While equity volatility has collapsed to record lows (amid the biggest increase in net VIX shorts in 9 months), positioning across bond, FX, money market, and commodity markets has been shifting massively in recent weeks.
As US Macro data has crashed to its weakest and most negative in 12 months…
US equity complacency has hit record lows…
As Speculators add to VIX shorts by the most in 9 months…
But as traders dump equity protection they are surging into safe havens like bonds. 10Y Treasury specs are the longest since Dec 2007
But aggregate Treasury complex positioning (in 10Y equivalents) shifted back into bearish territory in the last two weeks as Eurodollar shorts (bets on rate hikes) increased back near record shorts…
However, while Eurodollar shorts (rate hike bets) have increased, it appears traders are shifting the timing further out as open interest shifts notably further out and call options (implicitly betting on lower rates, not higher) are dominating trading in recent days (as economic data crashes)…
And as rate hike expectations drop, so net USD longs tumble to the lowest since September 2016…
With EUR positionig has soared back into a long position (the longest since May 2014)
As Loonie net shorts hit an all-time record high…
And Sterling net shorts are the lowest since Brexit…
And while Chinese raw materials prices have been plunging (and crude stabilizing, near lows), NatGas futures positioning has surged to a net long for the first time since December 2006…
That’s a lot of major market moves considering how ‘dead’ stocks are… for now.
