By Dr. Gyan Pathak
In contradiction to the claim of the Modi government of improvement in the labour market, latest Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) data pertaining to the formal sector shows a downturn. Quality jobs generation declined sharply by 16.7 percent in October 2023 compared to the September figure, a 7-month low. The number of new monthly subscribers of EPF declined to 772,084 in October from 926,934 in September, and 757,792 in March 2023.
The fall in job generation in the formal sector, which is the only sector in which social security coverage is available, means India’s workforce is being forced into the informal sector and thereby losing social security. Government data shows 90 percent of the employed are “informal”. Central Trade Unions, especially AITUC, have claimed it is “97 percent” as even formal sectors are allowed by the Modi government to have informal workers on contracts, outsourcing, or even as informal casual workers preventing them from availing any social security coverage.
The EPFO data shows that net payroll in October was 1529277, as against 1513741 September, which is a marginal increase in the total number of workers covered under the EPFO. The number was 1552940 in September 2017, and hence the current data shows marked deterioration.
Data shows that the share of youth between the age 18 and 28 years of age marginally increased to 68.7 per cent in October from 68.5 percent in September, and in the age group of above 35 years of age declined to 15.9 percent from 16.1 percent. Share of women increased marginally to only 26.4 percent as against 25.2 percent.
The total number of EPF subscriber in October in the age group Less than 18 was 4739, in 18-21 was 249771, in 22-25 was 202668, in 26-28 was 78445, in 29-35 was 113227, and in more than 35 years of age was 123234. The corresponding figures in September were 6309, 302960, 240064, 91984, 135660, and 149957 respectively.
The number of subscribers exited from the EPF in October were 353052 and the number of members who had left and rejoined and resubscribed were 1110245, which shows the continued volatility in the labour market.
The EPFO data is just a revelation of the worsening job market scenario even in the formal sector of the country. The annual report on the PLFS 2022-23 released in October 2023 had revealed the all-India unemployment rate on the ‘current weekly status basis’(CWS) at 5.1 percent in 2022-23. Further the latest quarterly bulletin of PLFS released on November 29, 2023 shows that unemployment rate (CWS) in July-September 2023 was 6.6 per cent for urban India. It shows that unemployment rate were at elevated level in both rural and urban areas.
However, the data released by the Centre of Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) shows that the unemployment rate in the country in November 2023 was as high as 9.16 per cent. It was only little less than 10.05 per cent in October which was at a 29-month high. The rural unemployment rate eased to 9.05 per cent in November from 10.82 percent the previous month, while the urban unemployment rate rose to 9.39 per cent from 8.44 per cent. The unemployment rate as on December 22 on a 30-day moving average basis was 9.1 per cent as per CMIE data.
Further, the CMIE data showed that the labour participation rate (LPR) in November decreased to 41.11 percent from 41.65 per cent in October. In urban areas, the LPR declined to 38.85 per cent in November from 39.36 percent in October, and in rural India, it fell to 42.27 percent from 42.83 per cent.
The data shows that India’s labour market has been worsening, while the Modi government goes on claiming within the parliament and outside that the labour market is improving. PM Narendra Modi has been even distributing appointment letters to the unemployed in thousands only to show that he and his government care for the workforce and the unemployed. However, the number of jobs that are available both in the formal and informal sector, including the government, is far less than the requirement of 2 crore jobs every year.
During the election campaigns for 2014 Lok Sabha, PM Modi had promised first 1 crore new jobs every year, and then decent jobs to all hands to work, which was interpreted as 2 crore jobs every year. Against this promise, the unemployment rate was revealed to have risen to 6.1 per cent just before the 2019 Lok Sabha election, which was 45 years high. The era of joblessness continued thereafter until now, just before Lok Sabha election 2024, while the government goes on claiming that labour market in the country is improving.
In fact, the Modi government has failed to support the unemployed and refused to bring even a National Employment Policy even after a decade. It was recommended in the 45th session of the Indian Labour Conference (ILD) held on May 17-18, 2013. The highest tripartite body ILC’s 46th session was held in 2015, and no session has been organized thereafter. It was ignored in 2019 and in 2020. The government in violation to tripartism, brought four controversial labour codes which CTUs label as anti-worker and pro-Corporate. (IPA Service)
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