanmar during the past 48 hours , indisputably indicate a general failure of control and authority on part both the centre as well as the Manipur government to arrest the slide into anarchy.

Thirteen Meiteis were killed in a recent ambush at Kangpokpi district by suspected Kuki militants, while the tribes in the hills complained of being targeted by Meiteis.

While it has taken the efforts of an Assam Congress leader to unearth/expose a few embarrassing details of Mr Sarma’s eventful past political record, the larger question — what had led the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) to project people with a controversial track record as the ruling party’s unchallenged spokesman in a troubled region — remains to be answered.

For the record, twelve opposition political parties in Assam, including Congress, the CPI(M), Raisor Dol, Assam Jatiya Parishad, CPI, RJD and JD(U)  the Trinamool Congress and the CPI(M-L) demanded Mr Sarma’s arrest under the National Security Act, for his alleged links with terrorist and extreme mist organisations in the past, including a few outlawed Kuki tribal organisations. Unless the centre responded, spokesmen of these parties told Assam-based media, they would visit Delhi to press their demands.

These leaders alleged that it was not surprising that Mr Sarma had proceeded during his present tenure as the Chief Minister, to disturb the political situation and existing ethnic/communal harmony through his controversial tactics of weakening the opposition. His methods included organising brutal police encounters and bulldozing of private property at short notice, harassing political opponents with false cases and targeting social backward communities and groups not considered the BJP’s political vote bank.

Such methods, not unexpected from a leader who himself cultivated links with NE-based extremist groups, had created a reign of terror among various social groups and communities in Assam and elsewhere. They had been bitterly criticised by national as well as foreign human rights groups and by the judicial authorities at times.

Surprisingly, there had been no condemnation, not even any mild criticism from the central BJP leadership, of such methods pursued by Mr Sarma. On the contrary, his responsibilities as the party’s supremo in the region, answerable only to the Modi-Shah duo, had increased with time indicating his growing clout and weight within the saffron party.

Nor was it a surprise , said these leaders, to learn that Mr. Sarma had confidentially met representatives of Kuki organisations in Guwahati only days ago, after he had visited Imphal in a bid to douse the flames of continuing ethnic violence in the region. He had met leaders of various groups and officials, including BJP Ministers at Manipur, no doubt on instructions from Delhi. However, there was no official briefing after the meeting with kukis in Guwahati.

The controversy began as state Congress President Mr. Bhupen Borah referred to a recent admission made by a Kuki extremist leader to National Investigation Authority (NIA) officials. The latter had claimed that the Kukis as a tribe had secretly agreed to support the BJP’s bid to win power in Manipur. This had followed pre/Manipur poll negotiations held between Mr Sarma, Mr Ram Madhav, leader of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangha (RSS) and Kuki militant leaders.

Mr Borah’s contention was that a dangerous precedent had been set by the BJP to choose as its regional head of the party in the NE region and appoint as the chief Minister of a major state like Assam, a person known for his anti –centre and extremist links. His view found broad support from other opposition parties in Assam as well.

Not only that, Mr Sarma prior to joining Congress had been arrested under the TADA legislation which sought to punish pro-secession-minded activists of the banned ULFA organisation!

It was strange that the Modi-Shah combination, Mr Borah had said, could find no other leader in Assam or in the NE region as a whole to project its party programmes and its policies. Such trends showed that the BJP was willing to align itself with extremist organisations in Manipur and elsewhere merely in order to win elections and assume power! Such an unprincipled approach could never ensure peace or progress in a politically troubled, volatile region like India’s Northeast. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Long nurtured international prejudices die hard, if at all: However, the unrelenting Bangladeshi diplomatic initiative of recent years, seeking global condemnation of the Pak –sponsored mass slaughter of innocent Bengali civilian population during the 1971 freedom struggle, is beginning to pay off at last. The liberation fighters of the eastern part of Pakistan declared independence from Pakistan on March 26, 1971.

For once, most Bangladeshis feel vindicated by an admission about that under-reported massacre made by former Netherlands Minister Mr Harry Van Bommel, a leading anti-globalist socialist crusader to boot, with a significant following in the EU countries.

Mr Bommel unreservedly supported Dhaka’s demand to record the mass killing of unarmed Bengalis by Pak troops as an act of ‘genocide’. Even more encouraging was his assertion that it may not take the world community 100 years to recognize the Pak military’s role in the genocide. He reminded Bangladeshis that it had taken over a century for the international community to condemn the Turkish attack against Armenia back in 1920s, as genocide.

Mr Bommel was participating with other representatives/HR campaigners from EU countries in an officially organised conference in Dhaka with the brutal 1971 massacres as the main theme.

Bangladesh has been struggling for decades to make Pakistan officially apologise for its policies in the seventies and to rekindle world attention to the extent of horrors unleashed on an unsuspecting civilian population by a brutal, rampaging army.

Supported by fellow participants, Mr Bommel promised to campaign harder on the sensitive issue in the EU countries when he returned home.

Dhaka-based analysts said this reveals a growing division among the ranks of the EU countries/US regarding sub continental political impact the of 70-71 Pak civil war. Two major South Asian countries went to war. The US and the then USSR, threatened to intervene, reviving the spectre of World War III.

India’s economy and governance were threatened as US-backed Pakistani rulers showed no signs of accommodating the demands of the Bengali Muslims of the eastern part of Pakistan.

Even after Bangladesh emerged as an independent country, most Western nations did not recognize it, let alone help the devastated Eastern territory with minimal material assistance! Their hostility continued right up to 1974 when the Bangladeshis faced a major famine! The latter were punished for having broken up and weakening Pakistan, a tested long term friend of the US and W. Europe in their struggle against the USSR!

In 2023 however, there is little doubt that the voice of Bangladesh is being heard in different international fora with greater attention than before, but the real explanation from Dhaka’s point of view, could at best be cynical than otherwise.

Perceptions changing in the West may not necessarily signify a new exalted ethics being pursued by the policymakers. Many Bangladeshis believe that their views are taken more seriously these days only because of the economic progress made by their country in recent decades. The contrast between the economic performance of Bangladesh with miserable track record of their former Pakistani masters could not be more acute. ‘Whether in international relations or personal matters, money talks’ is a socially accepted view expressed in Bangladeshi mass media articles.

Prospects for a Pak-Bangladesh reconciliation have not been helped by the consistent refusal of Islamabad, even as it strives for better relations with its former eastern province, to issue a formal apology that the ruling Awami League (AI) insists on. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has also stood firm on this, not least because almost her entire family was wiped out in 1975 by a an army coup engineered by pro-Pak elements of the new Bangladesh army.

The Mujib-killers had promptly initiated steps to repair and resume the damaged political ties with the Western wing, again supported by the US.

Naturally, In Bangladesh there is little doubt among common people that Pakistan would never have stuck to its stubborn refusal to say sorry unless the US was encouraging it not to yield to any AL demand. Most American politicians regardless of affiliations are wary of the ruling AL which they feel is aggressively nationalistic. This is in contrast with the more amenable — from a Western point of view — opposition led by the BNP.

The US was the only major country that materially and morally supported the Pak crackdown in Bangladesh, while condemning the Bengali freedom movement as secessionist. Pakistan was a firm western ally. Therefore it could not be weakened or broken up, in American calculations. The fact that India and the erstwhile USSR actively supported the Bangladeshi movement for freedom only hardened US antagonism against the agitation in the East.

Having failed decisively to protect Pakistan, it has not been uncommon to see Western leaders continuing the old pro-Pak policy by allowing political asylum and money to discredited dictators and other political scum rejected by common people in Pakistan or Bangladesh, for ‘services’ they had rendered in the past!

So deep was the distrust and hatred of former US President Nixon and his Chief international adviser Henry Kissinger about the agitation in Bangladesh, that they urged upon the then American envoy to East Pakistan, Mr. Archer Blood, not to involve himself too much with what was happening on the ground! Blood’s ‘crime’ was that he was filing daily reports about the mass killings to Washington, reminiscent of Lord Wavell’s dire warnings about the Bengal famine of 1940s, to London!

Mr. Bommel, according to Dhaka-based accounts, taking note that over 70 years had passed since the massacre, actually suggested that US pressure was at work on most Western countries, choosing not to pull up Pakistan for its actions.

Pakistan has so far expressed a general regret for the 1970-71 incidents. Bangladeshis did not consider this an adequate expression of an apology.

In their recent references to the issue, most western powers have broadly echoed the US-Pak line, expressing a token regret and a request to Bangladesh to move on!

This is not to suggest that the swell of condemnation has not become stronger over the years even in the West, over the engineered silence on the struggle of the Bengalis. In part, the resounding failure if successive Pak rulers to put their own house in order and end their support to Islamic terrorism, have also led the US and EU countries to question more closely the so-called preference for Pakistan. The determined efforts by Mr. Blood and analyses prepared by subsequent US scholars/researchers dealing with Bangladesh, have led to stronger domestic condemnation for the pro-dictatorship line taken by the then US administration.

However, while Mr Bommel’s views were welcome, Dhaka policymakers are not exactly overwhelmed by his support. There is no feeling as yet that the West as a whole would condemn Pakistan in stronger terms and describe the mass Bangladeshi slaughter as ‘genocide’. At best, it is a sign that things are changing for the better diplomatically for Bangladesh.

For a relatively a young country like Bangladesh at a time of worldwide torment, that in itself is no mean achievement. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Union Home Minister Mr Amit Shah’s belated announcement assuring that no official decision would be made regarding a proposed alteration in the status of Meitei tribespeople in Manipur state without a comprehensive discussion among all concerned groups and stakeholders is most welcome.

However, the violent Manipur episode has left several disturbing questions in its wake that need answering urgently. These mainly concern GOI’s style of governance, especially in an ethnically hypersensitive region. The inordinate amount of time taken by powerful GOI authorities to make only a bland anti-climactic announcement after a prolonged outbreak of mob violence, hardly enhanced the image of the ruling BJP-led NDA. After all, an explosive ethnic issue that called for handling with extreme delicacy, had instead been dealt with an appalling official insensitivity.

Even more worrying in this context is an obvious intelligence failure on part of concerned state and central agencies, to anticipate the massive fallout of their recent moves. Preliminary assessment reports confirmed the death of at least 64 people, destruction of property including Government offices and places of worship, to the tune of (est) Rs 100 crore, added to the spillover effect in Assam, Meghalaya and Arunachal Pradesh …… with fresh details still coming in.

Nevertheless in effect if not by intent, Shah’s statement was received with a sigh of collective relief. One question arises: why, in recent times, GOI seems to have become contemptuously intolerant of all contrary opinion on even matters of urgent public interest?

One would have expected the NDA Government — it is of little use blaming the Manipur Government for the crisis that was thrust upon it by Delhi-based policymakers! — to have learnt a lesson in good governance from its earlier retreat in its prestige fight against North India’s rich peasantry over the Farmers’ Bills in Nov 2021. Now the centre has had to take a step back again, this time in Manipur, but only in the face of a major eruption of ethnic violence that briefly shook the region’s stability.

In other words: Is it fair to conclude, as is apparent from the NDA’s recent functioning, that GOI will concede ground in matters involving the economic destinies of large groups of people in different parts of India, only in the face of prolonged violence and sustained resistance — and never mind the overall cost to the nation in terms of time lost in destruction of lives and property, loss of production and a myriad other negative consequences? Should this be India’s way forward in the new millennium?

One wonders how India’s pro-establishment journalists and spin doctors would respond to such questions — assuming that they’ll deign to respond!

Delhi’s conciliatory announcement, as stated, came only after an estimated 64 [people were killed in violent ethnic clashes, which returned to the otherwise peaceful region after a break of some years. Property mostly including government-owned or built assets and places of worship were targeted by frenzied mobs.

There was a widespread displacement of people on a national scale, as most forms of socio-economic activity were disrupted for days — offices remained shut, as well as shops, markets and schools. People were simply too busy in getting away from troubled Manipur as fast as they could.

There was the all important question: what had prompted the Guwahati High Court, GOI authorities and the Manipur administration to press for the inclusion of the dominant Meitei tribespeople as a scheduled tribe at this point of time?

It is common knowledge that despite being the dominant ethnic group in Manipur, the Meiteis who account for 53% of the state’s population, have long standing grievances. The remaining population includes the Kukis, Hmars, some Naga groups and 31 other smaller ethnicities. The Kukis and Nagas are mostly Christians unlike the Meiteis.

In recent years, there have been allegations from the majority Meiteis of a growing marginalisation coupled with increasing social assertion from the smaller tribes, especially the Kukis. The most serious complaint from some Meitei organisations has been that even the state Census operations have been conducted unfairly and the community has seen its overall percentage within the state population shrink over the year. This coupled with social benefits and special concessions that smaller officially registered tribes enjoy in the state, has been causing frustration and tensions within the larger Meitei community.

Therefore the demand for the inclusion of the Meiteis was neither unfair nor a conspiracy, say leaders of the community.

In addition certain other factors had led to new social tensions over the years, such as the unregulated entry of outstation people including illegal Bangladeshis, to the state. Such illegal migration and settlements were slowly altering the existing population patterns and worse, this was happening because of the collusion among some officials and politicians. Illegal settlements had come up in reserve forest areas, the green forest cover had been destroyed in some places.

The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) both in the state and the Centre, drawing their main support from the Meiteis, could not remain indifferent to such complaints. Central and state BJP leaders, helped also by advice by senior regional leaders like Assam Chief Minister Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma among others, put together what they felt would be a new fair socio-economic package for the Meiteis. It cannot be denied that the BJP’s move was influenced by familiar considerations associated with what is commonly denounced as practicing ‘vote bank politics’.

Enlisting the Meiteis themselves also within the ST category, BJP leaders felt, would at a stroke empower the community financially, ending their frustrations significantly. Along with this, the authorities would also conduct a drive to ascertain the extent of illegal immigration to Manipur, by carrying out official searches in different areas, to check how many people especially living in deep interior areas possessed requisite official citizenship documents.

Different ethnic groups however, strongly protested against both these moves. Social tensions/anger mounted, especially as the drive to check citizenship began .Matters came to a boil as armed Meitei groups, according to reports, accompanied officials in some cases as they went about their unpleasant business. It was not long before neighbour turned against neighbour in different areas within an otherwise peaceful Northeastern state .Inexorably, as one incident followed another, the decks were cleared for a major ethnic confrontation that brought credit neither to the state nor the centre. The rest as the saying goes is history. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Despite timely steps taken by the Government to avert a Sri Lanka-type of economic meltdown, general concern for the Bangladeshi economy continues. While the International Monetary Fund (IMF) promised a $4.5 billion loan to Bangladesh to help it shore up declining forex reserves, there are worries in Dhaka as to whether Bangladesh will face new pressures to implement deep-going economic reforms.

Suspicions suggesting that Western agencies may extract a political price from Bangladeshi rulers for any relief they might provide, became stronger after a recent visit by IMF authorities to Dhaka. Fund officials had come to assess the present situation in the country. Their gloomy parting words to Dhaka-based Ministers/officials did not generate much joy, going by local media reports.

The IMF fears that the chances of the economy slipping further could not be ruled out, given the existing inflationary conditions, present levels of production and the deteriorating standards of living for most people. Bangladesh urgently needed to initiate much needed reforms within its economy if it wanted to avoid the fate of Sri Lanka.

Meanwhile, section of the local media has been comparing the trajectories of recent economic developments in the two countries. Their overall tone has been noticeably depressive.

With less than a year left for general elections, no wonder the Bangladesh government is caught in a dilemma: it cannot afford to ignore suggestions from helpful Western financial institutions, especially in the present economic crisis. On the other hand, the already hardpressed common people, caught in the worst economic squeeze of their lives, may well erupt in anger towards any further economic burdens imposed on them.

Any further withdrawal of official subsidies in ongoing public welfare schemes at present may just turn out to be the proverbial final straw that breaks the camel’s back: by any reckoning that would be the ruling Awami league’s worst nightmare in an election year !

Also it is common knowledge that while working out any bailout scheme or aid package for developing countries, Western financial advice almost invariably insists on doing away with official pro-poor subsidies in the system to the extent possible.

In common with most governments in the region, Bangladesh used to provide significant subsidies to the power and transport sectors for years to make sure that common people despite occasional price increases for imported fuel (oil, diesel etc) did not suffer too much.

The situation worsened following the outbreak of war in Ukraine, which has already extended over a year. The Bangladeshi economy suffered several major blows and is still reeling from an overall negative impact.

The US dollar strengthened against major world currencies, while the Bangladesh Taka declined in value. Outcome: essential imports like fuels, fertilisers etc became much costlier while previous volumes/levels of exports became increasingly harder to maintain. Within months, Bangladesh’s usually healthy forex reserves which touched $40- billion plus at times, started dwindling and dropped precariously to around $28/29 billion.

The writing was on the wall : within a few months , Bangladesh , which had helped Sri Lanka financially in its desperate battle to escape bankruptcy, was itself seeking help from the IMF, the third country in South Asia to do so after Pakistan and of course Sri Lanka.

Dhaka-based policymakers had little choice but to cut down drastically on subsidies as the prices of fuel (oil, diesel, natural gas and kerosene) rose sharply during the Ukraine war. Its decision to reduce subsidies however hit the common people very hard indeed as in most areas, fuel prices rose by as steep as 50%. No wonder there were angry mass demonstrations, transport strikes and massive power cuts, as the entire economy took a body blow.

It needs stressing that this happened at a time when inflation was around 10% and the price of rice, eggs, fruits, wheat and vegetables had already risen sharply !

The ruling Government simply had no clue. More worryingly, there was nowhere the policymakers could go to for expert advice. Within the region, as stated before Sri Lanka and Nepal were hit even harder if anything and India with problems of its own, had stopped exporting wheat for some time, as supplies from Ukraine and Russia became uncertain.

Yet, it is not as though all hope has run out for Bangladesh, it needs to be stated.

According to sources analysts feel that for Bangladesh, repaying the $4.5 billion IMF loan would not be difficult, despite its present travails. This is where the stronger economic fundamentals of the Bangladeshi economy stand out in strong contrast to conditions and features of the situation prevailing in neighbouring Sri Lanka or Nepal.

In terms of size, production and population, the Bangladesh economy is much bigger than that of either Nepal or Sri Lanka. So are its traditional strengths in the export of garments and the steady volume of the remittances that are regularly sent home by an estimated 13 million-strong Bangladeshi diaspora settled worldwide.

In recent times, there have been occasional wobbles in both these sectors, adding to Bangladeshi concerns: export orders especially from some European countries have fluctuated because of ongoing uncertainties and recessionary trends affecting their economies.

Fortunately however, there have been recoveries as well. It has been no different with remittances either. But for minor hiccups, the large overall volumes of remittances have continued as before.

Given the large Bangladeshi population of around 165 million, with its high percentage of working women and young workers and existing levels of production, it should not be difficult to generate enough revenues in the future, of a magnitude that would enable Dhaka to meet its international obligations, say economists.

However, the power sector suffers from chronic shortages of production and remains an area for concern. GOB has already taken some steps and is desperately asking for more supplies especially from big neighbour India. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

By end 2023, rail journey time for passengers between Kolkata and the three Barak valley districts of Assam via Dhaka, Bangladesh may be reduced to 15/16 hours only, if things run according to plan. A Kolkata-Agartala journey would take only around 10 hours, according to Railway authorities.

People in Assam, Meghalaya and Bangladesh naturally see the proposed rescheduling of mass traffic movements as a big leap forward in improving connectivity and catalysing potential regional economic development. Officials, opinion-makers and the Barak valley mainstream media have welcomed recent game-changing improvements in overall regional Railway connectivity. Railway authorities say that following prolonged bilateral discussions, old rail linkages which initially dwindled and finally dried up between east Pakistan and India after 1965, were revived wherever possible.

But preliminary preparatory work, the bulk of which was conducted by Indian railway authorities, also called for making certain local changes. Much time was taken to work out new alignments, linkages and charting/strengthening old/new routes. The construction/completion of new lines, facilities, depots and taking care of other operational details involved non-stop work carried out during the last five years.

