Opposition Charting Out Its Roadmap To Oust Narendra Modi From Power

By Sushil Kutty

The assumption is general elections 2024 will see people voting with their feet and it will be Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swansong whether he likes it or not. The plethora of opposition parties are sure Modi was on his last legs when he addressed the US Congress on June 23. For them, Modi’s overseas popularity is a chimera born out of a mirage.

Meaning Modi will be out on his back mid-2024 as he cannot be trusted any longer to be Prime Minister. However, the reality is, it is not easy to defeat Modi and this does not have anything to do with opposition unity. General elections 2004 was one time when the electorate voted with their feet and Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee’s ”India Shining” was summarily rejected. Similarly, 2014 saw voters, enough of them to make a difference, vote with their feet to put Narendra Modi in the hot-seat.

A consolidation of only 31 percent Hindu votes helped the BJP. General elections 2019 did not see the electorate vote with their feet to remove Modi. Instead, Prime Minister Narendra Modi got a second term with a bigger mandate, 37 percent Hindu votes.

Now, with less than 11 months left for general elections 2024, the entire lot of opposition parties – barring a few – are banking on the premise that Modi can be defeated if the opposition parties nominate one ”single & strongest” candidate to take on the BJP candidate in each of the 500+ constituencies.

Yup, one undefeatable opposition candidate against every BJP candidate. The belief is opposition parties coming together on a single platform with the resolve to nominate the single most powerful candidate in each constituency will deliver Modi’s head on a platter. Modi, who garnered 31 and 37 percent in 2014 and 2019, will not have a chance against the 67-70 percent people who did not vote for Modi.

The premise is the heads of opposition parties, like for example Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) speaks for the ‘Kurmi’ caste and Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD speaks for Yadavs. Ditto Akhilesh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party, each have their own castes to vote for them. The question is, will the voters of these castes vote with their feet for the chosen opposition candidate in each constituency?

The answer is they will not because they are caste-based parties and it will be difficult for them to transfer their caste’s votes to each other when the time comes. Not when the rivalry is visceral and goes back to a hoary past. Mayawati’s caste will not vote for Akhilesh Yadav’s caste ever and ditto the other way round even if the Opposition enters one consensus candidate for each constituency.

Political parties and politics of caste go hand in hand and are solely responsible for the thriving caste-based politics in India. In fact, the annihilation of the caste system remains an Ambedkarite dream. What hasn’t been factored in is the mood of the nation. It is being believed that political parties need not have to depend on caste to regain power.

Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati are best examples of politics delivered from the caste-cauldron. They’re perpetrators of a deplorable practice. Whether Samajwadi Party or Bahujan Samaj Party, it is a case of castes voting with their feet. It is only rarely that these people overlook caste-differences and together vote with their feet.

Voting with your feet means you are showing your opinion of something by asking in a certain way. When Modi was elected in 2014, the electorate voted in a manner which got him victory. Fact is people do not vote for political parties. They vote for caste. The belief that the coming together of supreme leaders of different parties on a single stage will ensure opposition unity and purpose to change the status quo is imagination running riot.

The assumption is that just like people voted with their feet to install Modi at the helm of affairs, voters will in 2024 vote with their feet to oust Modi. Then, and thereafter, the catfight will begin over who is to become Prime Minister, from which party. Till then, hold the horses and do not get upset.

There’s a larger point. Look at the difference between 1977 and today, 2023. There weren’t caste-based parties in ’77 even if people voted on caste lines. The candidate’s caste mattered. But then came caste-based regional parties and since then there’s chaos. The opposition conclave was a travesty of unity because caste differentiation remains the bedrock for these parties. There cannot ever be opposition unity in the true sense. Not in the caste cauldron called India. (IPA Service)

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