By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Delhi, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Haryana, and West Bengal have lately been emanating conflicting political signals. These states send 328 MPs in the Lok Sabha, and are inching forward with a potentially decisive election results in election 2024, which make or mar the possibility of PM Narendra Modi’s return to power for his third term.
No wonder, the BJP has focused on these states. It is reflected even in BJP’s digital political advertising. There are the top 10 states where the BJP is spending the most in political advertising as revealed in the Google Ads Transparency Centre for the period between January 1 – April 3, 2024.
These states send 328 Lok Sabha members out of which BJP had won 223 in the Lok Sabha election 2019. However, due to conflicting signals emanating from the states, BJP will have a very tense period ahead during the election. The major reason is that the party cannot now take the electorate of these states guaranteed, though party had initially hoped of gaining majority of the 105 Lok Sabha seats from these states for itself and NDA partners that the opposition political parties had won in 2019.
If BJP’s digital advertising spend is of any indication, the other five states in focus for the party are – Punjab, Karnataka, Assam, Kerala, and Tamil Nadu. These states send 114 MPs in the Lok Sabha, out of which BJP had won 36 seats. BJP had initially hoped for gain for itself and NDA partners in these states, but the political situation on the ground is yet to improve for them.
These fifteen states under BJP focus have 442 seats altogether out of which BJP had won 259 seats in the Lok Sabha election 2019. Latest political developments, which included BJP’s failure in making alliances is some states, successful seat-sharing arrangement among INDIA alliance partners, dented image of PM Narendra Modi after the publication of electoral bonds donors and recipient political parties, and his government’s tyrannical actions against opposition political parties and their leaders, have made the challenged before the BJP much more difficult that it was initially visualized.
Revelations are being made on almost daily basis as to how tainted opposition leaders are getting benefit from joining hands with PM Narendra Modi’s BJP. Today itself, a report by Indian Express, revealed how 23 of the 25 opposition leaders facing corruption prove got reprieve after crossing over to BJP since 2014. People have also taken note of how other oppositions leaders are put behind bar and facing investigations by Central agencies, who have been refusing to fall in line.
Uttar Pradesh is the top priority for BJP since it had won 62 in 2019 out of 80 seats from the state while two seats was won by its ally. A new element that has entered in the political scene in the state is Congress-SP alliance against BJP led NDA. INDIA alliance is set to give tough contest to BJP candidates on over three dozen seats. RLD has joined hands with BJP, but it is not likely to benefit them, since RLD’s secular support base among minority and farmers are likely to shift to INDIA alliance. BSP is contesting alone but considerable part of its Dalit support base has signalled to shift to INDIA alliance.
The second most important for BJP was Odisha, where the party had won 8 seats out of 21 in 2019 elections. BJP central leadership had visualized BJP-BJD alliance, but it has failed. Now, there would be tough contest between the two. It has dashed the hope of PM Modi of winning 400+ seats for NDA.
The third most important state for BJP is Bihar. JD(U) has lately switched over to BJP, but INDIA alliance has also emerged stronger. Every pre-poll survey have predicted loss of seats for NDA and BJP in Bihar from where NDA had won 39 out of 40 seats in 2019.
Fourth most focused state for BJP is Madhya Pradesh, where BJP had won 28 out of 29 seats in Lok Sabha election 2019. The November 2023 state election results have shown that its share of votes have considerably declined by 9.99 per cent compared to 2019. BJP is facing a greater challenge in even retaining its seats.
PM Modi’s fate hangs in the balance in Delhi after the Congress-AAP alliance. AAP leader and Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal have been put behind bar, and other three party leaders have already been languishing in jail. There are indications that more AAP leaders may be detained. BJP had won all 7 seats in the state in 2019 and now facing a risk to lose all in 2024.
In Maharashtra, NDA had won 41 seats in 2019, out of 48, when BJP and Shiv Sena (undivided) had contested together. Now only a divided Shiv Sena (Shinde) is with BJP. A divided NCP (Ajit) is also part of NDA. However, INDIA bloc have Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP (Sharad Pawar), that is set to offer one-on-one contest to NDA candidates in all seats, and nobody can predict with certainty what will be the result. BJP has been put on the tenterhook.
Gujarat is the home state of PM Narendra Modi, and therefore it is prestigious for the party to retain all the 26 seats it had won in 2019. However, Congress-AAP alliance and the recent discontent among the BJP leaders after denial of tickets make things a little uncertain.
In November 2023 state election in Rajasthan, BJP had lost 17.38 per cent of its vote share. Margin of votes between BJP and Congress was very narrow – BJP’s vote share was 41.69 per cent and Congress’ 39.53 per cent. BJP had won 24 out of 25 and its ally the rest one seat in 2019. Its ally has since deserted. Farmers and even Kshatriyas are angry, and also infighting in the party has increased after ticked distribution. BJP’s challenge has increased multifold.
In Haryana, BJP is facing the anger of farmers. It had won all 10 seats in 2019, however, the situation this time has become tough for the party. NDA has already broken. Congress-AAP alliance is gaining strength, and in some pockets JJP is also strong. BJP is running a risk to lose its seats this time.
In West Bengal, TMC is still strong, despite the upbeat BJP, especially after the Sandeshkhali issue. BJP had won 18 seats out of 42 in 2019 from the state. Though INDIA alliance is divided in the state, BJP way to ahead is still tough.
In Punjab, there is no scope for BJP to perform better, or even retaining its two seats that it had won in alliance with SAD in 2019. In Karnataka, BJP had won 25 out of 28 seat, which it finds impossible to retain, as the party has been thrown out of power in last years’ state election by Congress. Congress is still strong.
BJP is strong in Assam but there is nothing to gain much, since it had already won 9 out of 14 Lok Sabha seat in 2019. It can also not hope to gain in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, though PM Modi has been focusing in these two states. His focus is to somehow defeat Rahul Gandhi who is contesting from Kerala, and to spread its influence in Tamil Nadu on Hindutva plank. (IPA Service)
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