For more than seven decades since 1947, people living in NE states have been resigned to travelling over 1500 kilometres in 36 hours, via the narrow Siliguri connector while accessing the Indian mainland through Bihar and West Bengal. More often than not, their journey took much longer depending on the seasons and the unpredictably volatile political situation in some of the states/areas lying along the long route. Major service disruptions through frequent floods or bandhs called by extremist organisations occurred with annual regularity.

Even more than the harassment for passengers, the loss in terms of time and money for traders and businessmen in the NE states because of such disruptions has also contributed to the relative economic backwardness of the region. Outstation investors were generally disinclined to move to the NE states. Most of NE-based businessmen on the other hand depended on the much larger mainland Indian market to sell their goods and products, but they too were hit hard because of such poor communication. Organisations connected closely with local economic projects and the overall economic development of the NE region such as DONER, have also welcomed the steady upgradation in rail/road connectivity between India and Bangladesh.

Despite some marginal/unregulated informal border trade, their nearest neighbouring hinterland/markets in Bangladesh were hardly accessible because of political reasons.

However, thanks to the implementation of various road/rail connectivity projects and the opening up of regional trade among South Asian countries in recent years, aided and encouraged by international organisations like the International Monetary Fund, the Asian development Bank and the World Bank, matters have changed of late.

For understandable reasons of cultural/linguistic similarities, the majority of people in Tripura and the three Bengali-speaking Barak valley districts in Assam have been keener to establish closer contact with West Bengal and Bangladesh. Many of them came over to NE states, West Bengal and other states of India as refugees escaping from East Pakistan. However, some have left relatives behind in Bangladesh. The present population of Tripura is around 4.1 million people and of the Barak Valley, around 4.3 million.

For such people the halt in Dhaka would be welcome in renewing old ties and on a commercial level to establish new economic contacts. India and Bangladesh authorities have agreed to set up one immigration checkpost at Nischintpur to ensure hassle-free movement.

The construction of a major new bridge on the river Feni, a project bilaterally expedited thanks to a special interest taken by Bangladesh Prime Minister Mrs H. Wazed, would also help in improving present linkages between Bangladesh and Tripura. Over time, a new industrial-economic corridor between Tripura and Comilla/other nearby districts in Bangladesh has been proposed by local chambers of commerce and commercial lobbies on both sides of the border.

Now that the massive new Padma rail-cum-road bridge has been completed in Bangladesh, there is a proposal in Bangladesh to (a) increase rail movement between Dhaka and Kolkata by reducing present travel time of around 8 hours to 4 hours only, using new linkages. The idea has been enthusiastically received in West Bengal, too. The two countries have also agreed in principle to increase the frequency of trains running between Kolkata and Khulna stations. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In northeast Indian states, upset Christians feel they must protest more vigorously against the recent demolition of a few churches in Manipur and Assam, for which they hold the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) accountable. Intriguingly, Nagaland-based Christians have reacted more sharply than their follow religionists in the region.

The Nagaland Pradesh Congress Committee (NPCC) according to local regional media reports a few days ago, went beyond merely criticising the ruling parties of the region for what it felt was an attack against the Church.  In a statement it simultaneously deplored the apparent indifference on part of Christian legislators in the region over such sensitive matters affecting the community. It appealed to Christian politicians not to be overwhelmed by political power or money.

Reports from some areas suggested that local government authorities had launched strict action against illegal constructions/encroachments built without permission, violating existing rules. Churches were not spared. According to one Dimapur-based account, the churches destroyed were the Evangelical Baptist Convention Church, the Evangelical Lutheran church in Manipur and the Catholic Holy Spirit Church, in addition to another in Assam. The demolitions were carried out a few days ago by local authorities accompanied by security forces.

The NPCC statement flayed Christian lawmakers in the NE states as well as those elected to the Indian Parliament for their failure to raise the issue at any level. The ruling BJP, it was alleged had correctly assessed the numerical and other weaknesses that Christians suffered from, exploiting them to its own advantage. Not too many churches in the tribal areas had proper construction permits, it was explained.

Clearly this was a time for Christians to come together to protect their faith and identity. In India, the North and West regions generally voted for ‘Hindu nationalism’ while in other areas people voted for their identity and pride. The community, according to the NPCC must not ignore the present threat to their identity, it was stressed.

Expressing its surprise over the lack of reaction among Chief Ministers of Christian dominated states of Mizoram, Nagaland and Meghalaya, the NPCC felt the leaders were more interested in getting closer to the ruling BJP than anything else. Even in Manipur, Christians accounted for some 40% of the population.

Going by experience, observers said, it was a question of time before US/EU-based NGOs and Christian organizations would register their protest over what had happened in the Northeast, given their close ties with various Christian bodies and organisations in the region.

Over the years, there have been regular complaints about the increasing harassment, assaults, etc against Christians and Muslims in India especially after 2014 when the BJP was first elected to power. Churches and missionaries have often come under grievous attacks by enraged mobs in the past, but those guilty have usually been punished.

Also, by the standards of a largely populated country like India, such incidents have been few and far between. Among conservative Hindus and Muslims in the sub continent, there has remained an undercurrent of hostility against religious Conversion and other activities on part of certain Christian organisations, which have led to tension/violence in India and Pakistan.

In India, over 50% of Christians live in South India. Among Christians in India 37% are Catholics, followed by Baptists and communities led by the Churches of North and South India. Christians account for only 2.4% of the population composed mostly of former Hindus. Among younger people embracing the faith, 37% are from scheduled castes, followed by about 34% from the scheduled tribes.

Interestingly, many Indian Christians have been known to share some of the beliefs and value systems of their fellow citizens in different areas, without compromising their religious identity in any way. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

There has been a mixed diplomatic response from various foreign countries attending the recent G20 sessions in different states of India’s lush-green Northeast.

Most among the attending foreign ministers and diplomats preferred discussing local/regional   development and tourism-related matters. This was in consonance with the generally agreed upon format of the G20 sessions, as explained earlier by the Government of India, the host.

The lone exception was Germany, as it referred to the internal developments in Nagaland and called for an urgent settlement of the issues pending between the local people andthe Government of India.

German Consul General Mr. Manfred Auster praised the “maturity of Indian democracy” in allowing a reference to “Nagaland peoples’ demands” in his speech, adding that people abroad were familiar with such matters from media reports. He advised the Government of India and Naga organisations to arrive at a lasting solution to the Nagaland problems, based on fair, balanced dialogue. He added that “conflicts like the war in Ukraine should be avoided”, and that the territorial integrity of all countries/states must be respected.

There were definite political underpinnings to Auster’s apparently none-too-controversial   comments about the sensitive issues involved in the long-ongoing talks on Nagaland matters.   It could be inferred that his words of ‘advice’ had little to do with the agreed upon official framework of the G20 summit programmes.

Previously, Delhi had insisted that 2023 G20 meets would not be the forum to discuss or comment upon complicated international conflicts like the Ukraine war, or political issues pertaining to the attending countries’ domestic situations.

However, major Naga organisations and civil rights groups utilized the occasion of international diplomats’ presence to express their strong criticism of the Indian army corps stationed in the state as well as the Government of India’s policies. They pressed for international intervention to help the larger Naga cause. In a joint statement, local bodies like the Naga Students’ Federation, Naga Mothers Association, the Naga Hoho, and Christian-backed human rights groups’ spokespersons demanded immediate global diplomatic censure, providing details of human rights violations and suppression of democratic norms by the Indian government.

Intriguingly, neither the state nor the central Indian authorities chose to respond to the German consul’s comments, there being no Northeastern media reports about any words from official spokespersons. Nagaland Chief Minister Neiphu Rio deplored what he described as a revival of entrenched tribalism among a section of Nagas in a different context. There was hardly any response from India’s External Affairs Ministry either, even days after the joint Naga statement, issued during the first week of April.

Observers found this to be significant. Relations between India and Germany have not been particularly cordial of late, especially after German Foreign Minister Ms. Annalena Baerbock had unexpectedly called for a revival of the long-discarded ‘UN  plebiscite formula to settle the Kashmir dispute’ some time ago. Indian media analysts as well as politicians, cutting across party affiliations, had slammed her for her apparent lack of knowledge about the present status of Indo-Pak consultations on the Kashmir situation.

The German government had not strongly reacted to such Indian criticism at the time.

However, by publicly calling for a lasting peace in Nagaland from a non-political forum now, Mr. Auster served notice that Berlin would continue to express its views on internal matters  of India, regardless of any possible negative diplomatic fallout. India-based analysts see this as a continuation of the general line presently pursued by Ms. Baerbock and the team she leads in foreign policy matters — following what is known as the ‘value-guided diplomacy’.

This approach, purely seen in terms of its immediate impact, is markedly different from the more placatory line employed by diplomats/ministers in the United States, United Kingdom or France, while discussing sensitive issues, including India-related matters.

Incidentally, Auster made no mention of the years of tortuous negotiations carried on by successive Indian governmental officials with leaders of various Naga groups of armed   secessionists, like the two NSCN factions, and the considerable progress achieved so far. The German consul, similarly, had little to no appreciation for the largely peaceful situation prevailing in Nagaland in recent times, and the obvious improvements in the living standards of the common people in the state.

Nor was it clear if he indeed was aware of the complicated historical ties governing Nagaland and Manipur relations, or the controversial demand for creating Greater Nagaland, i.e., a larger territory for Nagaland by carving out more land from its immediate neighbouring states.

Incidentally, it is not just in India or Asia that German diplomats/ministers get involved in controversies. In Africa, Chad just ordered the expulsion of German Ambassador, Mr. Jan Christian Gordon Kricke, giving him a 48-hour notice. The charge against him is undesirable interference in local politics. Berlin authorities said they were studying the situation, adding that they could not understand the reasons for the ‘somewhat extreme’ Chadian decision.

Reverting to the nub of the G20 meetings, apart from the unplanned diplomatic sideshow in Nagaland, there is no question that much useful discussion took place within the slightly informal and relaxed local ambience of the Northeastern region. Nagaland, Mizoram, Manipur and Sikkim authorities succeeded in showcasing the rich potential of tourism-related trade and business, with special attention paid to the development of arts and crafts, agro-processing and food-based products.

As can be expected, advanced countries expressed their intent in making investments in some areas of Nagaland, Mizoram and other states. Their offers varied: diplomats from Japan focused on encouraging/sponsoring public welfare-related projects like arranging water supply, sponsoring projects aiming to improve basic education, or generating power from garbage. Japan has also been very keen to make major investments in the infrastructure development schemes in the Northeastern region as a whole.

In recent times, in terms of developing regional trade and business, Thailand had proposed to sponsor and participate in agro-business and fruit-processing schemes in Assam and other parts of the Northeast. The emphasis was more in developing the small and medium enterprises (SME) sector in both countries, with special stress on the relative strengths of concerned economies.

However, a more substantive offer of investments came from Bangladesh, for Nagaland. Bangladesh delegates proposed to set up a paper-producing unit in the state, a proposal enthusiastically welcomed received by Chief Minister Rio. Bangladesh also sought to access bulk supplies of pulses from Nagaland.

Mr. Rio suggested that the closed-down Tuli paper mill at Mokokchong could be revived by Bangladeshi investors, apart from referring to the possibility of setting up new units.

Bangladeshi entrepreneurs were keen to invest in the NE-based trade in the past as well, expressing their preference for launching joint venture projects in Tripura. Dhaka had called for expanding and upgrading the border ‘haats’ and checkpoints with Meghalaya seeking to increase the volume of bilateral border trade and business.

Meghalaya authorities, responding positively, appealed to the central government to take special measures to step up bilateral trade and catalyse local economic growth.

All told, the G20 meetings, attended by 29 delegates from 20 countries augured well for the Northeastern region. There were preliminary talks on how to take things forward through follow-up programmes on the discussions conducted both at the B2B and B2G levels.

It was an added advantage for the Northeastern region and India’s neighbouring countries within the ASEAN bloc that some projects were already discussed in connection with the BIMSTEC initiative, or India’s Look/Act East programmes.

The proceedings ended on a positive note, with Japan announcing its intent to sponsor special connectivity schemes to link the Northeastern states more effectively with the Bay of Bengal coastline, through Tripura and Bangladesh. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

KOLKATA: In an unexpected turn of events, a section of Christians living in Pakistan has issued its strong endorsement of the new citizenship legislation introduced by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Government in India. The small yet commonly persecuted Pak-based Christian community is hopeful that it may be possible for its members to migrate successfully to India as refugees.

A hypothesis of sorts in support of the novel idea in the context of Pakistan was published recently at some length in one of the few journals run by local Christians.

Kolkata-based analysts find the write-up somewhat intriguing, not least because the recent legislation relating to citizenship issues — specifically the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) — recently triggered massive, none-too-peaceful civic protests, in parts of India. Especially the large Muslim community agitated vigorously against some of the CAA’s provisions, which they alleged, specifically targeted their basic rights.

Liberal opinion in India too, had broadly supported the protesters. Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi was excoriated in the Western mainstream media, which viewed the CAA as a highly divisive, exclusionist piece of legislation that was biased against Muslims.

According to the provisions of the CAA Hindus, Christians, Buddhists, Parsis and Sikhs living in neighbouring Pakistan, Afghanistan or Bangladesh could come over to India as refugees if they felt persecuted because of their religion. They could settle in India and become eligible for citizenship after spending six years.

The Act does not include Muslims in this category. Defending the omission, Mr Modi as well as Union Home Minister Mr Amit Shah had repeatedly asserted that all three neighbouring countries had a Muslim majority, so the question of Muslims being oppressed did not arise.

This did not satisfy not only major minority organisations like the AIMIM, Jamat-e-Islami or the AIUDF in India. Major parties including Congress CPI, CPIM), TMC, SP, BSP and RJD also opposed the CAA as being discriminatory against Muslims. Liberals further reasoned that in Pakistan and other Muslim countries, Shias , Ahmedias and other groups/sects within the larger Muslim community were often subjected murderous attacks and otherwise discriminated against. As a secular country by Constitution defined, India could set a noble example by offering its help to such Muslims in distress. However, most BJP leaders vigorously rejected such demands.

The Pak-based Christian author argued that there had always been a steady diaspora of members of the minority groups in Pakistan who quit their motherland, to escape religious persecution by settling down in friendlier countries. In recent years, there had been a major uptick in the number of Pak citizens leaving their homes to seek a better, but primarily safer, life elsewhere.

Most people opted to emigrate to the West, even if this involved adopting illegal means to reach foreign shores, ignoring great risks and life-threatening perils along the way. The lure of earning more money and live in greater comfort was an added incentive.

The trend continues unabated even during the ongoing war in Ukraine, but the steady exodus of war-ravaged Ukrainians to neighbouring Poland, Germany and other countries had made emigration more difficult for Pakistanis, Bangladeshis and Sri Lankans . The same was true of thousands of disgruntled/oppressed Afghans, Syrians, Lebanese and Iranians, too.

The author Mr Nazir Bhatti suggests Pakistani Christians could now consider India as a safe haven where they could stay permanently — unless they wanted to move on to Europe or America later.

He stated, ‘The Narendra Modi government in India have provided unique opportunity for true refugees of the region to settle in India under the citizen(ship) law who may be unable to march to Western countries…. It is also very important to make India a safe country for peace and prosperity to stop Muslim terrorism …. Pakistani Christians with sound economic background who suffered from blasphemy laws and life threats from the Muslim majority found refuge in Thailand, Sri Lanka and other Southeast Asian countries, but faced arrests and jails, as they have no international treaties of UN. … Now Christians from Pakistan can go to India and stay for migration to the West.’

He raised a further point by pointing to India’s respectable image as a functioning democracy and its economic progress, in contrast to the situation of Pakistan, Afghanistan or Bangladesh. Citizens from Muslim countries went to India and some of them made use of its liberal laws to spread terrorism there, he alleged.

According to Mr Bhatti, in most Islamic countries, non Muslims could not aspire for high official posts or recognition, because of their religious background. In Pakistan the minority Commission was headed by Muslims. Muslim judges routinely delivered judgments on marriages/divorce proceedings among Christians, without reference to Christian norms or consultations with local Church authorities on religion-specific sensitive matters!

In India any number of people from non Hindu communities had made their mark in various fields, receiving the highest honour, awards and appreciation from Indians. The minority commissions and other similar watchdog bodies also wielded considerable power and influence, he added.

While his views have aroused some local interest among Kolkata-based analysts, there is a muted apprehension as to whether he had not stepped over the line in dealing with the situation in Pakistan! (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In Tripura, following its recent victory in the Assembly elections, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost no time to reach out to the tribal Tipra Motha (TP) outfit to address the sensitive issue of securing the long term future of indigenous people. As a first step, the Union Government decided to appoint an Interlocutor to work towards a ‘constitutional solution’ for the problems faced by the tribespeople in the state.

Analysing the move, Northeast-based observers said that developments in Tripura indicated that the overall pattern of centre/state relationship would continue. In broad terms, sub- regional political aspirations had merged with the larger objectives of bigger national parties in the long run in most states in the region. This process usually involved a phase of political partnership/accommodation for some years, between leading regional parties and the BJP or Congress as the ‘national’ party.

Over the years, the regional parties came to resemble the so-called ‘national’ parties in outlook and objectives, as they became more engaged in the process of nation-building and in developing their’ home’ states. Their systematic participation in general elections and the assured allocations of resources provided by India’s growing economy had also served to quell extremist/secessionist sentiments during the past decades.

TM’s dynamic leader Mr Pradyot Manikya Debbarma did not seem upset as he announced the centre’s decision to have an interlocutor, to mediapersons following a meeting at Agartala. Top BJP leaders including Mr Shah, Tripura Chief Minister Dr Manik Saha, All India President Mr J.P. Nadda and leading BJP leader in the Northeast, Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma Assam Chief Minister were present.

Earlier, BJP leaders shortly after winning the state elections narrowly, had indicated that they had never endorsed the TM’s original pre-poll demand — the creation of a new tribal state with a bigger area . There had been several rounds of talks between the TM and the BJP at Agartala and Delhi prior to the polls.

However both sides had then focused on the possibility of working out an alliance, as the outcome of the polls seemed to hang in the balance. While not conceding the demand for a new state, the BJP had promised to continue its dialogue with the TM regarding the future of indigenous tribespeople.

While the TM has failed to emerge as the biggest party in the polls and unable also to elicit any positive response from other major parties like the CPI(M) or Congress on its basic demand for new statehood, it has still become a force to reckon with. As a new political mouthpiece of aspirant tribal sentiments, its demands to secure a better economic deal for the indigenous people can no longer be ignored at any level.

As for the performance of the so-described national parties themselves, neither the BJP nor Congress had much reason to celebrate. True, the BJP managed to win again, but its vote share had dropped considerably. Enjoying a wafer-thin majority in the 60-strong house, it would be critically dependant on support from other parties like the TM on an issue-to-issue basis.

The Central BJP had spared no efforts to ensure a win in Tripura, with major leaders like Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi and Home Minister Mr Amit Shah, and leaders like Mr J P Nadda and Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma virtually camping at Agartala for days on end. Scores of other Central Ministers too had participated in the campaign.

The party was confident that the centre’s liberal financial allotments and other help to Tripura would ensure a comfortable victory. All possible assistance was made available to Tripura to improve its infrastructure, upgrade its aviation, roadways and Railways development schemes. Special attention was given to improve its trade//business/transport linkages with neighbouring Bangladesh. The eventual outcome which saw the state BJP barely scraping through, brought little cheer within the party.

There was noticeably a lack of spontaneous jubilation at BJP programmes after the results were declared, as Mr Modi did not stay too long in the state capital. There was some delay in announcing the name of the new chief Minister, with some speculation that Ms Protima Bhaumik, a Union Minister, was also being considered as a likely CM prospect. Eventually incumbent CM Dr Saha got the official nod, while Ms Bhaumik resigned from the Assembly seat she had just won, presumably to resume her duties in Delhi.

The results at one level, also confirmed that the allegations made against the ruling saffron party by the CPI(M) and Congress were substantially correct. The electorate too, had not totally turned its back on the opposition parties, while the BJP enjoyed better luck at the polls. The fact that the votes were divided three ways, also helped the BJP.

