By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Ghosi assembly bypoll has signalled a significant change in Uttar Pradesh politics. Congress joined Samajwadi Party’s election campaign, the first of its kind after the formation of INDIA opposition alliance. The election is scheduled for September 5, and it is the firs one-on-on electoral battle in the state between the opposition INDIA alliance and the NDA.
Since INDIA alliance was formed for Lok Sabha election 2024, and not for the Vidhan Sabha elections, and therefore such a joint election campaign by INDIA alliance partners for a Vidhan Sabha seat is an important development. Such a political gesture at state level has become all the more significant in the light of BJP’s latest move for ‘one nation, one election’ aiming at disrupting the opposition move of unity at national level by indirectly fuelling regional aspirations of the political parties in opposition that makes them somewhat hesitant in joining hands at state level. If elections are held together at the Centre and States, BJP leadership hopes, opposition unity would become almost impossible.
What we have been seeing in Ghosi Vidhan Sabha bypoll might be very disconcerting to the BJP and NDA partners. “The country wants change. The INDIA alliance in going to defeat the BJP. The Samajwadi Party and its allies are fully prepared for the elections,” said Samajwadi Pary (SP) president Akhilesh Yadav, and this statement seems to have some truth. Unity can be seen in the Ghosi bypoll at the state level, while INDIA alliance is likely to finalise their seat sharing arrangement for the Lok Sabha election 2024 by September 30.
Uttar Pradesh has always been the most important state for Lok Sabha election since it sends largest number of seats in the Lok Sabha. Out of 80 seats in the state, BJP had won 62 in 2019 Lok Sabha election while 2 seats were won by its ally Apna Dal (S), that made the NDA tally from Uttar Pradesh to 64. BJP had won 303 seats in the entire country, while 272 seats are required to form government in New Delhi. Uttar Pradesh was single largest state from where the BJP got 62 seats, followed by 28 from Madhya Pradesh, 26 from Gujarat, 25 from Karnataka, 24 from Rajasthan, and 23 from Maharashtra. At a time when BJP’s prospects in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Karnataka are on the decline and uncertain in Maharashtra, PM Narendra Modi can’t even dream of returning for the third term if his party loses in Uttar Pradesh.
It is in this backdrop the political stake of PM Modi or BJP is the biggest in Uttar Pradesh. It makes the stake of INDIA alliance proportionately the biggest, and hence, it requires to offer one-on-one contest to BJP and NDA candidates in all 80 seats in the state. Seat sharing arrangement between the INDIA alliance partners is therefore of paramount importance, and that too in shortest possible time, with an open mind to be ready with a plan to make seat sharing arrangement at Vidhan Sabha level too, considering the latest “one nation, one election” move of PM Modi.
INDIA alliance has already decided to make seat sharing arrangement at state level. SP will have major say in the state since it is the strongest political party in opposition against the ruling BJP in the state. It had a vote share of 32.06 per cent in the Vidhan Sabha election 2022. In the 2019 Lok Sabha election its vote share was only 18.11 per cent, and that can be explained in the light of Mahagathbandhan in which BSP was also participant.
BSP at present is neither with NDA nor with INDIA alliance. It’s vote share has been declining fast, that came down to 12.88 per cent in 2022 Vidhan Sabha election from 19.43 per cent in 2019 when it was part of Mahagathbandhan deriving benefit from the alliance. The real picture on ground is that it had even forfeited deposits in 287 Vidhan Sabah constituencies while winning only one seat. Even though it has considerable presence in 116 Vidhan Sabha constituencies which the INDIA alliance would need to take into consideration.
No doubt, BJP’s political fortune is on the decline in Uttar Pradesh. Its share of vote declined in Vidhan Sabah election 2022 to 41.29 per cent from 49.98 per cent in Lok Sabha election 2019. In the Lok Sabha election 2019 it had a swing of 7.35 per cent in its favour but had lost 9 seats, which meant the swing was only limited in certain seats and was not spread across the state. By 2022, there was a swing of 8.69 against it that caused a loss of 57 seats with even 3 forfeitures of deposits. It has now 255 seats in the Vidhan Sabha. As per the BJP’s own assessment, 4 of its 62 current seats are endangered, while 14 seats out of 71 they had won in 2014 and lost in 2019 are still out of their reach.
Presently, INDIA alliance has chiefly three parties in Uttar Pradesh – SP, Congress, and RLD. As per the current strength in the Vidhan Sabha SP had won 111 seats, Congress 2, and RLD 8 seats in 2022.NCP, RJD, SBSP, PSP (Lohiya) and AD(K) were part of SP+ alliance. With emergence of INDIA alliance AAP, Congress, Left and other political parties would be in principle offering joint candidate in 2024 Lok Sabha election, which remains a difficult task to be translated on the ground, the success of which may lead to the road to power in New Delhi, and the failure may block the alliances prospects. (IPA Service)
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