By Ashis Biswas
In Assam, bad news continues for the opposition: little tangible progress has been made in pre-election seat sharing talks among major parties opposing the ruling Bharatiya Janata party(BJP), as they desperately struggle to build a united anti-Saffron front, in recent weeks.
Unless major opposition parties including the Congress, Raisor Dal, Asom Jatiya Parishad and Trinamool Congress (TMC) — not to mention the unpredictable AIUDF — settle their numerous differences more effectively to put together a minimally credible political alliance and launch a vigorous anti-BJP campaign, their prospects in the coming Lok Sabha polls look bleak.
No wonder, the ruling BJP exudes a confidence going into the 2024 LS polls that cannot normally be explained by the quality of its controversy-marred governance under Chief Minister Mr Himanta Biswa Sarma.
Yet, recent media reports from Assam tell their own story. Senior BJP Minister Mr Pijush Hazarika for instance, is quoted as saying that the opposition may not win a single seat in the coming Lok Sabha polls!
As for the Chief Minister whose future ambitions lie well beyond the Northeast region — it is common knowledge that he craves a more prominent position within the BJP central leadership preferably in Delhi — the present confusion within parties opposing him has further sharpened his aggressive anti-opposition rhetoric, especially against the Congress.
The mutual bickerings and war of words among opposition leaders, reported almost daily in great detail in the Assam-based media, naturally adds to the difficulties they face in a difficult fight against the entrenched saffron party. Their constant references to past mistakes and wrong decisions made by various opposition leaders, particularly by Congressmen, raises doubts about (a) their own anti-BJP commitment and (b) their own credibility on the critical post-elections question of pulling together as a team.
The encouraging news for the opposition, if it can be described as such, is that at least the seat sharing talks have not come to a halt, talks are continuing, though with little results.
The most assertive non Congress opposition party in Assam, the Mamata Banerjee-led TMC, has scaled down its demand from an initial five to two LS seats out of 14 up for contest. As for the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), it too is currently pressing to fight from 3 out of the five seats it had originally asked for.
However, leader of Congress opposition in the state Assembly Mr Debabrata Saikia, questioned the basis of the new demands made by both parties, even while acknowledging the AAP’s better-than-Congress performance in the recent Guwahati municipal elections. Especially referring to specific seats demanded by the parties — the TMC for instance has made a strong bid for Silchar Lok Sabha seat. As against this — Mr Saikia pointed to the situation on the ground. Neither the TMC nor the AAP had managed even to form ward committees in many areas, while LS seats naturally cover a much bigger area than Assembly seats.
In his opinion, neither party was really in a position to pressurize the BJP, mainly because they simply had no party organisation worth the name. As a major national opposition party, Congress had even in these hard times, commanded a significant presence of party supporters and loyalists all over Assam.
For his pains, Mr Saikia was attacked bitterly by both the TMC and the AAP. TMC leader Mr Ripun Bora was quoted by the media as saying that Congress must take account of ground realities all over India. Unlike the TMC, known for its strong vigorous anti BJP campaigns, the older party had neither the energy nor the will to go against the BJP in an all-out fight. It must make way for new strong regional parties that had come up in different states and defeated the BJP comprehensively.
AAP leaders pointed out that apart from winning a seat in the Guwahati municipal authority, the new party had been second in around 24 seats. This was a far better performance than what was achieved by Congress, with all its experience, past history, resources and committed support! The AAP was also running two state governments in India.
Both parties also advised Congress leaders to come off their high horse while dealing with opposition parties, and not try to dominate other parties in the name of leading an anti-BJP campaign.
However, ground realities in Assam did not necessarily show the opposition enjoying a strong position either. From within the TMC there came disturbing reports of at least nine Block Mandal committee Gen Secretaries and Secretaries in Cachar areas, as they sent in their resignation. Observers said the trend was bound to spread. The number of people/local level leaders expected to resign in different areas could well go up to 40 during the coming two weeks!
Most, according to reports, were about to join the BJP. Those resigning alleged that there had been simply no political activity on any kind during the past few months within the TMC, which was highly frustrating.
TMC leaders sought to make light of the development claiming that some of these resigning had been with the TMC for two/three years but they had originally come from the BJP!
State BJP leaders did not comment, their leaders making it apparently clear that those deserting the TMC were not in a position to make any conditions on their rejoining. And there the matter rests. (IPA Service)
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