As for the Trinamool Congress (TMC), the party’s campaign was marked by much sound and fury provided jointly by Ms Mamata Banerjee and her nephew Abhishek Banerjee MP, but achieved nothing!

As post-elections developments featuring renewed political violence confirmed, the opposition, with the exception of the TM, must have been subjected to pre-poll intimidation and violence, not to mention facing targeted police oppression, between 2018 and 2023. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

After a tense truce, the war of words between American liberal lobbyists and the Bangladeshi ruling establishment over the Nobel laureate economist Mohammad Yunus has returned in full fury. 50 Dhaka-based thinkers have strongly countered a recent statement issued in a leading American daily in favour of Dr. Yunus, calling it a blatant interference in the internal affairs of Bangladesh.

In a joint statement a few days ago,40 prominent US-based liberal citizens and thinkers had  strongly urged upon the ruling Awami League government to stop harassing Dr. Yunus from carrying out his activities relating to poverty alleviation/economic empowerment of the poor. They expressed their concern over what they perceived as persistent hostility and opposition of the ruling party in Bangladesh towards Dr. Yunus and his public welfare-related work.

The famous Grameen Bank (GB) set up by Dr. Yunus, whom many regard as the founder of the pro-poor microfinance (MF) system of economic assistance, had helped millions of people conquer poverty in Bangladesh. Many of the GB’s Bangladeshi projects have been replicated by major MF institutions in India, and several countries in South and South East Asia.

Such a high-profile wrangle involving a practicing Nobel laureate economist and a popular ruling political party in a developing country, originates from what has gradually turned into a clash of personalities. Dr Yunus has for his bête noire none other than Ms.Sheikh Hasina Wazed, the powerful incumbent Prime Minister of Bangladesh.

Dhaka-based officials would find it hard to dismiss the broad charge levelled by 40 US-based liberal thinkers against the Bangladesh government through an advertisement in a major daily: Dr. Yunus has indeed been officially pulled up at different times by the government over issues relating to the functioning of the GB. His administrative powers and overall control over the bank  have been curtailed over the years over what critics of the Government see as mere ‘technicalities’.

For the ruling Awami League, a far more serious charge against Dr. Yunus is his alleged  involvement in the campaign against corruption on part of the administration, prior to the construction of the game-changing Padma bridge project. Serious allegations of bribe-taking and influencing procedures of tender allotment for the massive project had been made in public, which had led to the World Bank withholding its promised assistance.

Angered by developments, PM Hasina Wazed had ordered an official inquiry, but the alleged corruption could not be proved. Meanwhile, the project was delayed and building costs rose sharply. PM Hasina Wazed had a point to prove vis-à-vis the West, and the World Bank in particular.

She refused all Western financial assistance and had the road/rail bridge, one of the biggest in Asia, built with the country’s own resources. Several Chinese companies helped with the construction instead, driving home a political point: Bangladesh could take major decisions to decide its own economic destiny, without depending on the West.

A subtext to these developments was the critical role played by Dr. Yunus and his powerful backers in the Western financial establishment, including in organisations like the World Bank (WB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB), the International Monetary Fund (IMF), etc. His domestic standing vis-à-vis the ruling Awami League and the Prime Minister, never robust to start with, declined by several notches, not surprisingly.

Kolkata-based observers enjoying close links with the Awami League leadership point to the abiding hostility of top Democrat politicians in the US, including Mrs. Hilary Clinton in particular, towards the present Bangladeshi establishment. According to Dhaka-based media reports, Mrs. Clinton and PM Hasina Wazed have never had a comfortable working relationship. And included among major issues they differed on was the role of Dr. Yunus in matters relating to Bangladesh’s economic development.

There have been suggestions that the Awami League leadership was wary of the depth of Dr. Yunus’s backing among Western financial authorities. What might have queered the pitch for the economist was his suspected involvement in the country’s political process.

Some years ago, certain human rights groups and leading Bangladeshi citizens, fed up with the never-ending rivalries and violence between the Awami League and the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), had floated the idea of a new independent third front to contest general elections in the country. Dr. Yunus, as the leading economist of the country, would be the face of the new outfit, it was argued.

Unfortunately, for Dr. Yunus, the proposal did not win much support. Leaders of both the Awami League and the BNP were wary of the call for a so-called independent third front. They feared that Dr. Yunus, given his positive international image and significant contributions to the Bangladeshi economy, would in time emerge as a serious contender for power at the highest level. This would help neither the League nor the BNP.

Again, there was no doubt among common people in Bangladesh that the Western bloc of countries would strongly support any political outfit in which the economist would be an important leader. This would seriously increase the possibility of direct or indirect interference in the political developments within Bangladesh, which could prove disastrous in the long run.

Given such a long, bitterly contentious backdrop to the patently uneasy relationship between Dr. Yunus and the Awami League, the latest round of statements made by Western and Bangladeshi intellectuals and public thinkers about his exact status, adds one more volatile chapter within a bitterly-contested ongoing political narrative war, whose end has not yet come. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

For some time now, the ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) in Bengal has been accused by other opposition parties of effectively helping the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) through its decisions, while attacking it verbally. Last week, two seemingly contradictory steps taken by the TMC supremo Mamata Banerjee further strengthened such allegations. In the process, the present initiative launched by other parties to forge a united common front against the BJP, has begun to look unconvincing.

The facts speak for themselves. On March 2, poll results in various states were announced. The thumping defeat of the TMC candidate by nearly 23,000 votes at Sagardighi Assembly seat by-election to a Congress candidate shocked the ruling party in Bengal. The TMC had won at Sagardighi in the Muslim-majority Murshidabad by nearly 50,000 votes in 2018. At Sagardighi, around 64% of the electorate was Muslim. The INC had contested the seat in alliance with the Left Front.

Putting on a brave face Chief Minister Ms Mamata Banerjee declared then and there from Kolkata, the ‘TMC would not align itself with any party in the coming elections’(presumably referring to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls). It would align with ‘the people’, she said, without further explanation. The CPI(M), Congress and the BJP had ditched political principles to spite the TMC at Sagardighi. Never mind, the TMC would take on all three parties alone and defeat them heavily, she asserted.

Yet only a couple of days later, Ms Banerjee was among the leading signatories in a letter sent to the Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi by nine opposition parties. Signing as the leader of the AITC (All India Trinamool Congress), she joined other leaders in urging upon Mr. Modi to stop investigating agencies like the Enforcement Directorate(ED) and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) from harassing opposition leaders! The letter was written to protest the recent arrest of Mr. Manish Sisodia, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) leader and Minister of Delhi, by the CBI on corruption charges.

Clearly, TMC leaders contrary to Ms Banerjee’s dramatic announcement had not ruled out joining other parties in common anti-BJP initiatives. But the move, coming so soon after their supremo’s announcing her decision to ‘go it alone’, confused most observers as well as TMC loyalists

Could it be that Ms Banerjee’s ‘Akla Chalo re’ slogan found no support within the TMC? Had Mr Abhishek Banerjee the TMC General Secretary somehow persuaded the majority of TMC leaders to function as before in coordination with other opposition parties?

Significantly, the TMC’s recent tactic of not co–operating with the INC even at the cost of weakening any anti-BJP action, remained in place. The opposition remained divided. No representative of the biggest national opposition party, Congress, was named in the letter to the Prime Minister. This fuelled speculation in Kolkata whether, regardless of the Bengal Chief Minister’s words on March 2, the TMC had lobbied as in the past among other parties to keep the INC out.

TMC insiders admitted in Kolkata that fortunes of the INC had somewhat improved after the partial success of the Bharat Jodo Yatra carried out by Mr. Rahul Gandhi. As the INC tried to increase its mass contact, in some areas people came forward spontaneously to express their interest in major party programmes. They were keen to see more of Mr Gandhi, and other leaders like Mr Jairam Ramesh, Mr M. Kharge, Mr P. Chidambaram and Mrs Priyanka Vadra, taking on the BJP more actively. They also expressed their disillusionment over the BJP’s lacklustre performance during the last 2/3 years and its indifference to the economic hardships among commoners.

In contrast, the TMC’s own miserable performance could not be concealed, not just in Bengal .Party leader Madan Mitra publicly asked for an explanation as to why the TMC should lose a seat it had won by over 50,000 votes in 2018, lose so heavily in 2023 ? There were also mutterings among other Bengal leaders and workers as to why the high profile expensive campaigning carried out in Tripura and Meghalaya failed so abjectly. Both Ms Banerjee and her nephew Abhishek had actively campaigned in both states, apart from taking all major local level decisions.

Clearly the recent relentless opposition campaign targeting major corruption among TMC leaders and scores of arrests made by investigating agencies were beginning to hurt the TMC, some leaders admitted. Whether in the education, public welfare schemes run by centre or the state Government, illegal sand mining, cattle smuggling and other crimes, the involvement of state-level TMC Ministers, MLAs, Civic councillors, panchayat leaders etc had shocked everyone. Corruption involving thousands of cores of rupees and the political nexus involving high police and various departmental officers had been proved beyond doubt.

The party’s recent forays in Tripura and Meghalaya were in part intended to divert public attention from the humongous corruption carried out by Bengal TMC leaders, covered widely in the national media as well. Such negative media coverage had lowered the party’s prestige and standing among other opposition parties and common people in many areas, leaders admitted, while not willing to be quoted.

’It would have helped our cause if the TMC had won a few seats in both Tripura and Meghalaya, but the final results were nothing short of a political disaster. Currently, our position is weaker than before in Bengal, as the opposition parties are getting stronger, and we have no following in other states either,’ a senior leader said.

Therefore, he explained it was natural for the party to send out what might seem to be confusing signals to other parties and common people, as the TMC was indeed groping for a way out of the crisis it found itself in.

In Tripura, state –based TMC leaders lost no time to declare publicly that they had not really been consulted all through the pre-poll campaign, as Kolkata-based leaders dominated the preparations! Even in Meghalaya, followers of veteran state leader, former Chief Minister Mr Mukul Sangma expressed their disillusionment with the TMC leadership, according to state media reports.

There can be no denying that the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC is currently engaged an in existential struggle, even as senior party leaders pretend in their public appearances that it’s very much ‘business as usual . The TMC has the organizational capability to make amends like it did after the big losses in 2019 Lok Sabha polls. Supporters of Abhishek Banerjee say that the party will do the course correction and it will ensure that the TMC will be back to its winning ways in the coming panchayat elections in April/ May this year. (IPA Service)

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By Dr. Gyan Pathak

Congress winning three Vidhan Sabha Constituencies and the BJP and its ally winning two in the byelections held for five seats in four states’ legislative assemblies –Maharashtra, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Tamil Nadu – is defeat a clear indication of the Congress emerging stronger vis-à-vis the BJP, and thereby UPA is gaining upper hand over the NDA.

The most spectacular win of the Congress came from Kasab Peth Vidhan Sabha Constituency which it wrested from the BJP. INC’s Dhangekar Ravindra Hemraj won Kasba Peth by defeating BJP’s Hemant Narayan Rasane by a margin of 10,915 votes.

It is important for two reasons – first, Maharashtra is presently ruled by Shinde faction that split the Shiv Sena led by Uddhav Thackeray and is in power with the help of BJP. Secondly, the constituency has been BJP’s stronghold in the district.

In the 2019 Vidhan Sabha election BJP had polled 75,492 votes (50.3 per cent) and won the seat while the Congress was able to bag only 47,296 votes (31.52 per cent). Congress polled 73,309 votes (52.98 per cent) this time while the BJP polled 62,394 votes (45.09 per cent). The reversal of political fortune on this seat is significant not only on account of BJP’s loss of about five per cent of support base, but also due to a very encouraging gain to the Congress about 22 per cent of votes.

It indicates that people in the Pune district and the reason are very unhappy with the ruling combine which shows the anti-incumbency as well as voters becoming more supportive to the Congress and the UPA.

Though the BJP won the byelection of Chinchwad Vidhan Sabha Constituency where Ashwini Laxman Jagtap of BJP defeated NCP candidate Vitthal alias Nana Kate by a margin of 36,168 votes, the result clearly shows the BJP’s decline and UPA’s rise. BJP polled 1,35,603 votes (47.23 per cent) as against the NCP’s 99,435 (34.63 per cent). BJP had polled 1,50,723 votes (54.17 per cent) in the 2019 Vidhan Sabha Election, against an Independent candidate Kalate Rahul Tanaji who had polled 1,12,225 votes (40.34 per cent).Tanaji was Shiv Sena Candidate in 2014 Vidhan Sabha Election and had polled23.29 per cent of votes while NCP had polled 15.61per cent and INC 3.17 per cent.

All these indicate that the split in Shiv Sena could not effect any shift in its support base to the ruling Shinde faction, while BJP’s support base has declined. The rise in NCP votes from 15.61 per cent in 2014 to 34.63 per cent in 2023 is a significant achievement to the party and the Maha Vikas Agadi or the UPA though NCP lost the bypoll. This constituency is also in Pune district, and hence both the byelection results reflect BJP’s or NDA’s dwindling political fortune in this reason that would have an impact on Maharashtra politics.

The byelection in Ramgarh Vidhan Sabha in Jharkhand Sunita Choudhary of AJSU Party won by defeating INC candidate Bajrang Mahto by a margin of 21970 votes. It is a significant loss of INC which held this seat. AJSU polled 1,15,669 votes (50.67 per cent) as against INC’s 93,699 votes (41.05 per cent). AJSU is a BJP ally, while the INC is in the ruling Mahagathbandhan led by JMM, and hence, prima facie, it looks like Congress and UPA has been weakened in this state after the Vidhan Sabha Election of 2019. However, close look at the situation reveals that BJP and AJSU had fought 2019 separately bagging 14.26 and 31.86 per cent (total 46.12 per cent). It means the NDA had only marginally improved. On the other hand INC had voted 44.7 per cent of votes that has marginally declined to 41.05 per cent this time. The byelection result suggest that INC and Mahagathbandhan in Jharkhand needs more coordinated efforts to take on BJP and NDA.

In Tamil Nadu, byelection was held in Erode East Vidhan Sabha constituency, where INC’s E.V.K.S. Elangovan defeated AIADMK’s K.S Thennarasu by a huge margin of 66233 votes. Congress candidate was backed by the ruling DMK, which indicate the their future alliance to successfully take on the BJP in the Lok Sabha Election 2024. It also indicate the improving acceptability and relationship of the Congress vis-à-vis the regional political party.

After the election result was out, the Chief Minister and DMK leader M K Stalin has said it a “historic and grand win”. He also said that the ground was being prepared for an even bigger victory of the DMK-led Secular Progressive Alliance (SPA) in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.

In Sagardighi Vidhan Sabha byelection in West Bengal INC’s Bayron Biswas won the seat by defeating Debashish Banerjee of TMC by a margin of 22986 votes. It was a shocker to the ruling TMC since it was held by the party. INC polled 87,667 votes (47.35 per cent) as against TMC’s 64,681 (34.94 per cent).

It must be noted that in 2021 elections INC had polled only 19.45 per cent of votes as against TMC’s 50.95 per cent. The byelection result has thus revealed a sharp fall of TMC and rise on INC.

BJP has been trying to make its foothold in West Bengal for quite some time. However, the byelection result has dampened their hope. BJP had bagged 24.08 per cent of votes in 2021 on this seat but now could bag only 13.94 per cent of votes.

The byelection in Lumla Vidhan Sabha constituency in Arunachal Pradesh was declared unopposed in favour of the BJP candidate Mayralborn Syiem. Does it reflect BJP’s increasing clout in the North East? No, because, North East voters and parties are prone to align with any political party ruling in the Centre, and for 9 years, it is advantage BJP. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

There has been no negative impact in Bangladesh of recent disclosures made by the short seller US-based Hindenburg Research group, about an alleged stock market manipulation by the Adani group: A Bangladeshi Minister has confirmed that Bangladesh will receive its first supply of 750 Megawatts from an Adani-built power plant at Godda, Jharkhand, from March this year, on schedule.

This follows an earlier agreement between the Adani-owned company and Bangladesh government, ensuring the regular supply from India to Bangladesh of around 1500 MW of power daily. The Adanis are about to complete the construction of two plants of 750 MWs capacity each in Jharkhand, specifically for exporting power to Bangladesh at suitable market rates, according to sources in Dhaka. The suppliers have also built a dedicated transmission line to ensure uninterrupted energy flow from India into Bangladesh.

While supply from the first unit scheduled to begin from March, the second 750 MW unit was expected to go functional from April, Bangladesh power minister Hamid said. With such volumes of increased supply available and more generation from existing units in Bangladesh, he assured Bangladeshi consumers and industries that there was no reason to panic. Load shedding would be gradually phased out and the economic outlook would improve.

There had been media speculation in both countries as to whether the project would start on schedule, following the controversy generated by the startling disclosures made by Hindenburg experts. A section of Bangladeshi officials connected with the project, reportedly sought fresh clarification on some provisions in the agreement. This was seen as natural thanks to the worldwide adverse fallout generated about the Adanis by the Hindenburg report.  Strong allegations of market manipulation and the artificial inflation of the share values of their companies were made against the Adanis

About the time Bangladeshi Power Minister Nasrul Hamid was confirming the status of the project, in Delhi an Indian Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman indicated that GOI had no information about the status of the project. An agreement had been worked out between the Bangladesh Government and an Indian company. So far as GOI was concerned, there was no official involvement in the project. He was responding to a query from mediapersons regarding the fate of the project and the initial concerns reported from Dhaka.

There had followed much public speculation regarding the reported net loss of over $120 billion affecting various shareholders in the Adani-owned companies, whose shares declined sharply in value for several days. France replaced India as the world’s fifth largest economy, as the latter slipped a place and was only narrowly ahead of the UK at number 7, as the humongous Adani-owned assets declined in value. The third position enjoyed by the Adanis in the Forbes list of richest world entrepreneurs was also lost.

The import of power from Indian companies has been a feature of efforts made in recent times by the Bangladesh Government to reduce long sells of load shedding. Despite an increase in local power production, Bangladesh found it difficult to increase generation on account of the high rise in the prices of all varieties of fuel — crude oil, gas or LNG — in the wake of the war in Ukraine.

The country expects a demand for minimum 25,000 MWs daily in a year or two, while its internal generation from all sources remains well below that level. Bangladesh has worked out arrangements with Indian and Nepalese Governments as well as private companies to secure a steady supply of power in the immediate future.

Ignoring concerns over environmental pollution and issues related to global warming, GOB has recently resumed the use of coal as before. However, stocks of coal were low and needed replenishing, necessitating urgent supplies from Indonesia and other countries.

Officials told Dhaka-based media that because of winter, the demand for power had reduced somewhat, but the situation would change for the worse as spring was knocking on the door, and temperatures would rise gradually. GOB had little choice but to launch an all out drive to increase generation substantially before the onset of summer. All concerned staff and officials in the Power department had instructions to work on a war footing to ensure the maximum relief possible for the long suffering industrial sector as well as common people.

Hopefully, other improvements in the working of the power sector were round the corner, officials said. From June , Bangladesh would receive a direct supply of diesel from India, following the completion/commissioning of the 130 kmg long pipeline from Numaligarh in India to Bangladesh via Siliguri.  And, a new gas bearing well with significant reserves had been struck at Bhola, which would enable the country to meet its own gas requirements for at least next 11 years and longer, according to present estimates. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In Tripura, with only 48 hours before the scheduled Assembly polls on February 16, the state Congress unit has been left to fend for itself by the party high command in carrying out its pre poll campaign. Despite earlier assurances by local Congress leaders, neither Mr Rahul Gandhi nor his sister Priyanka or other senior leaders, bothered to visit the state, ignoring frantic requests from the state leaders.

Their apparent lack of interest in seriously contesting Assembly-level elections have come as a major shock to hard-core party supporters/followers  and not only in Tripura , Northeast-based media reports now suggest top Congress leaders may find it difficult to lead the party’s campaign for the Meghalaya and Nagaland elections scheduled for Feb 27 also. The reason: the long awaited Congress Plenary Session at Raipur will be held around then.

