Increasingly, it seems that it is not the BJP per se, but the leaders of the constituents of the united opposition’s INDIA bloc are its worst enemies. While the core committee of the senior BJP leaders has been burning the midnight lamp finalising the list of the candidates, working out electoral strategy and collecting demographic data of the constituencies from which the party intends to field its candidates, the leaders of the INDIA bloc have been engaged in bitter fighting over share of seats in various states and are yet to finalise their strategy.
Notwithstanding the objective and subjective conditions existing in states showing downward graphs of the BJP at the elections, the INDIA bloc leaders are not exhibiting political maturity and any kind of urgency of seizing the opportunity for ensuring the defeat of the BJP. The state leaders of all the parties, including state satraps of Congress, are more concerned of their own gains and interest. For them, their immediate enemy, is the other constituent of the INDIA bloc.
Narendra Modi will formally launch his election campaign for Lok Sabha from Bihar on January 13. Besides him, at least his four cabinet ministers will be in Bihar well before he lands in the state. But the INDIA bloc leaders have yet not begun the preparation for the election. It is like a scenario where the captain of the army is already in war field, but the soldiers are still in the barracks.
Let us take the case of Bihar, the most sensitive and important state for the INDIA bloc. The confusion over the future of Nitish Kumar still continues. The local media and even websites continue to cater wrong and malicious news that Nitish may join hands with Modi; he may cross over to NDA. It is also said that Modi during his visit will announce initiation of three projects which are dear to Nitish. This is being interpreted as Modi’s tactical move to convince the people that Nitish is with him.
Ironically, Nitish has not made any statement outright denying such rumours. His passive approach to such rumours has added more weight to the confusion making rounds. People are aware that it is a part of the RSS and BJP design to create misperception about him and also malign his political image. There are some takers of the theory that he was dilly-dallying only to get a better bargain. However, election watchers feel that these rumours are intended at harming the INDIA bloc. They hold that Nitish must come out clean and put the facts straight before the people.
Since it is not happening, the alliance partners, especially the Left, are quite nonplussed. They are unable to frame their electoral strategy. While the leaders of the INDIA bloc are in a flux, Modi and his lieutenant Amit Shah have prepared a blue print to further polarise the electorate, ahead of the election. According to saffron sources, Modi will launch three programmes after January 22 and accomplish these by February 22. This one month is going to be very crucial. If Modi manages to accomplish his mission, it is certain that he would become the prime minister for the third time. No one can stop his ascendance.
The three programmes are: every house in the country will be sent earthen Jyoti (lamp) that will burn till February 22; the second programme is operation of the Citizenship Amendment Act, and the third is invoking of the Uniform Civil Code. In all probability, the UCC will be launched after January 30, once Uttarakhand implements it on that day. Modi and Shah would nonetheless take some time to watch the peoples’ reaction, especially of the Muslims.
It is irrelevant whether these three issues would succeed in polarising the Hindus; what troubles most is complete lack of cognisance by the INDIA leaders of the impact of the public bickering amongst them. It would be naive to believe they ought to not be aware of the impending threat and the machinations of the saffron ecosystem. But to their peril, they are yet to take this challenge seriously and evolve a definitive counter-narrative.
Some INDIA bloc leaders have their own illogical explanation. They argue that the level of electoral saturation for BJP is full. India has 80 per cent of Hindu population even then the BJP got only 35 per cent votes. If the rest 45 per cent did not vote for it even in the wake of nationalism uproar in 2019, they are not likely to vote for BJP this time. But this explanation is self-defeating. Around five months back, RSS and BJP leadership made it abundantly clear that they were planning to win the 160 seats, which they had lost in 2019. They are also planning to improve their performance on 100 seats, which they won, but not with convincing margin.
It is really beyond comprehension that how could the INDIA leaders neglect this aspect of the BJP’s strategy. While Modi and Shah are working on these seats for long, the constituents of INDIA bloc are indulging in war of words on seat-sharing. The Mumbai meeting of INDIA had already assigned the task of resolving the disputes arising over seat-sharing, but some of the leaders who are not at all supposed to open their mouths on this issue, are hurling accusations against other constituents simply for gaining publicity, without bothering how that would be used by the saffron ecosystem to smear the INDIA bloc amongst the people.
