India’s economy could face a reduction of up to 0.6% in its Gross Domestic Product due to proposed tariff increases by the United States, according to a recent analysis by Goldman Sachs. The financial institution’s report highlights the potential economic repercussions for India if the US implements higher tariffs on imported goods.
The analysis outlines three potential scenarios under the US administration’s “Fair and Reciprocal Plan”: country-level reciprocity, product-level reciprocity, and inclusion of non-tariff barriers. In the country-level reciprocity scenario, the US would elevate tariffs on all imports from a specific nation to match the average tariff differential. For India, this could mean an increase of approximately 6.5 percentage points in effective US tariff rates on Indian imports. The product-level reciprocity approach would involve matching tariffs on individual products, potentially leading to an 11.5 percentage point rise in tariffs on Indian goods. The inclusion of non-tariff barriers, such as administrative hurdles and import licensing requirements, presents a more complex scenario, making precise impact assessments challenging.
Goldman Sachs’ report emphasizes that India’s export exposure to the US is relatively modest, with exports to the US accounting for about 2% of India’s GDP in 2023. However, when considering indirect exposure through exports to other countries reliant on US demand, India’s domestic activity exposure rises to approximately 4% of GDP. This broader exposure suggests that the potential impact on India’s GDP growth could range from 0.1 to 0.6 percentage points, depending on the specific tariff measures implemented.
The bilateral trade relationship between India and the US has seen significant growth over the past decade. India’s goods trade surplus with the US expanded from $17 billion in the fiscal year 2014 to $35 billion in fiscal year 2024. This increase is largely attributed to a surge in exports of electronic items, bolstered by initiatives like the Production-Linked Incentive scheme introduced in 2020.
Despite the potential challenges posed by increased US tariffs, India’s central bank governor, Shaktikanta Das, has expressed confidence in the country’s economic resilience. He highlighted India’s substantial foreign exchange reserves, amounting to $676 billion, and the robust growth trajectory of the economy as key factors that equip the nation to navigate global disruptions, including those arising from protectionist trade policies.
The US administration’s move towards implementing reciprocal tariffs is part of a broader strategy to address perceived trade imbalances. A memo signed by President Donald Trump directs the Commerce Department and the US Trade Representative to develop plans for adjusting tariff rates to mirror those imposed by trading partners. These measures are set to be introduced gradually over the coming weeks and months, with an initial focus on countries maintaining significant trade surpluses with the US or those engaged in practices deemed unfair.
While the intended goal of these tariffs is to protect domestic industries and reduce trade deficits, there are concerns about potential unintended consequences. Analysts warn that such measures could lead to increased costs for consumers and businesses, supply chain disruptions, and retaliatory actions from affected trading partners, potentially escalating into broader trade conflicts.