State Congress leaders and supporters have expressed deep disappointment to media persons over the indifference of National-stature leaders towards the Northeast region as a whole. Political analysts too find the failure of top Congress leaders to provide much needed material support and encouragement to their state units engaged in a difficult political battle, no less puzzling.

Senior state Congress leaders pointed out that even 10/15 years ago, the Northeast, along with certain pockets of Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, was generally regarded as relatively ‘safe territory’ for the party in terms of potential electoral support. The dominant Christian population in some states always voted for the Congress in large numbers. Even aspirant tribal youths had no problems supporting Congress Party’s secular ideals or the modern economic policies pursued by the Congress government.

Tripura Congress has suffered major desertions in recent times as some supporters and district-based leaders joined the Trinamool Congress (TMC) or the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party(BJP) .Apparently they sought to retain minimal political relevance in the rapidly changing political scenario. Even the most prominent state party leader, the veteran Mr. Sudip Roy Burman had switched over to both the TMC and the BJP before achieving a rare, triumphant return to his former party.

But it remains to be seen whether even his heroic example in winning from an apparently hopeless situation, swimming against the current as it were, will bring in many votes this time.  Most observers agree that this was a critically important time for the party headquarters to help the state party, currently fighting for its survival in a desperately difficult situation.

Naturally the ruling BJP and the TMC have mercilessly ridiculed the demoralised Congress leaders and their ever dwindling support in their campaign. The BJP particularly has targeted Mr. Rahul Gandhi, alleging that he clearly has no stomach for a hard electoral battle. It was out of the question for him to take on the mantle of a national-level leaders, never mind his ‘Bharat Jodo yatra’. No one really saw him as a serious challenger to Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi, who actively participated in the Tripura campaign despite his party ruling both there and at the Centre.

The TMC too questioned the commitment of major Congress leaders in the Northeast Assembly polls, adding that they had written themselves off!

Reports reaching from Agartala suggest that the leaders of CPIM)-led Left Front , as pre-election alliance partners of the Congress are upset over the lukewarm efforts put up so far by the state Congress. Even during the seat adjustments talks, matters had not been settled agreeably. Initially, the LF had left 13 out of 60 seats for Congress to contest. However, after a formal announcement had been made, the party went back and put up four additional candidates, declaring that the contests would be ‘friendly’ and not affect the agreed seat adjustment!

Most media analysts strongly criticised the insistence shown by Tripura Congress in asking for so many seats, which it had no means of winning. It even asked for seats where its candidates in 2018 won only 400 or so votes, while the BJP and the Left candidates had won in excess of 13/14,000 votes!

Naturally such moves, clearly made by Congress leaders in order to avoid a ruinous pre-election split among party ranks, angered and embarrassed Left leaders. As things stand , the CPI(M) still remains the most organised and active political force in Tripura to take on the BJP’s challenge, despite its loss in 2018 elections.

Not surprisingly, the bulk of  physical side of the campaigning has been carried out by the LF so far, for both Congress and LF candidates. In terms of providing either manpower or material support, the local Congress has not done very well, lacking a dependable organizational base. The state unit itself, as stated before, has been left in the lurch by its central leaders.

It was also generally agreed that in comparison with the more determined Left cadres, the average Congress campaigner was not hard working enough. The LF would also make an all out effort to involve as many supporters/activists as possible in poll-related work on election day. The same could not be said for Congress and its supporters, most people felt. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Pre-poll campaigning has reached its peak in Tripura, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi visiting twice during the last three days for addressing election meetings in the state and the Home Minister Amit Shah holding road shows and meetings on February 6 and 7 and again on February 12. It was the biggest mobilization of the BJP of its leaders for helping the Party retain power for the second time beating the challenge of the Left- Congress alliance and the tribal outfit Tipra Motha.

Other major contending parties like the CPIM), Congress and the Trinamool Congress have also deputed their top leaders in the fray , with only three days left for the day of polling on February 16. They include Mr Sitaram Yechury, CPI(M) General Secretary, Ms Mamata Banerjee, West Bengal Chief Minister and Mr Abhishek Banerjee, General Secretary of the Trinamool Congress.

State Congress leaders told Tripura-based media persons that party President Mr. Mallikarjun Kharge, Mr Rahul Gandhi and Mrs Priyanka Gandhi were expected to join the campaign.

With strong new tribal entrant party Tipra Motha contesting, observers expect the elections in 2023 to be a three-cornered fight, marking a departure from the past. The TM which unlike other tribal outfits like the more established IPFT is not part of any pre poll alliance, seems destined to play the kingmaker’s role in the post poll scenario, if there is a hung assembly.

Despite preliminary talks with both the ruling BJP and the opposition alliance of the CPIM()-led Left Front and Congress, the TM’s insistence on the creation of a larger tribal state prevented a larger pre-election understanding. But it also left the TM with the option of supporting either the BJP or the LF/Congress combine after the results are announced. No doubt there would be some hard bargaining involving all three parties/groups once the results are announced on March 2.

Despite a sustained energetic campaign launched by the TMC, kickstarted by Ms Banerjee and state leaders visiting from West Bengal to maintain the momentum, observers do not see it as an effective challenger in the polls yet. Most observers are convinced that but for major upsets, its success would not be at par with the other contending groups/parties.

As for the BJP, regardless of its strong campaign against what its top leaders including the Prime Minister describe as the propagation of a ‘freebies’ culture among voters by opposition parties, the saffron brigade could not live up to its own stand. The ruling party as it braces for the polls has ended up offering , among other items, a Rs 5 meal for people, free smartphones for students and free scooties for scholarship winning boys and girls These, in addition to more generous official loan/ insurance facilities for the electorate.

Naturally the party faces much flak from its opponents for its ‘retreat’, especially in the context of Mr Modi’s strong condemnation of the opposition. The TMC was targeted for making irresponsibly reckless populist promises which ended up hurting the national economy. Conservative economists and planners, had already denounced such electoral tactics as being ‘opportunistic’, a part of the current win-at-any-cost culture and the devil take the hindmost….

They cited the recent example of how Sri Lanka’s economy unravelled in the post covid period, in the absence of coherent economic policies in a difficult situation.

In Tripura, as might be expected, it has been the TMC to introduce the cult of freebies a la West Bengal. The TMC leaders make no bones about insisting that if elected their party would introduce welfare schemes similar to those in Bengal, in the Northeast as well. People would enjoy cost-free access to rations, medical treatment and education, along with a general Rs 1000 monthly allowance for every woman in the state!

Many surveys in west Bengal have already exposed how only a small part of the population actually enjoy such benefits, given the state’s wretched economic performance. But a popular obsession over promised freebies seemingly carries a stronger emotional appeal among the electorate’

For all their derision and disgust about such moves, parties opposing the TMC have not been able to ignore totally the electoral impact of such gifts, analysing the remarkable run of TMC’s election victories in West Bengal. Reports from Agartala suggest that the state BJP was divided on the issue, as some leaders felt it would have been better not to play the TMC’s game, as it were, by overstressing the dole-style public welfare side of their future political programmes.

Far more than the TMC, it has been the BJP that has been singled by its past failures to live up to tall pre-election promises and slogans. The party still faces scathing attacks from its critics and opposition parties for its pre-poll slogans promising 20 million new jobs annually or depositing Rs 15 lakhs to every bank account in India following recovery of Indian money illegally salted away abroad!

Nevertheless, in 2023, the BJP has taken no chance and decided to play safe, even appearing to follow the TMC’s example in the process.

In comparison, it is not surprising to find the LF/Congress combine not going in for such gimmicks in their pre-poll statements. The restoration of democracy, better governance, economic relief for hard-pressed peasants and steadily shrinking organised labour, are issues that dominate their discourse, as usual.

While the responsibility implicit in such an approach remains unexceptionable, observers wonder whether the rank and file among younger and hard pressed older votes, struggling to make both ends meet, would respond positively to such moves.

Apart from Mr. Modi, Mr Amit Shah, Mr. Himanta Biswa Sarma and Mr J.P. Nadda have already visited Tripura and participated in the BJP programmes. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have taken Tripura as the prestige battle as this is the only state out of the three states going to polls in the first phase this year in the North East where the BJP has the potential to come to power and rule on its own. The BJP leadership can not afford to start as a loser in the first phase of assembly polls. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

With only a few days left for the Tripura Assembly polls, major parties have continued their efforts to work out pre-poll alliances. So far, only the CPI(M) and Congress are in the process of finalising a joint pre-poll campaign , having agreed to contest the elections in alliance, in an effort to consolidate secular and progressive forces in Tripura. Against the ruling BJP.

Other than that, no alliance has yet emerged among different contesting outfits and groups, while negotiations continue.

For all parties contesting the 2023 elections, the new tribal outfit Tipra Motha(TM) remains the most sought after alliance partner. However, a pre- conditions laid down by TM leader Mr Pradyot Manikya Debbarman has put a spanner in the works for most parties.

Mr Debbarman has called upon aspirant political partners seeking a pre-poll understanding with the TM to announce their advance support and commitment for the proposed formation of a separate tribal state. He has also made it clear driving a hard bargain, that under no circumstances will he abandon the demand for a new state.

Not even the high profile Assam Chief Minister Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma was able to win any concessions from Mr Debbarman during a recent meeting they had in Delhi. Assam-based media reports said that when queried by mediapersons, Mr Sarma sought to minimise the significance of their conversation, presumably to underplay the BJP’s failure to persuade the TM to ally with the it.

Decisions on such matters in Tripura, Mr Sarma clarified, were usually taken by a high power committee. Observers found Sarma’s explanation intriguing — it being common knowledge that he was the BJP’s foremost leader in the entire Northeast region , whose word was final on most issues.

The Trinamool Congress (TMC) faced no better in its bid to work out a pre-poll arrangement with the TM. TMC insiders admitted that top leaders in the party’s Kolkata headquarters were ‘very keen ‘ to work out a ‘special relationship ‘ with the TM. They had instructed their Tripura leadership to examine the possibilities, but to no avail.

More than anything else, Mr Debbarman’s pre-condition calling for advance support/commitment from contesting parties on the separate state issue, effectively queered the pitch for further dialogue, said observers.

A major reason was the lack of specific details regarding the TM’s proposal for a new territory. Just how much area was the TM looking for and in which parts of Tripura ? No maps had been circulated. TM leaders had stated that no territory would be sought from neighbouring states, but there was no clarity as to how its proposal would be carried out within Tripura itself.

Given this backdrop, how could other parties be expected to announce any kind of endorsement, let alone support or commitment, for a new state?

The TM took yet another step towards consolidating the bulk of tribal votes by appealing to leaders of the rival tribal outfit IPFT to join it, to prevent any split among tribal voters on polling day on February 16. As it is, 20 out of 60 seats in the state Assembly are reserved for tribals.

With the TM expected to sweep most of these seats, non tribal parties such as the BJP, the TMC, Left/Congress etc might find it difficult to reach adequate numbers on their own. The three way split among non tribal votes may well send these parties to the opposition benches, for the first time in post independent Tripura.

In part the Left/Congress alliance seeks in its own limited way to reduce the extent of a vote split within the secular camp of voters as far as possible. However, major problems for the alliance are about to begin.

Most other parties have not been impressed by the decision taken by the CPI(M) and Congress to come together.

To begin with, they point to the failure of similar experiments in West Bengal where neither the Left parties nor Congress succeeded in posing a challenge to the ruling TMC. Congress leaders, supporters and activists, whether in Bengal or Tripura, had been subject to ruthless repression by ruling Left cadres until recently.

While the more organised pro left voters could support a jointly backed candidate, the same could not be said for pro Congress voters. In fact experience had shown that even the pre poll campaigning had suffered in many areas in Bengal, because of’ too many unpleasant incidents’ in the distant past.

Who could say that the same would not happen in Tripura?

In fact even Mr, Debbarman has referred to this problem while commenting on the present somewhat uneasy bonhomie between the Left and Congress.

If IPFT leaders respond to his appeal to work out new ties with the TM and help it present a strong united tribal front against other parties, a new political chapter would have to be written about Tripura after March 2. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

As pre-poll campaigning heats up for  the coming Assembly polls in Tripura and Meghalaya, people of Nagaland are somewhat disappointed that the greater ’political solution ‘ for the state remains unsettled.  State-based regional parties as well as local Congress leaders acknowledge that their participation in the polls may not be whole-hearted.

Nagaland along with Meghalaya goes to polls on February 27 while the Tripura Assembly election will be held on February 16. The outcome would be announced on March 2.The two biggest national parties, BJP and Congress, are contesting the polls in all three states.

In 2023, the pre pol situation is somewhat different in Tripura and Meghalaya in comparison with 2018.  West Bengal-based Trinamool Congress (TMC) is putting up candidates in Tripura and Meghalaya, posing as a challenger of some strength. Its massive defeat in the Tripura civic polls has not apparently dampened the spirit of its leaders and supporters.

For the BJP, campaigning has got more difficult in Meghalaya, where its major ruling coalition partner the National Peoples’ Party (NPP) has announced its decision to go solo , even as preparations got under way. The BJP won only two seats out of 60 in 2018 assembly polls, but in alliance with the NPP shared political power, increasing its overall strength to 6, has been caught unawares.

State BJP leaders have put on a brave face on the developments and signalled their intent to contest all seats if possible. State party President Mr Mawrie and other leaders expected the saffron party to win around 15/16 seats in Tura and areas adjacent to Shillong. But the political observers do not agree with BJP’s estimate. They feel that BJP on its own will be limited to a tiny figure

A general perception among Christians and Muslims in the northeastern states of the BJP as a hardline pro-Hindutva force remains a major factor in both Meghalaya and Nagaland. Recent developments in Assam where especially Muslim minorities have been victims of official bulldozer-aided demolition schemes, have set alarm bells ringing among sections of people in other states. The BJP’s opposition to beef-eating too, remains a sore point among Christians in Nagaland and Meghalaya.

As if these were not off-putting enough, the general distrust and concern among people over the BJPs’ CA Act and its stress on the NRC exercise to be implemented in the NE region, are also major sticking points in the BJP’s campaign. Both the botched-up Assam NRC operation and the CA Act are seen as being discriminatory against minority communities like Muslims and Christians, rightly or wrongly.

The Christian community as a whole has carried out a quiet but sustained. campaign on these issues, supported by a section of Muslims as well. Observers say its divergence on such issues with the BJP led the NPP to ditch its alliance with the BJP.

In Tripura, the BJP is relatively on firmer ground, having won convincingly in 2018pols and cementing its victory with a near total sweep of the civic elections. However, Congress, the CPI(M) and the TMC all accuse the party of having violated norms of democratic functioning and resorting to sheer brute force to subdue all opposition, aided by an inactive police force, to win the civic polls.

As in 2018, political stability and improved law and order are major planks in the BJPs campaign. State party leaders follow the lead provided by Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Mr Amit Shah, in their speeches. Both leaders naturally highlight national issues more than local trends and developments.

Mr Shah referred to the reduction in the overall ambit of political, extremist and other forms of violence in the NE region as a whole in recent years.  This improvement he attributed to the sustained policy initiatives, investments and political programmes launched by the saffron party in a region which had been long neglected by other parties, especially Congress.

Between 2018 and 2023, according to Shah, the level of violence had declined by 42%, many former insurgents surrendered with their arms, stabilising local peace and security.

This had enabled the centre to suspend the use of the controversial AFSPA legislation which opposition parties alleged, curtailed almost all civil rights, by empowering the armed forces/police in absolute terms, said Mr Shah. Also, the launch of major infra related projects from Assam to Tripura had strengthened connectivity, reduced travel time, helped trade and business and generated new jobs.

In opposition, both the CPIM) and Congress pointed to the appalling misrule in Tripura, where corruption and lawlessness had crossed all limits. Farmers, tea plantation workers and Government employees in general had been by high inflation and fuel prices, without getting any relief from the centre or the Tripura Government.

If the BJP is isolated in Meghalaya, the TMC has suffered the same fate in Tripura.

Despite putting in former Bengal Minister Mr Rajib Banerjee as TMC leader-in-residence for Tripura during the last few months, the party could not work out any alliance with either Congress or others opposing the BJP. The TMC had hoped to improve its chances by roping in Ms Sushmita Dev, experienced former Congress leader from Barak valley in Assam to help its efforts in Tripura.

Party supremo Mamata Banerjee, her nephew MP Abhishek Banerjee, have also visited Tripura (as well as Meghalaya) on several occasions, in a bid to rev up the party’s pre poll efforts and put up a strong fight to secure a foothold in the NE region. They employed the expensive expertise of the Prashant Kishor-led IPAC team in the process, leaving nothing to chance.

The TMC made a serious bid to work out an alliance with the strong new entrant in the Tripura polls, the tribal Tipra Motha party led by the popular Mr, Pradyot Manikya Debbarma. The new party just won the tribal autonomous district polls convincingly, defeating the BJPs’ ally in Assembly, the IPFT — this party had win 8 out of 60 seats in the outgoing Assembly. In Tripura 20 seats are reserved for various tribes.

Through a smaller local party a few days ago, a proposal was floated to launch an anti-BJP alliance including the TM, the TMC and others interested in fighting against the BJP including willing Congressmen. However, there was hardly any takers for the initiative. So TMC has decided to fight al the 60 seats alone. A high level meeting was held on January 20 in Kolkata in the presence of Tripura TMC president and it was decided to launch vigorous campaign with the backing of the Bengal leaders.

Latest position is that TIPRA supremo Pradyot Manikya Debbarman had talks with BJP leaders in both Agartala and Delhi and both the parties are working on a draft understanding on the basis of the demands made by TIRA chief about separate Tipraland. Sources say the BJP leaders are assuring more autonomy to the present Tribal Council with additional powers. It is to be seen whether Pradyot agrees to that… If BJP and TIPRA can finally agree that will be a big boost to the saffron party before elections.

Despite its protestations in Meghalaya (but not in Tripura!) that it is not a Bengali-dominated party, the TMC is seen in the region as a whole as an extension of the Bengal-based party — which it is, factually speaking. Its efforts to peddle Bengal-type mass welfare schemes (freebies) like Swasthasathi and others  where women are entitled to get Rs 500 from the state Government, along with free rations and medical treatment in Meghalaya did not go down well.

Outgoing NPP Chief Minister Mr Conrad Sangma personally shot down the TMC’s efforts to highlights its ‘freebies’ culture, pointing to the present financial crisis of West Bengal. Substantiating his arguments with official stats, he pointed out that under the TMC today, every Bengal citizen inherited a personal debt of Rs 60,000-plus to the central government.

West Bengal’s overall indebtedness to the centre exceeded Rs 500,000 crore, from around Rs 180,000 crore in 2011. The major reason for this, said Mr Sangma, was the TMC’s reckless ‘welfare’ schemes which landed the state in a permanent debt trap. Meghalaya would never implement such schemes, he added.

In Nagaland, the biggest party NDPP, which had won over 40 seats out of 60, with BJP on 12, was yet to respond to the announcement of elections. Most parties including Congress said they would have to participate in the polls following the Election Commission’s announcement. Smaller local parties pointed out that the centre had special powers that it could use to declare some kind of agreement/solution to the long standing demand for a ‘frontier Nagaland state’ with special status.

The centre has been engaged in political negotiations with the insurgent organisation NSCN (Muivah group) as well as other Naga groups and association, to declare an autonomous Naga state that would satisfy the aspirations of the tribespeople for maximum political autonomy.

Ruling Chief Minister Mr Rio (NDPP) said the state would participate in the polls as he wished to avoid a Constitutional crisis and avoid a spell of President’s rule. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In Tripura, on the eve of the state assembly polls next month, a fresh development has taken place giving some relief to the ruling BJP which has been struggling to get the support of the tribals to retain power .

The CPI(M) , following its State Committee meeting attended by senior politburo leaders, set the ball rolling , signalling its intent to align with Congress and the tribal Tipra Motha(TM) in the fight against the BJP. General Secretary Mr Sitaram Yechury, meeting newsmen recently along with senior state party leader Mr Jiten Choudhury, strongly emphasized that the first priority for the opposition going into the 2023 polls must be to ensure the defeat of the BJP.

