By T N Ashok
NEW DELHI: As the war in Iran deepens and flames spread across West Asia’s energy corridors, India finds itself confronting an uncomfortable truth: its economic vulnerabilities are once again tied to oil tankers navigating distant waters. Rising crude prices, disrupted shipping lanes, soaring aviation fuel costs, fears over fertiliser imports, and nervous markets have pushed the Narendra Modi government into crisis-management mode.
Sensex tumbled across the Bombay Stock Exchange and National Stock exchange a Rupee cascaded to its lowest point at Rs 95.31 raising imports costs and increased outflow of foreign exchange carefully accreted over the years.
But what transformed a geopolitical shock into a political storm was not merely the war itself — it was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s extraordinary public appeal asking Indians to voluntarily embrace austerity.
The Prime Minister urged citizens to avoid foreign travel for a year, reduce fuel consumption, stop buying gold, cut dependence on imported goods, use less cooking oil, and even revive work-from-home practices reminiscent of the Covid lockdown years. The messaging was intended to prepare the country for prolonged instability in global energy markets.
To critics, the speech sounded less like wartime leadership and more like an admission that the government had lost control of the economic fallout.“This is proof of failure,” declared Rahul Gandhi, accusing the government of once again transferring the burden of crisis management onto ordinary citizens. “Every time, they shift responsibility onto the people so they can escape accountability themselves.”
The political attack struck a nerve because India’s vulnerabilities were already visible long before Modi’s appeal. Brent crude has crossed the psychologically dangerous $100-per-barrel mark. More than 20 commercial ships have reportedly been attacked across regional sea lanes. Nearly 1,900 vessels remain stranded amid escalating maritime risks. Aviation turbine fuel prices have surged. Airlines are raising fares. Fertiliser supply chains are under strain. Insurance costs for shipping have jumped sharply.
India imports over 85 percent of its crude oil requirements. A prolonged disruption in the Gulf threatens not merely fuel prices but the architecture of India’s inflation management itself.
The government insists there is no immediate emergency. Officials say India possesses crude reserves sufficient for around 60 days, extending to roughly 74 days with strategic petroleum reserves included. Refineries continue operating at peak capacity. Fuel and LPG supplies remain stable for now. The Centre has repeatedly denied rumours of shortages or lockdowns.
Yet the very fact that the Prime Minister publicly invoked the memory of Covid-era restrictions alarmed businesses and consumers alike.
The comparison was politically disastrous. During a speech in Telangana, Modi reminded Indians how they had adapted during the pandemic through virtual meetings, online conferences and reduced travel. “The demands of the times are such that if we restart these systems, it will be in the national interest,” he said.
The statement instantly triggered memories of the 2020 lockdown — a period still associated in public consciousness with migrant distress, economic collapse and abrupt executive decision-making.
Opposition leaders seized the opening with barely concealed fury. Akhilesh Yadav mocked the timing mercilessly, noting that the “crisis” seemed to have emerged only after the conclusion of state elections. “As soon as the elections ended, the crisis came to mind,” he said, describing the BJP itself as the country’s greatest crisis.
The attack was not merely rhetorical. Opposition parties framed the government’s austerity appeal as evidence that the celebrated “five-trillion-dollar economy” narrative had collided with geopolitical reality.“If so many restrictions have to be imposed, how will the five-trillion-dollar economy happen?” Yadav asked.
The contradiction was glaring. For years, the Modi government projected India as an emerging global power insulated from international shocks through decisive leadership and strategic diplomacy. Yet the Iran conflict has exposed the extent to which India’s growth story remains hostage to imported energy and external instability. Critics also highlighted what they called a deep hypocrisy at the heart of the government’s messaging.
While citizens were being urged to avoid foreign travel and conserve fuel, Modi himself embarked on a six-nation diplomatic tour. Opposition leaders contrasted appeals for austerity with images of massive BJP election rallies, chartered flights, elaborate roadshows and fuel-intensive campaigns conducted only weeks earlier.
AAP leader Sanjay Singh sharpened the contrast with biting sarcasm: citizens were told to save petrol while the ruling establishment burned through resources with impunity. Congress spokesperson Atul Londhe Patil accused the government of strategic incoherence, arguing that India’s distancing from Iran and Russia had weakened its energy security precisely when stable oil relationships mattered most.
Underlying the political fury is a larger strategic debate over whether India adequately prepared for such a moment.
For years, New Delhi balanced delicate relationships between the United States, Israel, Iran and Gulf monarchies. India managed to maintain access to discounted Russian crude after the Ukraine war while simultaneously deepening strategic ties with Washington. But the Iran conflict threatens to destabilise that balancing act.
Shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz — through which a significant portion of global oil flows — present perhaps the gravest risk. Even if India secures crude supplies, transportation costs and insurance premiums could sharply inflate import bills. The weakening rupee compounds the pressure further.
Already, economists fear that sustained oil prices above $100 could reignite inflation just as India was attempting to consolidate post-pandemic recovery. Higher transportation and fertiliser costs could ripple through food prices. Airlines have begun passing fuel surcharges onto consumers. Manufacturing sectors dependent on imported chemicals and energy inputs are bracing for shocks.
In many ways, the government’s appeal reflects a growing recognition that demand suppression may become necessary if the crisis intensifies.
But politically, the messaging has proved perilous because it reverses a decade-long narrative of abundance and resilience. Modi rose to power promising efficiency, economic confidence and muscular governance. Asking citizens to avoid buying gold — a deeply ingrained financial and cultural asset in Indian households — symbolised something larger than conservation. It signalled anxiety.
And anxiety spreads quickly in a country where inflation remains emotionally and politically explosive.
The government has attempted to reassure citizens through visible high-level engagement. Modi chaired repeated meetings of the Cabinet Committee on Security. Ministries have coordinated contingency planning across oil, fertiliser, logistics and agriculture sectors. Indian nationals stranded in Iran have been evacuated through neighbouring countries. Officials insist essential supplies remain secure.
Yet the opposition senses an opportunity to puncture the BJP’s carefully cultivated image of invulnerability.
The attacks are increasingly framed not merely as criticism of crisis management but as an indictment of governance style itself — centralised, personality-driven and dependent on spectacle. Critics argue that India’s strategic vulnerabilities were ignored while political capital was invested in electioneering and image management.
To them, the austerity appeal revealed something deeper: that behind the optics of confidence lies an economy still dangerously exposed to external shocks. That perception may matter as much as the crisis itself.
For now, India is not facing shortages, rationing or economic collapse. But the government’s public messaging has already altered the national mood. Citizens are hearing words rarely associated with the Modi era: restraint, sacrifice, conservation and uncertainty.
And in politics, tone often becomes reality long before facts do. The Iran war may be unfolding thousands of kilometres away, but its aftershocks are now reverberating through Indian kitchens, petrol stations, airports and political battlefields alike. (IPA Service)
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