The European Commission’s latest crop assessment, published on 23 October, confirms that summer crop yields remain below their five-year averages across much of the European Union. Persistent moisture shortages have also disrupted preparations for the next growing season, particularly across Hungary and western Romania.
Commission projections put EU maize production for 2026/27 at 48.5 million tonnes, approximately 20% below the five-year average. Maize imports are expected to reach 25 million tonnes, an increase of 5.7 million tonnes from the preceding marketing year, reflecting reduced domestic supplies.
Hungary faces particularly severe losses. Harvest expectations have deteriorated as successive periods of high temperatures and insufficient rainfall damaged plants during flowering and grain development. Estimates compiled by European grain traders indicate that Hungarian maize production could fall to approximately 1.9 million tonnes, roughly half the previous year’s output.
Romania, another major agricultural producer, is experiencing similar pressures, although conditions vary substantially between growing regions. Western districts have suffered pronounced moisture deficits, while production elsewhere has benefited from comparatively favourable weather.
The deterioration has significant implications for livestock producers, feed manufacturers and agricultural traders dependent on maize supplies. Reduced domestic availability increases reliance on imports and exposes buyers to international grain prices, transport costs and currency movements.
Farmers are responding by changing planting decisions. Maize requires substantial moisture during critical development stages, making it vulnerable when heatwaves coincide with depleted soil reserves. Sunflowers, which generally tolerate dry conditions better, are becoming an alternative in affected districts.
The US Department of Agriculture identified declining profitability, disappointing yields and competition from global suppliers as additional reasons for Europe’s shrinking maize acreage. Its agricultural assessments also highlighted the movement towards sunflower cultivation as growers reassess drought exposure.
Hungary’s difficulties extend beyond individual harvests. An assessment by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit estimated that deteriorating weather conditions reduced the country’s overall grain production forecast by approximately 3.1 million tonnes between June and September, representing an estimated €723 million in lost crop value.
Across Europe and Britain, the same assessment calculated that grain production forecasts declined by 16.7 million tonnes during that period, with potential losses valued at €3.2 billion. France recorded the largest estimated reduction, followed by Hungary.
The Commission’s Joint Research Centre identified exceptional heat and rainfall shortages as principal causes of the damage. Temperatures exceeding 35 degrees Celsius, combined with unusually warm nights, accelerated plant development and reduced the period available for grain formation.
Rainfall arriving towards the end of summer provided limited relief because much of the damage had already occurred. The Joint Research Centre found that moisture shortages had impaired fertilisation, restricted biomass accumulation and accelerated the ageing of crops, leaving smaller and fewer maize cobs.
The agricultural impact has extended to pasture and fodder production. Reduced grassland growth has constrained feed availability for livestock, adding financial pressure on farms already facing higher operating costs and weaker crop revenues.
European Commissioner for Agriculture and Food Christophe Hansen has acknowledged the difficulties confronting farmers and emphasised the importance of strengthening agricultural resilience. EU agricultural policies provide support for improved water management, crop diversification and farming practices designed to preserve soil moisture.
Irrigation offers some protection, but its effectiveness depends on reliable water supplies and affordable infrastructure. Farmers operating without adequate irrigation face particularly difficult decisions about whether to continue cultivating maize or allocate more land to crops with lower water requirements.
The European Commission expects total cereal production to reach approximately 262 million tonnes in 2026/27, down 9.6% from the previous year. Wheat has proved comparatively resilient, with projected production of 124.2 million tonnes, while barley output is expected to exceed its five-year average.
Romania’s barley harvest has been particularly strong, illustrating the differences between winter cereals and summer crops exposed to the most intense heat. Earlier harvesting schedules helped some winter crops escape the worst conditions affecting maize.
Attention is now shifting towards autumn planting. The October crop bulletin identified continuing soil moisture deficits across Hungary, western Romania and neighbouring countries, where winter cereal establishment and rapeseed emergence have been uneven.
Rapeseed sowing has been particularly affected in Hungary, Slovakia and Croatia. Although rainfall improved conditions in some districts, the Joint Research Centre found that additional precipitation was necessary to support crop establishment before winter dormancy.
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