On the other hand, while BJP leaders took their time in assessing the implications of the Left proposal for a joint Front with Congress, a smaller local outfit, the Peoples’ Congress (PC) announced the formation of a new front with Trinamool Congress and tribal party Tipra Motha (TM) as partners. This is virtually a direct challenge to the proposed Left-Congress alliance to challenge the ruling BJP.

The PC welcomed other forces opposed to the BJP but avoided mentioning the Congress and the CPI(M) making it clear that they had chosen to go separate ways in the battle against the BJP.

Judging by the speed of the new proposal from a small local party, to set up a new pre-poll formation with the TMC in it, there was a general impression that apparently some opposition forces were keener to assert their own political presence rather than exploring he possibility of a loose alliance of sorts with Congress and the CPI(M) to avoid an anti-BJP vote split.

A keen fight for power is on the cards in Tripura. It goes without saying that an opposition divided into two distinct camps, presenting their own separate narratives in their respective campaigns, could only help, not hinder, the BJP’s cause.

Mr Sitaram Yechury made it clear at his recent meet that Left and democratic forces must come together to fight the BJP not merely to win the elections. The greater fight was to strengthen the foundations of democracy, protect the basic rights of the people achieved after many years of struggles. During the BJP’s tenure at the centre and in different states, India’s Constitution and time-honoured political norms had been grossly violated. The economic sufferings of the common people all over India had increased phenomenally because of the BJP’s anti people policies, the CPI(M) general secretary underlined.

To avoid possible controversies , Mr Yechury parried specific questions as to whether the CPIM) which had won 16 out of 60 seats in 2018 assembly polls as it lost in Tripura after many years, would support a tribal candidate as the next Chief Minister, in the event of a BJP defeat. It was no different when he was pressed to explain the political outlook, and objectives behind the alignment with Congress, etc. Nor did he clarify whether former Chief minister Mr Manik Sarkar would contest this year’s polls . At one point he appealed to Mr Choudhury to reply to newsmen when the queries from mediapersons referred to local issues.

Sources suggest that while a proposal had now been formally made to the TM and Congress to join the Left and democratic forces, no discussions had been held yet even at the informal level. Tipra Motha is placed advantageously for bargaining with the national parties. The PC-TMC combination is offering TM leader Pradyot Manikya Debbarman chief minister’s position in case the BJP is defeated in the polls.

The TM it may be recalled had expressed its reservations about the possible alignment between the Left and the Congress. TM leaders doubted whether Congress supporters, many of whom had a very hard time during the long Left rule, would rally in large numbers to support the Left, forgetting the past.

As for the BJP, it reacted strongly to the proposal for a left-Congress joint Front. Senior leaders said it would be hard for common people to accept what would obviously be an opportunistic alliance between the Left and Congress. There had been too much violence and bitter history between the two parties. The sole reason for their understanding would be their desire to win power anyhow , caring for nothing else. ‘If the CPI(M) had won 16 seats in 2018, this year they would win 0 ‘, sais state BJP leaders.

The BJP stepped up its campaign, with prominent actor Mithun Chakravarty addressing rallies in his characteristic flamboyant style. He attacked the Left for its inability to alleviate the peoples’ sufferings during its long but barren tenure. At the organizational level, BJP sources say that till now, not much progress in their informal talks with TM, but the local leaders including the central leaders are trying and Home Minister Amit Shah has given strict directive that all steps have to be taken to ensure that the TM does not join the Left proposed alliance. Now the ball is in TM’s court. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

With most major parties adopting an ethnicity-based approach in their pre-poll campaigning, voting in the coming Assembly elections in Meghalaya could be sharply polarised, according to observers. Intriguingly, such a trend may be less noticeable in Tripura.

The involvement of Assam-based political heavyweight leaders with elections in neighbouring Meghalaya, which used to be a part of the larger Assam state in the past, is a significant factor in the 2023 polls. Assam Chief Minister Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma heads the Bharatiya Janata Party’s(BJP)’s overall campaign in the Northeast. Mr Sarma’s style of governance in Assam so far and his approach towards the religious minorities according to observers, tend to accentuate rather than reduce, ethno-centric politics : one has only to ask the average Muslim voter in Assam, to know their feeling about security in the state.

However, Mr Sarma’s aggressive campaign style has made an impact . It has forced parties challenging the BJP to readjust their objectives and adopt counter measures. The Bengal-based Trinamool Congress (TMC) for instance, finds itself automatically lining up behind Christian voters in Meghalaya, sworn as it is to oppose the BJP at every turn. For some time, this party from ‘outside’ has been trying to establish (none too successfully) a foothold somewhere in the Northeast. In a region where the Christian church remains an important political entity, backing it strongly helps the TMC to blend more easily with the familiar components and cross currents of the NE political scene, as it were.

In the present scenario where the BJP has stuck to its policy of not concealing its commitment to traditional Hindu values (its opponents call this Hindutva), wooing the majority community among voters, the TMC has emerged as the new champion of tribal/Christian interests in Meghalaya. Its state leaders strongly condemned recent attacks and acts of vandalism targeting the Church in BJP-ruled states at a news conference. The BJP was only keen to divide common people and rule, but the NE region was free from such tendencies, they said.

The TMC would fight the BJP’s ‘divisive’ ways all the way and not just as mute spectators either, they told media persons some days ago.

So far, TMC has announced the list of fifty two candidates out of the 60 seats in the assembly and the party is far ahead of other contending parties in the campaign. The ruling NPP-BJP alliance is having tensions over BJP’s policy regarding Uniform Civil Code. Chief Minister Conrad Sangma has announced that his NPP is opposed to UCC and his party will fight it even among the voters in the campaign. There is no joint rally of NPP and BJP.

But Meghalaya elections are not just about mobilising political support among Hindus (non tribals) or Christians (tribals). There are also forces, not perhaps as apparently assertive as the BJP or the debutant TMC, to speak up for Meghalaya-based non tribals (Bengalis, Sikhs, Biharis), too. The initiative came from Mr Debabrata Saikia of Congress, the leader of opposition in the Assam Assembly.

In a recent letter to Meghalaya Governor Mr B.D. Mishra, Mr Saikia strongly deplored an attack in broad daylight by an aggressive tribal outfit in Meghalaya against a peaceful procession of non tribals. Some of the marchers were beaten up, even the women not being spared, in full public view as the local police did not move a muscle to help. The incident was duly reported in Shillong-based dailies.

Mr Saikia appealed to the Meghalaya administration to ensure peace and social harmony and prevent the recurrence of such incidents. He also called for the punishment of miscreants involved in the incident. The non tribals living /working in Meghalaya were , he pointed out, Indian citizens enjoying the same rights as anyone else.

There has been no official response from the Meghalaya government or the Governor’s office on the matter.

However, the fact remains that in Meghalaya, the considerably large mixed non tribal groups, too, have been complaining of harassment and discrimination, but they feel that their grievances over the years have not been effectively addressed. Long time Sikh residents have complained of harassment from authorities and tribal groups over the location of their settlement and other issues. Bihari labourers have complained of exploitation, harsh working conditions and treatment from their employers in local mines and other places of work. Old Bengali citizens have been denounced by tribal organisations as ‘illegal Bangladeshis’.

Most non-tribals also strongly complain of official discrimination from authorities in securing jobs and in the matter of receiving routine help from the police.

With Mr Saikia boldly speaking up for the non- tribals in Meghalaya, most ethnic groups , have been assured of some form of political backing ,at least in theory. Congress had won the highest number of seats in 2018 Assembly polls in Meghalaya, with non-tribals providing it with major support, before the much smaller BJP upset its calculations by aligning with other parties to cobble together a coalition of sorts.

As for Muslims, the religious minority that finds itself at the receiving end of some controversial administrative decisions in Assam ruled by Mr Sarma — they have been automatically aligned within the broad non tribal group of voters. Normally the TMC arrogates to itself its self-appointed responsibility to speak up for the community all over India, offering it blanket support.

However, it is yet to do so in Meghalaya. Surprisingly, this has been the case in neighbouring Assam too, where the TMC in effect threatens to divide the Muslim vote by opposing the AIUDF as well as Congress.

As for Tripura, a different situation prevails. The rising Tipra Motha tribal organisation , totally unlike other ethnic communities/groups in the NE region, has as a matter of policy projected itself as a party that would represent the interests of all communities in the state. Its leader Mr Pradyot Manikya Debbarman has also not pressed for additional territories from neighbouring NE states while calling for a larger Tripura state. (IPA Service)

The post Religio-Ethnic Tensions Mark Election Campaign In Meghalaya As State Polls Near first appeared on IPA Newspack.

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By Ashis Biswas

In Tripura, the main contending formations in the coming Assembly elections have stepped up efforts to secure an alliance with the pace-setting tribal Tipra Motha (TM) party. So far, the TM has maintained an equidistance from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)/IPFT alliance and the Left front/Congress grouping.

Observers find such tactics somewhat predicable in the present circumstances. Both camps indirectly acknowledge the increasing political clout of the TM, especially after its spectacular victory in the Autonomous Tribal District Council Elections. A consolidation among 30% tribal voters in the state now looks a distinct possibility, prior to the 2023 polls.

On the other hand, the larger non-tribal majority votes will almost certainly get split several ways, which should strengthen the prospects of a tribal outfit emerging as a major contender of power . In 2018, the tribal IPFT (Indigenous Peoples’ Front of Tripura) had won eight seats out 60 — this, despite the reservation of 20 seats for tribals, a result of a split among tribal votes. The TM appears determined to prevent such a split of tribal votes in 2023 state assembly polls.

Recently, the CPI(M)-led Left Front and the Tripura state Congress unit in a rare joint statement appealed to the people of the state not to vote for the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Instead of the rule of law in Tripura, Left and Congress leaders alleged, the rule of the jungle was prevailing.

There were systematic attacks on various minority groups, against women and the poor, who also suffered a loss of jobs .murders, the intimidation of opposition activists, extortions and assaults on basic human rights had become common during the BJP rule. A section of the state police actively colluded with leaders of the ruling party and even with criminals who enjoyed political backing.

The distress among the people has become acute, who became further confused as there was no possibility of any redressal of their grievances as officials remained non responsive to their complaints. No opposition party had escaped the excesses committed by the BJP. The survival of democracy and minimal observance of standard political norms became uncertain under the BJP’s rule.

Veteran CPI(M) leader Mr Jitendra Choudhury and Mr. Birajit Sinha of Congress came together to address a news conference some days ago , while releasing the joint statement. Representatives of the RSP, the CPI and the CPI(M-L) were present. They claimed that they had approached TM leader Mr, Pradyot Manikya Debbarman to join their effort. They claimed that Mr Debbarman, not a signatory to the joint statement, fully endorsed the sentiments expressed in the statement.

State BJP leaders lost no time to denounce what they described as an opportunist alignment of the forces opposing them. Rejecting the allegation that the very foundations of democratic political functioning had been shaken, they claimed that the misrule of the Left front and earlier by Congress had become fully exposed over the years. They had been defeated in the polls and instead of recovering, they were losing more ground, which demoralised their followers.

According to the BJP, this had forced erstwhile arch enemies like the CPI(M) and Congress together in an opportunist alliance. Again, some senior Congress leaders had not signed the joint statement. In itself, the move proclaimed their weakness and lack of confidence as the elections approached.

The BJP was not impacted by such spectacles of a sham ‘unity’ among its opponents. Left parties and Congress had tried to adopt a joint mode of campaigning and even poll understanding, solely to stand up to the BJP’s challenge elsewhere also, including West Bengal. They had failed miserably in their campaigns against the BJP as the people could not support their opportunism. Common people could feel the benefits of the major investments and schemes that had been launched in Tripura from 2018 during the BJP’s tenure.

While the BJP’s reaction was along expected lines, Mr Debbarman, TM leader. chose to remain non-commitant about these moves. Later in a measured reaction to the media, he maintained his equidistant position from both the pro-BJP and the anti-BJP camps.

The TM also felt the present law and order situation was not good, as the basic rights of tribals as well as non tribals had been affected since 2018. This had led to public suffering. The TM was keeping a watch over the situation. As for the coming together of Congress and the Left parties, Mr, Debbarman said that Congressmen and supporters had suffered in a major way during the prolonged LF rule.

There was further indication that the BJP, too, had changed its earlier stance regarding an alliance with a tribal organisation prior to the polls. It has not written off its existing alliance with the IPFT, which incidentally could not do very well against the TM in the District Council polls. State BJP leaders had earlier ruled out any alliance with the TM.

However, now sections of the NE-based observers suggest that this has changed. Prime Minister Mr, Narendra Modi himself had told Tripura BJP leaders to begin pre-poll talks with the TM, during a recent closed door meeting with Tripura party leaders. Some state leaders had been assigned with the task of initiating a dialogue, with the TM,. On behalf of the central BJP leadership, senior party spokesman Mr. Sambit Patra would monitor and report progress to Delhi. (IPA Service)

The post In Tripura, All National Parties Vying With Each Other To Woo Tipra Motha first appeared on IPA Newspack.

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By Ashis Biswas

With old ethnic tensions being revived during the current pre –Assembly polls campaign in Tripura and Meghalaya, there is every likelihood of a more polarized vote in the Northeast. And the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is largely responsible for this.

As anticipated, the major controversy triggered by the ‘secret’ Assam police Special Branch note to District SPs, seeking details of activities conducted by Church authorities , focusing in particular on issues like conversions and asset acquisition, shows no signs of ending. Clearly, Assam Chief Minister Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma’s brief announcement dismissing the highly sensitive communication as unofficial and disowning responsibility, has not been accepted at face value.

If anything, the situation has turned more embarrassing for all concerned authorities, whether at the state or central levels. This happened after Trinamool Congress(TMC) spokesman- cum- activist , the redoubtable Mr Saket Gokhale took an escalatory step. He sent a complaint to the Embassy of Holy See of the Vatican in India, according to Northeast mainstream media, complaining of the deliberate sidelining of Christians in India during the BJP’s tenure. Party insiders said he had pressed for an immediate intervention from appropriate international authorities to help India’s targeted minority Christian community .

TMC circles, defending the move said they had little choice as Mr Sarma’s explanation did not seem to be convincing. Now the matter would at least be handled at the level of the Ministry of Home Affairs in Delhi.

From the ruling BJP, whether in Assam or Delhi, there was no explanation as to how such a communication, dealing with issues of extreme sensitivity, involving diverse ethnic groups of people living in a habitually volatile region, came to be leaked in the media before the elections ! ‘Whatever the ultimate official justification for such a lapse, these instances of top-level inefficiency hardly enhance the prestige of our elaborate national security establishment,’ said a Kolkata-based TMC leader. Worse, they increased the distrust between communities, instead of contributing to greater social harmony.

In Tripura, the BJP has rejected the idea of joining any pre-poll alliance with Tipra Motha, the new entrant currently making waves in the electoral scene. In Meghalaya, the BJP began with two seats in the 60 member house in 2018, but over the years, its strength rose to 6, with defections from other parties adding to its strength. It was a junior partner in the National Peoples’ Party-led Meghalaya Democratic Alliance Ministry (MDA).

Northeast media reports suggest the party will contest around 25 seats on its own and hopes to do much better this time. There were some dissidents within the party not satisfied with the performance of Mr Ernest Mawrie as the state party President, himself a contestant this time. But of late local misunderstandings had been mostly sorted out, according to party sources.

The emergence of Tipra Motha, the indigenous tribal- led organisation headed by the young popular Pradyot Manikya, has turned into a challenge for other contending parties in Meghalaya, no matter how major. The success of the Tipra Motha in the prestigious state autonomous tribal District Council polls, upstaging older tribal formations functioning within the ruling NDA Ministry in Tripura impressed many. Most young educated tribals have responded to the TM’s appeal: it stands for a greater Tipraland, seeking more educational/economic opportunities for indigenous tribespeople .

Mr Manikya’s grouse is that even 70 years after independence, the tribespeople have remained poor and backward .This must change urgently. The Motha is not targeting any community or group in the region and is committed to strictly observing democratic norms in carrying out its socio-political movements Such a commitment puts it at a different level from other similar parties in the region, according to observers.

When it comes to countering the TM’s demands and its criticism of the present, more established parties in Tripura, the BJP has proved more vocal than others. It has accused the TM of corruption, levelling the most damaging charge against a political party : the saffron party alleges that the TM received generous funds from the centre and state Governments to run the District Councils it had won a year ago, for carrying out local development work .

Yet, the party failed to submit detailed statements of the expenditures the Council incurred, which did not speak well of its financial transparency. The TM on the other hand, charged the state Government of virtually starving it of funds, to create unnecessary problems for the Council.

What remains unclear how the TM’s eventual vision of a greater tribal-dominated state within (or will it need territory from adjoining states as well ?) Tripura can be achieved. No roadmap has been announced yet.

The issue, which might have been discussed at the highest level, was publicly not made clear even during the recent visit of a TM deputation to Delhi. A large team of about 1500 tribal leaders and workers led by Mr Manikya visited the national capital to highlight their campaign.

So far there has been no official response from the central BJP leadership to the Motha campaign or its long term demand for a bigger separate state. Observers suggest that the present autonomous tribal district enjoys the widest possible administrative powers permissible under the law, as things stand. While the demand for separate statehood from an autonomous position is no more than natural progression for most political organisations, Tripura remains a very small state with limited resources in the Northeast, hardly having the kind of space needed to accommodate a separate state.

In any case can such a move be considered seriously in the face of objections almost sure to arise from the existing non-tribal population in the state, accounting for over 70% of the aggregate mix? As of now there have been no clear answer to the obvious question lurking in most minds. Given the turbulent history of the long and often bloody encounters involving tribals and non -tribals in Tripura, dealing with new complex political demands will call for deft statesmanship in the days ahead, if political stability and a stable ethnic relationship is to be maintained in the Northeast. (IPA Service)

The post Undercurrents Of Ethnic Tensions Revived In North East Before State Polls first appeared on IPA Newspack.

The article Undercurrents Of Ethnic Tensions Revived In North East Before State Polls appeared first on Arabian Post.

By Ashis Biswas

As the pre Assembly poll campaign warms up in Tripura, the state seems to be heading for a sharper ethnic divide in 2023 between the majority Bengalis and native tribal groups. New poll entrants Tipra Motha (TM) fighting for a greater separate Tripura (Tipraland) state, have confirmed the worst fears of the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) by calling for a greater tribal consolidation .

It has appealed to BJP’s tribal ally Indigenous Peoples’ Front of Tripura (IPFT) to support and join the movement for separate statehood. The state BJP unit has not been particularly surprised, its leaders had earlier expressed their anxieties about the TM’s political motives. There has been no immediate reaction from the ruling BJP which has already announced plans to maintain its present alignment with the IPFT and ruled out any understanding with the TM.

In 2018 the BJP got majority for the first time in the state assembly polls along with its ally IPFT defeating the Left Front. The isolation of the CPI(M)  from the tribals led   to   the defeat  of   the  Front. The tribals constitute 31 per cent of the population of Tripura..

In recent times, Tripura has undergone spells of sporadic political violence, but the TM’s tentative initial steps have not been provocative. Non tribals and Muslims have been present in significant numbers at its mass meetings. TM leader Pradyot Debbarma has taken care to insist that the party is not targeting non tribals in any way. It will pursue its objectives in the Constitutional way.

Its approach so far remains a contrast with the more aggressive assertion shown by the IPFT, which also conducted an agitation for separate statehood some years ago. There had occurred much tension and some violence at the time. Its alignment with the ruling BJP has somewhat blunted the earlier sharper edge, of the IPFT’s agitation for separate statehood following its participation in the process of administration and governance.

Understandably, there has been noticeable support for the TM according to Tripura-based media reports, among the new generation of aspirant tribal youths, most of whom are as a rule more proficient in the use of English not to mention the internet, than their older family members and relatives.

The recent victory of the TM in the Tribal Autonomous district council elections, where the party won an impressive 18 out of 28 seats, with an aggregate vote share of47% was a clear sign that the new outfit could not be taken lightly by other political rivals, especially by the IPFT.