Bihar has 40 Lok Sabha seats. Of these 39 were won by the NDA camp in 2019. At that time BJP with 23.58 per cent of votes had won 17 seats., JD(U) as NDA ally with 21.81 per cent had won 16 seats and Lok Janshakti Party n also an ally of NDA with 7.86 per cent had secured 6 seats. The Congress had won only one seat. Lalu Yadav’s Rashtriya Janata Dal with 15.36 per cent failed to win even one seat.
For 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the JD(U) intends to field its 16 sitting members. RJD had staked its claim for 16 seats. For the remaining 8 seats, four constituents would be competing amongst themselves. Astonishingly even after aware of the ground realities that Congress has no base in the state and it has been virtually surviving at the borrowed strength of RJD and JD(U), its leaders have staked claim on eleven seats. On the contrary, the CPI(ML) which has a strong base and has 12 legislators in the assembly have left the issue to the core committee of the Mahagathbandhan.
In 2020, BJP and JD(U) had contested Bihar assembly election under NDA. In that election BJP had fielded 110 candidates and won 74 seats while JD(U) contested 115 seats and bagged 43 seats. The five secular and left parties Congress, RJD, CPI(ML), CPI and CPI(M) went to the polls under Mahagathbandhan. RJD had contested 144 seats and won 75, Congress fielded its candidates on 70m seats but could manage to get elected on 19 seats. From this aspect, the performance of CPI(ML) was better. It contested 18 seats and won 12 while CPI and CPI(M) won two seats each.
In the backdrop of their performance either in the Lok Sabha or Assembly, the demand of Congress is strange and unrealistic. They ought to be objective. Some senior Congress leaders are reluctant to climb down from their high horse and are busy telling the RJD and JD(U) leaders to concede to their demand. It is worth referring to one important suggestion of the Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav, who came out with the suggestion that the seat-sharing process must be finalised just ahead of Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Nyay Yatra is launched. It would motivate the candidates and the parties to connect with the voters of their respective areas and constituencies.
His suggestion has come in the backdrop of speculations that the constituents may not feel quite enthusiastic to accompany Rahul in their own states. Apprehensions are also expressed that Bharat Nyay Yatra instead of strengthening the INDIA will only help strain Congress’s ties with key allies. Rahul Gandhi is hoping for a reversal of the Congress party’s fortune in eastern India, but this may increase tensions among its allies. The absence of clarity about which regional party should lead the Yatra has also complicated the situation.
The battle for 2024 is going to be tough even for INDIA bloc. The “one seat, one Opposition candidate” formula looks unfeasible. Even if the INDIA leaders manage to sort out the issue, the candidates would be left with very small time to reach out to the voters. Resource wise too, they are not in a sound state. The electoral scenario is likely to further complicate with BSP of Mayawati deciding to field its candidate in at least five seats in Bihar. The presence of the BSP candidates would simply damage the electoral prospect of the INDIA bloc.
Some Congress leaders, as usual, have been projecting the success of the Bharat Jodo Yatra to reinforce their claim of more seats. They claim that the padayatra led by Rahul Gandhi was a historic success, and underlined that Rahul was the sole leader capable to defeat the BJP, naturally they should be given leverage. Undeniably, Rahul faces a tough challenge in Bihar, which is home to two strong allies, the JD(U) and RJD. Even Left parties like the CPI-ML and CPI are their partners in the state.
The situation has further been complicated by the media which has launched a vile propaganda against Nitish. Little doubt Congress leadership should step in and cannot continue to be passive watchers. Since state Congress is weak, when Rahul’s yatra enters the state, it will rely heavily on the support of its allies. An unpredictable Nitish would harm Rahul’s mission instead than adding strength. He must clear the muddle. (IPA Service)
The post Unpredictable Nitish Is Responsible For Weakening Of INDIA Bloc first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.