Under the 6th schedule provisions, the Tripura Autonomous tribal district council enjoys considerably wider powers than similar autonomous bodies anywhere in the Northeast. In part, the credit goes to the CPI(M), which was ruling the state earlier, as it dealt far more generously with long standing tribal sentiments and demands than most ruling parties, under the astute leadership of veteran leaders Dasrath Debbarma and Nripen Chakravarty.

In recent times, even as they renew their bid to win back power they lost to the BJP in 2018, the CPI(M) and its allies , according to observers, are feeling a bit sidelined. The unexpected defeat of Left Front Government under Chief Minister Mr Manik Sarkar, despite his personal integrity, continues to rankle..

The spate of centrally sponsored infra-related connectivity schemes, new rail and road development projects and trade linkages with Bangladesh have certainly taken Tripura’s economy to a new level. The Central Government has also helped reduce travelling tome between Tripura and west Bengal by helping arrange better communication through Bangladesh. This has helped the BJP in launching an aggressive ‘pro-development campaign’.

Its domestic governance record, according to the CPI(M), the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and other opposition parties, has been wretched. Democratic norms have been brutally violated, elections have been forcibly rigged and opposition candidates were not allowed to carry on their poll campaign in the recently concluded civic elections.

The state police has been used in a partisan manner. While corruption in general has risen, during and after the Corona pandemic, economic distress in both urban and rural areas also increased, as the state government failed to provide much relief to common people.

The BJP has much to answer for especially among hard pressed common people who paid the price for unemployment and a drop in their incomes, while ruling party-backed anti socials were allowed to flourish’ has been the broad theme of the opposition-sponsored campaign so far.

The other major concern among both opposition as well as ruling party circles is whether a potential consolidation of the tribal vote bank, would lead to a similar coming together among Bengali voters in the state, by way of a reaction. In the Northeast region as a whole, political loyalties have been often dominated by considerations of their ethnic origins and local history, among voters. Opposition parties fear that the BJP might win an advantage if this were to happen.

State BJP leaders point to the example set by Assam Chief minister Hemant Biswa Sarma in this context. Once seen as an Assamiya hardliner in matters relating to the status of Bengali Hindus and Muslims in Assam , as a chief Minister he has gone out of his way to accommodate the fears of common people in Bengali-dominated Barak Valley areas and also encouraged local economic development.

Therefore the tribals, BJP leaders insist, should have no fears of being sidelined in Tripura now or in the future. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

With crippling power cuts continuing, Bangladesh Government is going all out to buy more power from its regional neighbours , and also examining the possibility of producing ‘green energy’ by using hydrogen, following recent measures taken in advanced Western countries.

The ruling Awami League (AL) Government has been subjected to stinging attacks from the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and other forces for what the latter see as a miserable official failure to address the country’s power woes. Since load shedding in Bangladesh had impacted overall industrial production long before the Ukraine conflict began, it has become easier for the opposition to target the incumbent Ministry for its alleged inability to anticipate the emergency-like situation that has followed.

There has been some progress happily for Bangladesh Government: in its bid to buy more hydropower from Nepal, it has welcomed the environmental clearance given by local authorities required for implementing the major 683 megawatt Sunkoshi-3 project. Dhaka-based officials have offered to invest substantially in the project — estimated cost over Rs (Indian) 160 billion — which would enable them to import a sizable quantity of power.

Further Bangladesh looking ahead at its long term power requirements, , had indicated that its participation in Sunkoshi scheme could be deemed a pilot developmental effort between two South Asian neighbours , opening a new chapter in regional economic ties. If things went according to plan, Bangladesh could follow up its investments in Sunkoshi by participating in a proposed much larger 1700-plus megawatt hydropower project in the medium term.

Power from the Sunkoshi project however, would only partially fulfill the sharply rising demand for power in Bangladesh. The proposed transmission line from the high Nepal hills to Bheramara (Bangladesh) supply point would require an approval from India. While Kathmandu and Dhaka-based authorities in their preliminary talks have agreed to approach India formally, no official request for permission has been made yet. However, at the next round of talks between the two participating countries, the first to be held since August 2022, this could change.

Initially a supply of around 50 MWs from Sunkoshi is being envisaged in view of existing terrain conditions and other factors.

According to Dhaka-based media, the country urgently needed to arrange additional supply of 10,000 MWs, in the medium term, to meet the growing demands for its rapidly expanding industrial sector. Following positive talks between leaders/officials of both countries, Bangladesh had indicated plans to draw at least 500 MWs from the proposed Karnali hydropower project, scheduled to produce 900 MWs.

It would also draw a large amount of power from another project at Karnali that is being implemented by the National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) of India.

Before the war broke out in Europe, Dhaka officials were seeking to ensure a daily supply target of around 30,000 MWs through increased domestic production and major imports from within the region, especially from India and Nepal.

With its gas reserves expected to last only for another 2/3 years, Bangladesh is increasing its coal production to raise its thermal power production. It currently imports around 1100 MWs daily from India , receiving the supplies at Bheramare and Comilla, from Baharampur (West Bengal) and Tripura, respectively. However, production from the 1200-MW Rooppur thermal power plant, implemented by major Indian companies, would begin soon, which should help Bangladesh meet especially its winter power demands more comfortably, looking forward.

The problem for the ruling AL authorities is that sincere as it is in its efforts to work out solutions to meet the demand for more power , most hydropower schemes will need some time to become operational. And time is something the Al cannot afford to lose, facing general elections scheduled for Dec 2023. As things stand, many details still remain unsettled.

The nature of bilateral or trilateral co-operation and the use of suitable instrumentalities need to be settled urgently. The three countries need to work out what will work best —Government to government dealings, with only official agencies being involved in the production/transmission/distribution and overall regional supply; or usual private sector/public sector transactions, or a PPP model.

There would be key roles to be played in the emerging regional power production scenario by organisations like the Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), the Bangladesh Power Development Board (BPDB), the NTPC and major Indian non Government Indian private entities like the Adanis and Reliance. Both are currently active in several projects in the neighbouring countries.

The proposal to consider the increasing use of hydrogen in future ‘green’ non polluting power generating schemes seems somewhat futuristic in the present context of Bangladesh power sector trends. But the authorities appear determined not to pursue the idea just as an advanced whose time is yet to come. Bangladesh authorities have increased the use of electricity-run vehicles on a minor scale and propose to step up such efforts.

Regardless of the running battle between the Al and the BNP and the turbulent record of past destructive politics in Bangladesh , it cannot be denied that when it come to fighting the worst impacts of global warming and climate change, the country stands  firmly united. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Ahead of the Meghalaya and Tripura state Assembly elections in 2023, Trinamool Congress (TMC) supremo  Mamata Banerjee , currently visiting the Northeast,  is sending out  mixed signals to  major national  parties like the BJP and Congress .

Steps taken by the TMC  so far  in Meghalaya and Assam, indicate a flexible, carefully balanced  approach  to issues that would ease the way for the  TMC to align either with the  national  parties  during/after the scheduled Lok Sabha polls in 2024.

Observers well acquainted with the somewhat impulsive political style of Ms Banerjee herself,  ascribe the astuteness implicit in such a fine-tuned  strategy to the TMC’s advisor in chief Mr Prashant Kishor. His IPAC agency of  political researchers have long been  doing the spadework  in states like Manipur, Assam ,Tripura and Meghalaya, working on pre-poll ‘social surveys’ and related matters for the TMC.

In plain language, this means some of  the TMC’s  recent announcements  in  Meghalaya may be seemingly  directed against the  BJP-run Assam Government, reiterating its  claims of being the only  anti  BJP  outfit in  India  — on the other hand,  recent steps taken by the TMC  in  Assam will  effectively  splinter the  traditionally  anti-BJP minority vote bank , much to the delight of state Chief Minister Himanta Biswa  Sarma.

The latter is well aware of this . Some time ago, Mr Sarma had said,  half in jest, that he would personally help the TMC to contest elections in Assam,  emphasizing  that the party would cut into the Congress vote bank !

Assam-based media reports commenting on recent moves made by the TMC, now strengthened by the joining of former Congress heavyweight Mr. Ripun Bora,  have noted  its vitriolic attacks against the  predominantly Muslim organisation AIUDF led by MP Badruddin Ajmal.  Despite its professedly secular  programmes in theory,  the All India United Democratic Front  is seen largely as the only force  that fights for ‘vulnerable Muslims’ (allegedly  Bangladeshi infiltrators) in Assam.

The bottom line:the estimated 35% Muslim vote in Assam  would be split  among the TMC, the AIUDF and Congress  Net gains  in this  for the BJP,  another nail into the coffin  for the weakening Congress.

In contrast TMC leaders  in Assam  hardly ever attack the Congress  in their public rallies or statements , even while poaching its  top leaders  and workers at every opportunity.  Obviously the TMC does not want to queer its pitch with Congress too strongly, keeping in view the pre-poll  scenario for the 2024 Lok sabha polls. It would not close the door  on its options to join a nation-wide anti BJP coalition.

Now that Mr. Bora has joined the  TMC following his failure  to retain his Rajya Sabha seat, the TMC expects to make inroads into the relatively hard core Assamiya community. Having  snatching Ms Sushmita Dev from Congress  some time ago, the TMC feels relatively more comfortable about  firming up  a Bengali vote bank in the Barak Valley.

In Meghalaya,  Ms Banerjee’s comments against the Assam administration and its dealings with the smaller states have been described as ‘inflammatory ‘ in sections of the  state-based media, at a time Chief Ministers of both states have been busy in  defusing tensions and maintaining  order.She was addressing tribal party workers in Shillong.  The TMC , according to Shillong-based analysts  was wooing the dominant Khasi tribe, whereas  it felt more comfortable with its present support base in Garo-tribe dominated Tura and adjacent regions.

Using  words whose directness attracted  local  media attention, Ms Banerjee accused  the Assam Government  of trying to take over Meghalaya land. The TMC would always support local people actively  in their fight against  the Assam  Government, she declared . No action had been taken in Guwahati, she alleged against policemen involved in the killing of five people over a misunderstanding of territorial jurisdiction between the two state governments, she alleged.

She paid Rs 500,000  as compensation to the next  of kin of the victims. Further she assured Meghalaya voters  of paying  at least one women in  every family Rs 1000 a month, as in West Bengal, if the TMC was elected to power in Meghalaya. She referred to  other similar welfare schemes already running with great success in West Bengal in this context. Local media persons  noted her unfamiliarity with  the names of various tribal groups and their leaders, incidentally.  TMC  leaders also met prominent Christian leaders and opinion makers , appealing to them to bring about’ a  political change’ in the state  to empower the people more.

While most other parties adopted a wait and watch mode about the TMC’s moves, there was no doubting the galvanizing impact  within the TMC  of Ms Banerjee’s visit. Other parties too, began  pre poll preparations with slightly more urgency, bringing out posters and banners, though not on a scale comparable to the TMC show.

Senior  state leader Mr Mukul Sangma  said that the TMC would contest all 60 seats, and some of its candidates had already been decided informally. This at a time most other parties were far from finalising such matters.

Local observers also noted that the TMC’s aggressive campaign would certainly cut into the support base of Congress and the National Peoples’ Party NPP led by ruling Chief Minister Mr Conrad Sangma and supported by the minuscule  BJP.  In other words, in Meghalaya too, the TMC would in effect contest and seek to reduce the votes won by  two non-BJP parties, which may  encourage  the  saffron party to expand  its own campaign and  seek fresh gains in  none-too-familiar territory ! (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In Meghalaya, led by MP Abhishek Banerjee, the state unit of the Trinamool Congress (TMC)has surprised hill voters by launching a massive pre-poll campaign a few days ago. In a state where most other parties including the ruling National Peoples’ Party, Congress and the BJP have not moved beyond the stage of inner party discussions the new entrant TMC organised a major rally attended by an estimated 15,000 people at Tura, addressed by Mr. Banerjee.

Commenting on the matter, Shillong-based media reported that elections in the state were usually a laid back affair, unlike polling trends in other states. Rallies attended by 5000 people or more were rare. Even the TMC used to hold compact meetings. Smaller gatherings held a few days prior to the day of polling was the norm for most contestants.

This time, the TMC according to commentators and local leaders, has tried to win local attention with a new style, full-throated political campaign long before the poll schedule has been announced. Veteran leader Mukul Sangma, a former Congressman who joined the TMC, has been understandably busier than other heavyweight leaders who are yet to join the fray. With the date of elections yet to be announced, no party has finalised a list of its candidates, even as informal talks are on exploring the possibility of alliances in the familiar NE political style.

Apart from carrying out a house to house campaign to make the TMC rally a success, local leaders spared no pains to make Mr Banerjee’s visit a major programme in its own right. TMC flags and banners were put up not only in Shillong, but in many parts of the state, surprising other parties.

TMC leaders are looking forward to following up Mr Banerjee’s programme by organizing an even bigger event soon– along awaited visit to Meghalaya by West Bengal Chief Minister and TMC supremo Ms Mamata Banerjee herself. The party expects even larger record-breaking crowds to attend her meetings. The assembly elections are due early next year. The rejuvenated TMC is all set to use the popularity of Bengal CM in the poll campaign.

These big ticket events are apparently apart of an elaborate campaign plan worked out by poll strategist Mr Prashant Kishor who has been working closely with Mr Banerjee these days. Incidentally Mr. Banerjee has not only addressed a big rally, with his message to the people to give the TMC a chance to develop and strengthen the state of Meghalaya. He strongly attacked the BJP and Congress for their divisive policies and administrative failures which had hurt the people in the hills.

The MP from Diamond Harbour in West Bengal, who is also the TMC General Secretary, took the opportunity to launch another attack against the BJP while commenting on the recent Assam-Meghalaya border incident wherein six people were killed in firing by Assam police. The people of Meghalaya, he said must stand up once and for all to stop the never- ending bullying from Assam, a BJP-ruled State. The TMC in Meghalaya would never stand for such treatment from its bigger neighbour, he added.

The TMC’s political fanfare has naturally attracted comments, encouraging speculation about it sample resource base. The party is supposed to be under severe political pressures, following the recent widespread arrest of its Ministers, MLAs and other leaders in connection with several major scams costing the state exchequer hundreds of crore of rupees in West Bengal. Mr Banerjee, his wife and in-laws have faced questioning from the Enforcement Directorate in connection with instances of major corruption.

This has had an impact on the party’s activities in the Northeast states, too. Only weeks ago, TMC insiders in Bengal admitted that expanding organizational work in the region was getting more difficult because of ‘financial constraints’.

However, present developments in Meghalaya suggest that the party has got over its financial problems , for now.

Bengal-based TMC leaders are not surprised by the lavish launch of their pre-poll campaign in Meghalaya. They conceded that the earlier TMC campaign in Tripura to challenge the BJP in the municipal polls, too had been expensive. Unconfirmed reports claimed that over Rs 60 crore had been spent in Tripura, as Kolkata-based leaders carried out a pre-election blitz to woo the Tripura voters with accounts of various social welfare programmes run by the party in Bengal.   PK’s team had visited the state and directed the campaign — not only in Tripura but also in the Goa Assembly elections, later on.

Both in Tripura and later in Goa, Kishor’s plans did not succeed. In Goa, the TMC according to reports published in various media had spent Rs 47 crore during the Assembly poll campaign. The BJP had spent Rs 17 crore and Congress, Rs 12 crore and the AAP, around Rs 3 crore.

In Tripura, the TMC could not win any of the 330-plus seats in the municipal polls and ditto in the 40-strong Goa Assembly. The AAP on the other hand, made a better debut than the TMC winning two seats while contesting with fewer candidates, and spending less than one-fifth of the amount spent by the TMC. But TMC is determined to make a big breakthrough in Meghalaya politics in 2023 following the programme set by Prashant Kishor. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Thanks to improved regional connectivity and growing bilateral interest, the volume of trade between India’s Northeastern states and Bangladesh has gone up significantly in recent years. Present trends are positive enough to generate optimism among analysts about medium term prospects of North East India-Bangladesh bilateral trade: they feel that the foundation of a new trade/business hub dominated by imports and exports, has finally been laid.

The present phase of growth is the outcome of consistent efforts made by both Indian and Bangladeshi authorities during the past decade to explore new ways for expanding bilateral trade. The exercise fitted in well with India’s own regional LookEast initiative, seeking to extend its diplomatic/economic outreach.

While welcoming the growth in Indo-Bangla bilateral trade, Chambers of Commerce sources are hopeful that growing economic ties between the two countries could well ensure the success of the LookEast programme: by way of comparison. It can be seen Indo-Myanmar bilateral business, largely because of the volatility of Myanmar’s domestic politics, has not progressed smoothly in recent years.

Broadly speaking, Bangladesh imports more finished products and value-added items from India, whereas the bigger country imports comparatively goods less processed and raw materials. This naturally results in a negative balance of trade for the smaller country. Both countries have over the years tried to reduce the gap to the extent possible, through periodic negotiations and re-arrangements of existing terms of trade.

By reducing levies / withdrawing tariff on some Bangladeshi goods, India has tried to accommodate Bangladesh as far as possible .Occasionally this has evoked protests within India from sections of entrepreneurs, especially in the textile sector, who complained of losing their domestic markets.

On the other hand, Bangladesh, faced with growing trade imbalance, feels India could be more helpful.  However, with industry and manufacture picking up in Bangladesh in recent years, its exports have grown gradually more sophisticated.

Recent Assam-based media reports indicate that the Northeastern states imported from Bangladesh taka 367 crore worth if items during 2019-20, a sharp increase from the year before, when the figure was tk 40 crore! (One Bangladeshi taka equals about 85/90 paise of the Indian rupee). The NE states exported tk 472 crore worth of goods in 2018-19 and good worth tk 390 crore during 2019-20.

During bilateral negotiations, it was generally agreed that there was a rising demand in both countries to step up trade and business. The seven NE states sold to Bangladesh large quantities of coal, engineering items and products, auto equipment, besides coal, stones, eggs and onions, etc. There was a special demand in Bangladesh for tea produced in Assam, along with cotton and products, petroleum goods as well as glass items and ores from Meghalaya. Fruits and corn grown in Arunachal Pradesh and handicrafts from Manipur too, were popular in Bangladesh.

Similarly, in the NE region, there was good demand for cement, plastic items and packaged foods from Bangladesh, as well as for different varieties of fish– especially the Hilsa!

With India granting Bangladesh transit rights to access Nepal and Bhutan through its territory, experts are hopeful that the volume of regional trade as a whole would expand gradually. As both India and Bangladesh have agreed to use rivers, roads and railways linking both countries mutually, travel and easier movement of goods, involving the saving of both travel time and costs, have become possible.

Moving through Bangladesh territory, the distance from Agartala to Kolkata has been reduced from about 1600 kilometres through the long Assam detour, to about 600 kms only — and time taken has been cut from about 48 hours earlier to about 32 hours at present.

Bangladeshi Prime Minister Mrs Sheikh Hasina during her meetings with Indian Prime Minister Mr Narendra Modi, had suggested that NE-based industrialists/entrepreneurs could use the Chittagong and Mongla ports for their export trade, which were geographically much nearer than the Kolkata port. The use of Mongla port could ease the congestion and delays often experienced at Chittagong. Mongla port could earn more revenues, while Indian users could profit by saving travel time and costs, not to mention the occasional congestion at Kolkata port.

India has started dispatching engineering goods and foodgrains to Agartala from Kolkata port, using the river routes within Bangladesh. In Bangladesh, efforts are on among entrepreneurs to ascertain the possibilities of expanding trade with Nepal and Bhutan. Travel operators and agencies are confident of a rapid expansion in tourism and related activities.

Bangladesh is also keen to import power from both Nepal and Bhutan, to meet its growing domestic demand. At present, the country receives fuel supplies through a pipeline from Bongaigaon refinery complex running through North Bengal. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In Meghalaya, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), as a small entity within the ruling Meghalaya Democratic Alliance (MDA) government, starts its pre-2023 Assembly poll campaign with a handicap against rival, the Trinamool Congress (TMC). Led by former Congress leader Mukul Sangma, the TMC has 12 members in the 60-strong state Assembly and leads the opposition against  the MDA coalition leader NPP (National Peoples Party), headed by Chief Minister Conrad Sangma.

The BJP had won only two seats in the 2018 assembly elections. Ironically, the Congress had then narrowly emerged as the biggest party ahead of even the now-ruling NPP. However, post-election parleys led to the formation of the MDA alliance enabling the BJP to join it, under the NPP’s leadership, with support from other smaller regional parties. This helped fulfill the BJP’s main objective in the Northeast — to keep its main opposition Congress out of power.

This time, the BJP and the NPP have indicated that they would not have any pre-poll alliance, or seat adjustments. The NPP supports the BJP-led NDA government at the centre. This makes it easy for other parties to question its sincerity in distancing itself from the saffron party in Meghalaya. NPP spokespersons maintain that their compulsions in state level politics and local issues substantially differ from political choices they face at the national level.

On its part, the BJP too has indicated its decision of going solo and contesting in as many seats as possible. Given the time-honoured traditions of floor crossing in Northeast states, the possibility of the two parties coming together again in a post-poll alliance cannot be ruled out.

As for the TMC, its baptism into the volatile Northeast politics during the last few years has followed a roller-coaster pattern. Disaffected leaders and supporters from smaller regional parties have joined its ranks in the past in different Northeastern states. TMC leaders from Kolkata have helped them set up party offices and have also helped with campaigning during elections.

However, the outcome of TMC’s Northeast outreach has not been very encouraging, whether in Tripura in recent times, or elsewhere. Worse, the TMC, in common with most other parties, has not been able to preserve its identity at times, failing to halt mass defections to winning parties   to maintain the leaders’ local political relevance.

It must be noted though that the present TMC leader in Meghalaya, Mukul Sangma, has been a veteran Congressman for years, enjoying a special status in the NE region.

Sangma has already launched an anti-MDA campaign, dismissing current Chief Minister Conrad Sangma as nothing more than “a puppet put up by Delhi”, while addressing public rallies. Political leaders as well as most ethnic tribal groups in the region harbour a general distrust about leaders and parties ‘from outside’, or other Indian states.

It comes as no surprise to see Sangma (TMC) attack the incumbent Chief Minister for aligning a long-awaited border agreement with Assam, currently helmed by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. The TMC’s complaint is that 66 acres were given away to the BJP-ruled neighbouring state (Assam) under pressure from Delhi.

CM Conrad Sangma retorted that about 40 acres of territory would be shared almost equally between the two states, finally ending a 50-year old dispute. Similar agreements would be worked out for other disputed areas as well, CM Sangma asserted. The agreement was warmly welcomed by Union Home Minister Amit Shah, who monitored northeast developments closely.

CM Sangma also adopts a statesman-like approach as the pre-poll campaign warms up. He has recently rued the fact that during the last 50 years, Meghalaya had not made much progress, falling behind other states. He said that his party (NPP) had drawn up a vision-cum-roadmap that could be used as a guideline in the future to ensure Meghalaya’s rapid progress over the next decades.

Both the TMC and the NPP are carrying out vigorous campaigns online, using their respective websites as well as social media, a sign of the changing times. The expert IPAC group headed by poll strategist Prashant Kishor helps run the TMC campaign, never mind Kishor’s usual denial of not involving himself with politics anymore. The BJP and other parties are also running a strong campaign through their respective websites, with help from their legion of IT cell trolls and influencers.

Chief Minister Conrad Sangma has been working hard to conclude a peace-cum-rehabilitation treaty with the banned Hynniewtrep National Liberation Council (HNLC) extremist group in Meghalaya for some time now. HNLC delegations met state officials for talks in August and are scheduled to visit again sometime this month. HNLC spokespersons say that discussions are on to explain their demands, future agenda and other issues with the state government. Progress is monitored by the Union home ministry.

In case the MDA government manages to work out a positive understanding with the HNLC-led tribals, it would go a long way to ensure lasting peace for the state and earn Chief Minister Sangma major points in his campaign.

Meanwhile, tribal/non-tribal tensions continue to plague Meghalaya’s politics as before. Assam Congress leader Debabrata Saikia recently wrote to the Meghalaya Governor, urging him to take strong action against tribal marchers who recently attacked non-tribal shops and people during a protest march, not even sparing women. However, the police took no action against the offenders. Saikia also called for an immediate probe into the matter, in view of the continued attacks on non-tribals.

Some time ago, it may be that recalled Tathagata Roy, the former Governor of Meghalaya, had condemned the Khasi Students Union (KSU) for its repeated attacks and provocations against non-tribal people. He had said the KSU should be banned, like the HNLC and other armed groups threatening ethnic harmony and law and order. Non-tribals in Meghalaya have been reduced to the precarious status of Kashmiri Pandits, over the years, he pointed out. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In Tripura, the ruling BJP continues to be hit by factionalism and organisational problems, despite efforts made by senior Delhi-based leaders to improve discipline. As things stand, with parties gearing up for the 2023 Assembly polls ,senior BJP leader Mahesh Singh, who played a major role in crafting the party’s electoral victory in Uttar Pradesh is hopeful that the ruling party would win a second term with a comfortable majority.

Mr Singh’s assertion comes in the wake of contrarian state-based media reports suggesting that the ruling BJP is a divided house. BJP activists/supporters have for some time been split into rival camps following Chief Minister Manik Saha and ex CM Biplab Deb. It is common knowledge that Mr Deb had not relinquished his grip on the party organisation, despite having to step down as the top leader. The BJP’s national leadership took the step following major complaints of deterioration in the law and order situation and increasing corruption among other things. The choice of Mr Saha as his successor was made primarily because of his being the most non -controversial face within party.

But now  acrimony between different factions have reached a point where some state BJP leaders believed to be Deb loyalists, wrote to the central leadership some days ago, complaining against certain aspects of the present Chief Minister’s functioning. Apart from Mr Singh, Mr Sambit Patra, BJP spokesman, has also been busy meeting district leaders in recent days. The leadership is in the advanced stage of finally evaluating the respective merits of probable candidates for the coming Assembly polls in early 2023.

In 2018, the BJP had won 36 out of 60 seats in the Assembly, while 8 seats went to its ally, the Tribal Indigenous Peoples’ Front of Tripura. The outcome spelt the end of a 25-year long tenure enjoyed by the CPI(M), signifying the political consolidation of the BJP in the northeast region.

As with the Trinamool Congress (TMC) in West Bengal, the BJP as the ruling party stands accused of encouraging corruption and enjoying links with the drug smuggling syndicate. Law and order has worsened to a point where all opposition parties complain of not being allowed to function freely, with the police being run in a partisan manner. Incidents of violence and rapes, including attacks against children, have increased, according to opposition leaders. Senior BJP leaders are reportedly ‘examining’ a demand for the cultivation of ganja in the state.

On the other hand, Chief Minister Manik Saha is known to be strongly against criminal rackets operating in the state, especially during election times. He has ordered the police to take stricter action against anti socials.

The TMC in Tripura which failed miserably to make a dent in the state during the one-sided civic elections held some time back, is protesting against the increase in criminal activities, encouraged by the government. The TMC has become more active especially after former Congress leader Ms Sushmita Dev of Assam started looking after TMC organization in Tripura.

From TMC headquarters in Kolkata, former Bengal Minister , the Howrah-based leader , Rajib Banerjee has also been camping in Tripura for some months He has been tasked with ensuring grassroot level growth in the NE state, which could go a long way to give the TMC a firm footing in a new area. He has been holding organisational meetings as well as attending party rallies.

However, there are reports that within the state unit, mixed feelings exist about the prominence given to Mr. Banerjee as well as to Ms Dev, on the grounds of their being imported ‘outsiders’ not really familiar with Tripura’s politics.

To some extent the top TMC leadership can also be held accountable for such insularism within the Tripura unit. TMC leaders from supremo Mamata Banerjee downwards had attacked non-state leaders from the BJP and other parties as they visited and campaigned in the 2021 West Bengal assembly polls, for being ‘outsiders.’

In the TMC’s pre-election campaign, its leaders promise to implements free of cost public welfare schemes like Swastha Sathi, Kanyasree, free rations and medical treatment for the people of Tripura — along the lines of such programmes running in West Bengal under the TMC regime !  .

The tenor of its anti BJP rants pits the TMC closer to the currently out of power CPI(M). Former Chief Minister Manik Sarkar remains the main left campaigner. In his rallies and other programme, he attacks the BJP for its total disregard of constitutional norms and alleges that there is no rule of law in the state under the saffron party. Among opposition parties, the CPIM) has been more active than others. Left activists and supporters have been associated with the agitations conducted by various disaffected groups like students, nurses, jobless youths, victims of anti social violence, etc.

BJP leaders reject the charges of misrule, mismanagement, and corruption against them by the opposition. Senior leaders have been visiting rural interior areas and checking on the local popularity/reputation of individual leaders, as the scramble for winning a candidate’s ticket to the Assembly warms up. National leaders including Prime Minister M Narendra Modi the BJP’s biggest and most popular face, and Amit Shah, Union Home Minister, are scheduled to visit the state during the campaign.

On the credit side, BJP leaders refer to the remarkable progress made in Tripura during their tenure. Tripura had never received major financial investments of this magnitude, they insist. The state’s progress in game-changing connectivity projects involving rail, road , river and air linkages, its remarkably strong IT facilities and digital outreach , its growing closer economic ties with Bangladesh — have led to a sea change in the state’s economy.

Hundreds of crores of rupees have been invested. People can expect only further improvements of such positive trends in the future. International flights would be available from Tripura soon. There are more railway connections than before including the facility to reach Kolkata form Agartala in 26 hours, a major revolution in road/rail connectivity with the Indian mainland. Further, among all NE states, Tripura has been connected more effectively with the rapidly developing economy of neighbouring Bangladesh, under NDA rule.

However, BJP’s present relations with the IPFT and the new tribal organisation Tipraland may require careful handling. Of late opinion has hardened among the indigenous tribal youth about the formation of a tribal state to be carved out of Tripura. Leaders of the IPFT had also protested against the central CAA and the proposed NRC provisions , seeking to empower non Muslim Indians settled abroad to acquire Indian citizenship in case they faced problems . While such reservation still persists, it is also a fact that of late such protests have died down.

It remains to be seen if the most recent announcements made by central BJP leaders about introducing CAA provisions in the states lead to fresh complications between the BJP and the tribals in the days ahead.

As for the Congress, some of its leaders,, feel that the BJP as well as its opponents would find it hard to achieve a simple majority and would be compelled to seek outside support to form the next government. This was the political line Congressmen had preached before, during the civic elections.

Of late the Congress party has organised protest rallies and marches against the ruling party on local issues. How the party functions under the veteran Mr, Mallikarjun Kharge as the new all India President remains to be seen. The Congress is more active than before but the political trends in Tripura suggest that if the opposition parties fight the assembly elections separately in 2023, the BJP may get the advantage of split in anti-BJP votes and come back to power for the second time. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

With the Assam Government sealing the newly opened museum devoted to ‘Miya culture’ within hours of its opening in Goalpara district, clearly the targeted marginalisation of Bengali speaking Muslim settlers is set to intensify further. Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma personally spearheads the offensive, describing the community as not indigenous.

The anti-Muslim push has continued for some time in Assam. The government has closed down some 600 official Madrasas (also old ‘tols’) where religion and related issues were being taught, overriding widespread protests. The state government then embarked on a drive to clear out illegal settlers from government –owned land at Darrang in September 2021. Two persons were killed, in an angry outburst of mass anger against the alleged ‘encroachers’

Later according to later reports, some of the evicted people showed state-based media persons documents suggesting they were not ‘illegal encroachers.’

Before dealing with the complex socio-economic dimensions of the issues relating to the evolution of the Miya culture, the timing and background to the continuous official drive against Bengali-speaking Muslims needs explaining.

Some time ago, Mr Badruddin Ajmal, leader of the All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and MP from Dhubiri in lower Assam, commented on the demolition of a few Madrasas ordered by the Government. Local police and other authorities alleged that the action had been taken against specific institutions after complaints of indoctrination among pupils and anti-national activities had been received.

Along with leaders of other opposition parties like Congress, Mr Ajmal had said that the Government was within its rights to punish wrongdoers established as criminals in the eyes of law. However, the rights of the government did not extend to demolishing entire Madrasa buildings, set up and financed by many people for specific social purposes. Through the actions of a Government seeking to punishing a few, much larger groups of people including many innocents were also being made to suffer unnecessarily.

He spoke of pursuing matters at a legal level, but the demolition drive was not continued.

At that time, Mr. Ajmal who is regarded as the unofficial spokesman for the targeted Bengal speaking Muslims in the state, had accused the BJP-ruled state government of terrorising the minorities on purpose, long before the Lok Sabha polls scheduled for 2024.

Incidentally, Mr. Sarma admits that he regarded Mr, Ajmal as a major threat to Assam’s identity.

However, Mr Ajmal saw in the official moves against Muslims by the state as a larger political warning: the minorities could hope to survive only if they surrendered to the ruling BJP party. Such a deep-rooted fear complex could well nudge the Muslim flock into voting en masse for the BJP, to ‘buy’ their personal/collective security and safety.

Politically, such a development would naturally put an end to the long term prospects of the Congress or the AIUDF as effectively functioning parties in the state. Both have been in the opposition for some time, with the AIUDF managing across the support base of the Congress, which also helped the BJP’s cause, but suffering a decline subsequently in later elections.

Meanwhile, leading intellectuals and cultural figures have commented on the emergence of the Miya phenomenon in the state. The first stirrings were noticed a few years ago when a collection of Miya poetry, the melancholy outpourings of mostly rural poor Bengali-speaking Muslim peasants, came to be published.

There arose an immediate controversy. A section of Assamiya academicians protested as they felt that the effects of such publications would be socially divisive, as their overall tone and tenor would be discordant with the cadence of mainstream literary culture.

This was contested by left wing thinkers and others who saw such writings as a new kind self expression of a traditionally oppressed group,. They reasoned that more than a literary experiment, it represented an ethnic assertion. As for the word Miya, it was nothing but a abbreviated back formation from the word ‘Assamiya,’ the word the Muslims used to describe themselves to visiting Census authorities. Therefore, there was no question of any group trying to be divisive.

On the contrary, the suppression of such efforts would amount to an interference of freedom of speech, a fundamental right for a fairly sizable community.

The idea to set up a Miya museum arose from the community itself first voiced by Congress leader Sherman Ali in 2020. It was explained that home grown items and knick-knacks traditionally produced by Bengali Muslim settlers, including agricultural implements, various garments, utensils or other products would be stored.

But the chief minister rejected the idea strongly. Items as agricultural implements on display, he insisted claiming the support of local experts and cultural authorities, were neither unique nor markedly different from similar implements used by numerous settled tribes in the state. Only the lungi was an exception, he added.

For the targeted community, not many have spoken up yet either for or against the Assam Government The strongest argument, that beleaguered community leaders could advance was that India itself was a highly complex heterogenous land of many cultures. So was the state of Assam.

However except for eminent regional thinker Mr Hiren Gohain, not many have so far spoken out for the troubled community. Dr Gohain, speaking some time ago to the media about the Miya culture phenomenon, had expressed his conviction that the ruling BJP was targeting the Muslims generally to fulfill its political agenda. But he strongly felt that if they protested too strongly, there could very well be another outburst of mass violence which would hurt everyone and the Muslims had already suffered enough! The question of timing was critically important for the people who regarded themselves as the victims in the present situation.

It remains to be seen how the major political parties, HR groups and cultural bodies in Assam react to present developments.

Among the poorest of the myriad ethnic groups in Assam, the Miya Muslims as they call themselves, while others use the word pejoratively, have mostly settled on the char –lands and unclaimed , inhospitable territories in the Brahmaputra valley and elsewhere. They sustain themselves by engaging in primary activities like agriculture or fishing. Their men folk migrate to nearby towns to do odd jobs in the real estate, transport or hospitality sectors. When the going gets tough, some migrate to other Indian states for work.

Their ancestors arrived in Assam from the 1920s or so, encouraged by the British rulers, from Mymensingh and other Eastern districts of undivided Bengal. So far, no historian has denied the well recorded accounts of their migration. By no stretch of the imagination the surviving old timers among them or their descendants could be described as ‘illegal’ encroachers. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Certain official decisions announcing better pay/allowances for their employees in the neighbouring states have caused major embarrassment to the West Bengal Government. As it is, the ruling Trinamool Congress(TMC) has for some years been facing the charge of being unsympathetic to state Government employees, because of its stubborn refusal to pay their Dearness Allowance (DA) in recent years.

Simultaneously, state Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has met with signs of suppressed anger among job seekers while speaking at official gatherings, for what they perceived as the Government’s failure to provide work for millions of educated youths. Attendees at such gatherings have not desisted expressing their disdain for the relatively low salaries on offer, while speaking to media persons. ‘We want full time salaried jobs, not temporary poorly paid official assignments’ is the main grievance voiced by jobless youths in the state.

The ruling TMC finds it hard to handle critical questions over its apparent failure to generate new jobs . To maintain its much publicised welfare schemes, it has prioritised offering freebies to the people. The Chief Minister at various times explained that free rations, medical help, education-related help etc 100 million people costs the exchequer thousands of cores of rupees. The Government often paid sarkari employees DA in the past and would do so again if possible. DA payments were not mandatory, but it was dependant on the Government’s discretion. As things stood, the Government was not in a position to pay DA to its employees, lacking adequate financial assistance from the centre.

Various state employees’ Association and Unions have opposed this stand and waged a prolonged legal battle against the TMC-run Government over the years. They have won and it now only remains for the supreme Court to announce a final verdict.

The TMC’s woes have been compounded by recent developments. A few days ago, Odisha Chief Minister MrNavin Patnaik announced the en masse of confirmation in their government jobs of altogether 57,000 employees who had been working under contracts under various departments. The ruling BJD Government he announced, was fully committed to help government employees. The State Government had made arrangements to provide an additional Rs 1300 crore annually to meet the increased expenditure on this head.

Not to be outdone, Mr Himanta Biswas Sarma, Chief Minister of BJP-ruled Assam, announced an across the board pay increase for Home Guards, in a recent statement. Their daily wages, he said would be raised from Rs 300 now to Rs 767, to strengthen them financially. The starting monthly salary for a Home guard in Assam would now be Rs 23310. They would also be eligible to secure DA and other assorted benefits.

Intriguingly, apart from a few private individually-run youtube news channels, the pro-establishment West Bengal mainstream media provided no coverage of these official announcements in the two neighbouring states!

However, informed Union Leaders associated with past agitations/movements conducted by employees in West Bengal told IPA that they would discuss these and related matters in organisational meetings to be held soon. ‘We are familiar by now with the anti-worker approach of the state Government. We have been fighting a legal battle with the present TMC Government over the non-payment of our DA for several years. Fortunately we are very close to achieving a major legal victory against the TMC government. The steps taken by the Odisha and Assam governments would certainly help us more in future legal battles against our state authorities.’ they said.

Sources within the Finance department estimate that it would cost West Bengal Government around Rs 23,000 crore to the employees by way of settling their pending DA instalments. There is simply no way for the Bengal government, already in debt on various heads to the central Government to the tune of around Rs 500,000 crore, to raise this kind of sum.

It needs stressing that when the TMC defeated the Left Front in the 2011 Assembly elections, ousting it from power, the state’s indebtedness to the centre was for around Rs 190,000 crore,.

Following the increase in the salary of Home guards in Assam, they would now be earning more than regularized police constables in West Bengal! According to official website information, the startling salary plus allowances in West Bengal currently is Rs 22670 — Rs 600 less than what a home guard would earn in Assam !

A video clip of a recent function attended by the Chief Minister at Malbazar that has gone viral, illustrated the mood of disillusionment among Bengali youths over the kind of official jobs on offer. As she made job offers to five or six youths, they remained deferential but uncharacteristically silent, embarrassing attending officials and spectators.

For the record, the CM was offering Civic volunteer jobs to the youths.

This is a special kind of work created by the TMC Government. The joining ‘volunteers’ must be between 20 and 60 years of age, physically/mentally fit and educated up to class VIII. Their jobs: to take action against illegal parking and generally helping the police to maintain law and order, under the command of their local thana ‘superiors’. No other training or qualification is necessary. The present monthly ‘salary’ is Rs 9000, raised from Rs 5500 in 2019. Probation time : two years. Working week is six days long and shifts can be for 12 hours daily.

There are around 130,000 such volunteers, mostly recruited from the student/youth organisations affiliated to the TMC, on roll. On retirement, a lump sum payment of around Rs 150,000/200,000 is assured. If there are other perks, allowances or benefits, they are not officially mentioned.

Meantime, their work hours can be unusually onerous. In addition to carrying out prolonged traffic duties in Kolkata’s hot summer and heavy rains, they also have to help the uniformed police maintain law and order when mob violence erupts. Many have been injured during violent, but there have also been public complaints about the allegedly rough and abusive behaviour on part of some volunteers .Opposition parties allege that the TMC uses these volunteers also for organizing violence during election time, to intimidate voters !

The present arrangement assures a daily income of Rs 300 for these volunteers, who must carry letters of recommendations from the local TMC leaders. Many volunteers, especially the graduates among them are naturally frustrated because even unskilled carriers of bricks in the real estate sector earn between Rs 350 to Rs 450 daily, while experienced bricklayers /wall painters earn more. Ditto, private bus drivers and conductors.

Again, bricklayers and transport workers in most other states of India earn on average between Rs 500 to Rs 800 in Kerala, Haryana or Uttar Pradesh, according to Trade Union sources.

There has been no explanation as to why daily labour earnings are so low in West Bengal, and why Government employees have not received their DA payments for years, from either the TMC Minister for Labour, or from leaders of the INTTUC, the TU wing of the party. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

In West Bengal, the administrative deadlock with the centre over the mandatory provision of 100 days work for unskilled rural people under the MNREGA scheme drags on, adding to the political concerns of the ruling Trinamool Congress(TMC) Government. This project, suspended since last December in the state, is the centrepiece of the Central government-aided social welfare schemes.

At present, Bengal remains the only state in India where the centre has stopped financing the scheme, on grounds of major corruption and mismanagement. The NDA Government ordered a halt in the works in West Bengal following an official inquiry into repeated allegations from local people and political parties in many areas

During the last few months, the centre had sent several official teams to the state on a fact-finding mission to assess the situation. Earlier the state government had routinely dismissed all complaints of corruption and other misdemeanours in the conduct of welfare projects as’ baseless’.

Mostly, opposition leaders and others accused the ruling TMC government of siphoning off money, materials and related material assistance mostly to its own supporters/activists in different districts.

The Central teams visited 12/13 out of 20-odd districts on their own, over a few weeks, without interacting much with state officials. The idea was to avoid, as is mostly usual during such official visits, a conducted tour programme arranged by the state government..

TMC leaders, sensing trouble, had taken a series of evasive steps to make sure that matters did not go out of control. Complainants alleged that the state government, even while implementing centrally financed schemes, had changed the name and at times the format of the projects, in many districts. The schemes were presented to the local people as state Government –aided projects and pushed through under different names.

This was the most serious allegation, as far as the BJP-run NDA Government was concerned, given the unconcealed political hostility that exists between the BJP and the TMC.

It needs stressing that centre took the matter more seriously than before largely through the initiative of BJP leader of the opposition in the state Assembly, the influential Mr Suvendu Adhikary. As Mr. Adhikary, (who had the unique satisfaction of defeating Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee in the 2021 state elections, causing major embarrassment to the TMC) claimed, he had supplied to ‘Delhi authorities’ many details of the ruling party’s corruptions and its alleged misdeeds in public welfare projects.

There were widely reported incidents of TMC workers frantically arranging fresh signboards and other items in interior district offices, proclaiming correctly this time that local road building, pond digging, tree planting works etc were being carried out by the centre, not by the state. There were reports too, of TMC activists ‘working’ beyond midnight in some district offices to draw up ‘fresh’ documents relating to payments etc made in connection with the projects.

The TMC’s contention, expounded by Chief Minister Banerjee herself and other state Ministers on several occasions, was that most welfare schemes were carried out on a 60;40 basis in terms of official expenditure, with the Centre as the major partner. There was no reason therefore why rural house-building programmes, for instance, should be described as the Prime Minister’s project, with no mention of the state Chief Minister. She had ordered state officials to put up the state’s own signboards/banners etc, with no mention of the centre, in the districts.

While the visiting officials sent from the national capital avoided briefing the Bengal-based press, they did meet state officials after completing their work. They drew attention of state officials of the various irregularities they had found and suggested that the state take corrective measures immediately. Further, they confirmed finding evidence of major financial corruption in some areas involving officials as well as locally elected Panchayat leaders, mostly belonging to the TMC.

They made it clear that their negative report about the state of affairs in West Bengal would lead to an immediate halt in the works. But the centre would resume its financial assistance and other support as soon as the state filed its own compliance report after having taken its own corrective measures in several areas.

The major business entrusted to state authorities, explained central officials, was to help recover the official monies misused through corruption/defalcation etc. Central team members said they were shocked to find concrete instances of corruption: there were no trees in areas where afforestation work was supposedly done, nor water bodies where new ponds were shown to have been created on paper, in some areas.

Accordingly, state officials, now having taken some corrective measures in some areas, and recovered official money to the tune of around Rs 2 crore , reported back to the NDA Government( to Union Minister for Rural Development, Mr. Giriraj Singh) that by and large order had been restored. The centre should now resume the 100 days’ rural work scheme.

Unfortunately, Delhi-based officials were not impressed by the results as reported by Bengal officials. They insisted that the state must work harder to (a) recover much larger sums that were apparently misused/ defalcated and (b) duly affix the responsibility for such corruption, identifying the persons and their reasons for misusing official funds; and (c) finally to confirm/report the official action taken by the state Government against those responsible for such a major scam that led to the misuse of the taxpayers’ money sent to help the poor vulnerable sections of the rural population.

Official sources connected with these developments said that the Bengal Government failed to deliver much to the centre regarding the demands outlined in sections (b) and (c) in the foregoing para .

However, with the deadlock currently expected to continue, political pressures on the ruling TMC Government, already reeling under massive charges of corruption and flagrant dishonesty among senior Ministers and leaders, have mounted. Panchayat elections are scheduled to be held in early 2023. There is not much time left for the parties to begin campaigning.

Once more, taking the lead from the Chief Minister herself, most TMC leaders/Ministers are attacking the BJP leadership in Delhi for ‘discriminating against Bengalis by stopping the 100 days Rural Employment guarantee scheme for the poor ‘ to cripple a non- BJP ruling party in a single state . Bengal’s Panchayat Minister Pradip Majumdar maintains that from Kolkata, the state officials had sent a detailed account of corrective steps already taken to check any further corruption in welfare schemes, but still the centre did not respond —a clear instance of the in-built bias in Delhi against the TMC Government! Mamata government is partially true as the BJP is pressing on the centre not to release funds now  so that the rural areas are starved of funds before the crucial panchayat polls in January/February next. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Prospects have brightened for a new tea auction centre (TAC) in Northeast India to be located in Tripura, following recent negotiations among local trade circles and state officials.

Earlier, Indian Tea Association(ITA) authorities had suggested that NE-based tea producers , especially those operating out of the Barak Valley districts and Tripura, use the existing Srimangal tea auction centre set up in Bangladesh , not too far from India, for exports.

The ITA had prepared a white paper some time ago spelling out in detail the case for accessing the facilities at Srimangal TAC, highlighting the logistical advantages NE producers would enjoy. From the main Barak Valley tea estates/plantations, the TAC in Bangladesh was only around 100 kilometres. Given good road conditions, consignments meant for export could be transported in quick time , ensuring fulfillment of quality maintenance requirements.

However, Tripura-based trade circles feel that the state should set up its own TAC at Dharmanagar town, which enjoys good road and rail connectivity with mainland India. It is also close to Bangladesh.

Recent media reports pointed to the built-in advantages that Tripura plantation owners could take of. The overall production of tea was growing in recent times in Tripura, the average annual figure being 9 million kilograms. The quality was declared good by experts. There were some 80 estates, gardens/plantations and factories engaged with production along with small tea growers.

Tripura tea trade circles have followed up their idea with the ITA, the Tea Board and Central Government officials. Certain preparatory steps needed to be taken urgently for their proposal to carry much weight with authorities. Among these were improving the quality of local tea production generally, with special attention paid to certain varieties, ensure a steady growth in production, setting up better market linkages , etc

Agartala trade circles were also confident that Bangladeshi tea traders too would be interested to access the proposed TAC at Dharmanagar in that it would enable them to access the growing consumers’ market in the seven NE states and India as a whole. This should help Bangladeshi tea exports to increase their sales in the larger Indian market, with its strong domestic demand.

Trade circles were also studying what could be a problem of plenty for tea producers in both countries. Last year for example, Bangladesh had produced a bumper crop of 96.50 million kilograms.

In comparison the average annual production in recent years from the three Barak valley districts was healthy, at around 43 mkgs, accounting for nearly 6% of Assam’s total production.

These figures seem to counter the initial views expressed by the ITA’s white paper calling for Indian producers to access business/exports through the Srimangal TAC. There does not seem to be much of a case for Bangladeshi producers to buy Indian varieties from Barak valley, given their own large and growing domestic harvest.

Not everyone agrees. There is also a general belief that given the export-driven approach pursued by Bangladesh as the mainstay of its economic policy, Bangladeshi producers /traders would be keen to use the facilities that would be on offer at the proposed Dharmanagar TAC. On the other hand, Bangladesh has in recent years raised the import duty for Indian varieties from 30% in 2017 to 100% at present. There are legitimate concerns whether Dhaka would agree to reduce the high cess on Indian products, especially those that compete directly with Bangladesh-produced items.

As for the production from Barak valley, the ITA had also proposed that different varieties should be sent to the major greater Kolkata market in South Bengal by using the road/rail linkages between NE India and Petrapole land customs port, through Bangladesh territory. Assam government officials, it was suggested, should take up the proposal with the centre, along with the larger scheme to use the Srimangal TAC, as a special gesture to Bangladesh to ensure better bilateral trade ties.

In both Bangladesh and India, there is general optimism in the tea trade circles that despite the many problems and issues negatively affecting export prospects in recent years, eventually the ever growing domestic demand within the very large combined population would ensure the survival of tea and the cup that cheers, for years to come. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Ever since underground leader Jiban Singha of the banned Kamtapur Liberation Organisation (KLO) reiterated the call for a separate state, there have been signs of a resumption of activity on part of its activists in Assam and North Bengal.

Northeast India media reported the arrest of two KLO activists from Kokrajhar, Assam, some days ago. Allegedly they were trying to resume their extortion-related activities and had asked for money from a local businessman who complained to the police. The reports did not make it clear whether the activists were collecting money on behalf of the proposed Kamtapur state as per the old KLO demand or functioning on their own. Despite reports of internal divisions and a shift on part of some of its cadres to other groups, the KLO has not yet ceased functioning totally, reduced as it has become.

Sources said the choice of Kokrajhar town, a major commercial/administrative centre of the  tribal Bodoland autonomous area, was significant. Presumably KLO operatives sought to exploit the traditional distrust between majority Assamiyas and minority Bodo tribes people in an ethnically sensitive region.

Whether in Assam or North Bengal, the general perception is that the KLO has ceased to be a serious secessionist organisation along with the ULFA in recent years. The covid-related death some time ago of its former leader Atul Roy had affected cadre morale. However, a recently released video apparently by the KLO, showed KLO renewing call for an independent state. It went viral but did not evoke much response from established political parties.

In it KLO strongly attacked West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who firmly opposed all demands to partition West Bengal, whether by the Gorkhas or other ethnic groups. KLO reminded the Chief Minister of Coochbehar’s ‘independent’ status even as India was being partitioned in 1947. It never formed part of West Bengal, he insisted.

However, security analysts did not ignore one part of KLO statement, wherein he claimed that his organisation had now settled its ideological differences with the greater Coochbehar Peoples Association (GCPA). Now the movement for a greater separate Coochbehar state, to be carved out of existing districts in Central/north Bengal and Southern Assam, would be resumed with the total support of the leading ethnic group of the region as a whole—the Rajbonshis.

While political leaders/parties in Assam did not comment on KLO statement, they took the views expressed by veteran north Bengal-based leader Mr. Ananta Ray, more seriously. Speaking independently of KLO chief recently, the GCPA leader whose mass following is known to be greater than others, re-endorsed the call for a separate Coochbehar state. He did not refer to the KLO.

However, observers said it could not have been a coincidence that the two non-mainstream political leaders would speak out stressing their similar tribal loyalties and demands at about the same time without prior coordination.

Evidence of this came from Assam leaders and groups expressing their firm rejection for the statehood demand for Coochbehar state. In video releases and extensive messaging on the social media, they dismissed Mr Ray as a self-styled leader based in North Bengal, with the implication that he did not enjoy much support in Assam.

Other sources however, found Mr Ray’s views and claims more intriguing. He said categorically that union Home Minister Mr Amit Shah was fully apprised of existing ethnic/tribal sentiments in the sensitive Assam-North Bengal border regions and adjacent districts. Mr Shah, he claimed, had promised a sympathetic consideration of long pending Rajbonshi political demands seeking greater fairness and justice, as a marginalised community.

Assam-based politicians did not comment on this part of Mr Ray’s observations. There was, however, a stronger reaction from West Bengal Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader Udayan Guha based in Coochbehar itself.

Strongly attacking KLO chief for his views, Guha, often described by his political opponents as a local ‘Bahubali’, said people like Singha did not have any support at all in North Bengal or elsewhere. If he or his followers tried to create trouble and unrest, the state Government and common people would decisively ‘crush’ them.

Singha retaliated pointing out that Guha was an ‘outsider’ in a Rajbonshi-dominated area and only tribal permission had enabled him to settle in Coochbehar. Guha retorted that he had been living in the district for four generations and did not need anyone’s confirmatory certification.

Present indications suggest that the tensions and agitations of ethnicity-based politics and the familiar agitational approach adopted by most local groups to highlight their old grievances in the North Bengal -Assam region, were not over yet.

Again, whether in Assam or West Bengal, no political leader could speak with any certainty as to the role of the BJP-ruled Central Government in the present situation. While the BJP had earlier supported the formation of smaller, separate states on the ground of effective governance, it had never categorically approved of the demand for a separate Gorkhaland, raising a number of questions on the issue. Nor had the BJP at the national level given any indication that the creation of a separate state of Coochbehar, to be carved out of Assam and West Bengal, was being considered seriously.

However, the party has given its general approval to the idea of a separate North Bengal state within West Bengal at the state party level, annoying the ruling TMC no end.

As matters stand, the new Coochbehar state would include parts of Malda, Murshidabad, Dinajpur, Darjeeling and other areas in West Bengal, along with parts of Goalpara, Dhubri, Bongaigaon, Bodoland, Chirang and other territories in Assam. At different times during earlier centuries, the independent kingdom of Coochbehar did rule over many of these and other territories, according to observers. (IPA Service)

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By Ashis Biswas

Recent revelations of massive corruption in West Bengal Government’s Education department, along with shocking accounts of major criminal activity in Birbhum and neighbouring districts, have shattered the state’s administrative morale. The situation has deteriorated to a point where the Government stands publicly accused of spreading ‘fake news’ about Gujarat-based private sector companies!

A couple of recent official functions, aiming to highlight the state’s success in providing jobs for lakhs of educated unemployed youths, attended by the Chief Minister, the Chief secretary and the usual galaxy of Ministers/officials, have ended in highly embarrassing fiascos in Kolkata and Kharagpur. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee had personally distributed what were purported to be letters of appointment to hundreds of job seekers who had been invited to attend the ceremonies. Many of these turned out to be ‘fake’, according to later reports, causing public resentment not restricted only among students!

One odd feature of these programmes was that the promised jobs, as state officials claimed, had been offered by private sector units in West Bengal and elsewhere in India, even abroad. However, neither at Netaji Indoor Stadium Kolkata nor at Kharagpur, there was a single representative of the private sector recruiting companies.

Questions arose in their absence as to how the state Government on its own could announce new jobs in the private sector without any visible endorsement/role for the companies involved. There was no explanation from the state Government. Apparently, around 110 out of some 1100 ‘letters’ distributed in the Kolkata function had turned out to be ‘fake’ but with complaints still pouring in, the final figure is expected to be much higher.

Incidentally, many of the so-called ‘jobs’ especially those within the state, involved delivery of goods, security and related activities, and other work allotted on a temporary basis, according to reports.

The blunder came to light after a student who had received an appointment letter urging upon him to join duties somewhere in Gujarat, phoned concerned company officials to seek further details. Surprised officials told him that they had issued no letters to anyone in West Bengal.

However, they had recruited and provided for training /upskilling schedules for students in other states. If students from West Bengal were interested, the company could consider their requests to join their projects.

The company promptly wrote to the State Government authorities about the matter in detail and suggested that the Government immediately issue necessary clarifications, preceded by a probe as to how such ‘fake’ document could be released at an official function!

To date there has been no official comment at any level from any state official, Minister or the Chief Minister (CM).

Surprisingly, the CM still attended another similar function at Kharagpur, immediately following the botch-up at Kolkata. Ms Banerjee was annoyed at the Kolkata function to hear that the letters of appointment had not yet been sent off to the recipients despite an official announcement to the contrary. Her irritation and frantic instructions to Minister Indranil Sen and the Chief Secretary caused mirth among some students.

Reports of similar mismanagement were received from the Kharagpur function as well, suggesting that state officials were yet to put their act together.

As things stand, the Chief Minister still remains determined to announce ‘at least 30,000 new jobs before the pujas begin’ in the state.

The move is important in several respects. It will be the first piece of positive news about the present situation in West Bengal and also a major boost for the ruling Trinamool Congress with only some months to go for the Panchayat elections. It will help divert public attention that remains stubbornly focused on the recent series of Bengal scams within the Education department and state administration in Birbhum and adjacent areas, involving the district TMC leadership.

Massive heaps of high currency notes amounting to Rs 50 crore and Rs 18 crore on two separate occasions have been seized by official investigating agencies like the Enforcement Directorate and the Central bureau of Investigation. In these activities the involvement of state government officials, Ministers and their followers has been established. A senior Minister and a major District leader have already been arrested along with a clutch of high departmental officers.

A Calcutta High court –ordered probe continues into these and other areas of corruption involving cattle smuggling, illegal sand mining, coal smuggling, human trafficking and other heinous crimes in West Bengal. Apart from heavyweight TMC leaders, senior IPS officials, BSF officials and others have been rounded up in Bengal and elsewhere for their involvement in organised crime during the TMC’s tenure beginning in May 2011.

To return to the fake letters of appointment, Chief Minister Banerjee has reportedly pulled up senior officials for the embarrassing turn of events. Some senior officials of the Vocational Training department involved in handling the Kolkata and Kharagpur functions have been sent to Coventry , even as a probe is on to find out where things went wrong.

According to official sources two more similar programmes are scheduled to be held at Asansol and Siliguri, where the CM would be present. However, having burnt her fingers already, Ms Banerjee has decided to adopt the virtual mode of participation.

Observers feel that the ruling TMC leaders including the CM are yet to devise an effective strategy to counter the increasing and relentless opposition campaign. It targets her family, government and the TMC party she heads, over the major issues of corruption, leading to colossal loses of public money. In part the rapidly changing political situation, where fresh arrests of TMC leaders/supporters occur regularly, makes it difficult for the TMC to fight back effectively.

The political leadership ruling the state is obviously caught on the backfoot. And with the leading light, the Chief Minister herself under attack, the entire party faces an unprecedented situation. Even as Chief Minister Banerjee and TMC General Secretary Abhishek Banerjee struggle to push back hard against the strong challenge from the Left as well as the BJP, it is an existential challenge they face at the moment.

No wonder the state administration is also caught off balance. (IPA Service)

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