By Dr. Gyan Pathak
As the Vidhan Sabha election to the five states – Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram – are approaching, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has upped the ante against both the Congress and its leader Rahul Gandhi, not against any other party or leader in opposition, betraying his heightened political threat perception from, though he had boasted for “Congress Mukta Bharat” and formerly brushed aside Rahul Gandhi as someone politically insignificant and merely a child (pappu).
PM Modi has not only made scathing attack on the state government of Rajasthan led by the Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot on Saturday, but also labelled Congress as “Loot kidukan, jhoothka bazaar” (Shop of loot, market of falsehood), and singled out Rahul Gandhi for political attack, apart from severely criticizing the Congress leadership in a public rally at Bikaner on Saturday, July 8, 2023.
The reason could not be mistaken, especially after BJP’s debacle in Karnataka in May 2023 elections in which the Congress under the leadership of Rahul Gandhi has thrown the ruling BJP even when PM Modi was heavily campaigning for his party. The election result shows that the political trend in the state, if continued, would make the BJP lose 17 out of 25 Lok Sabha seats in 2024 elections which it had won in the 2019 Lok Sabha election. It should be recalled that there are 28 Lok Sabah seats in Karnataka.
It was a great setback for him personally and his party in the background of losing states like Himachal Pradesh, and the bleak prospect in the forthcoming Vidhan Sabha election of the five states by the end of 2023, which are seen as semi-final for the Lok Sabha election 2024, since the results of the elections this year is bound to have impact on the result of the general election for the next year, in which both the BJP and PM Modi would be seeking for their third term.
While showing BJP the door in Karnataka, not only general and OBC category people, but also the STs and SCs unequivocally showed that they have been deserting the BJP and are no longer mesmerized on the much-touted Modi’s charisma. It has necessitated Modi to restore his lost charisma first, before winning any elections. BJP lost large number of reserved seats for SCs and STs in Karnataka, and it runs the same risk in all these five states after the incident of a BJP leaders’ urinating on an Adivasi in Madhya Pradesh that has angered them across the all the states.
Manipur ethnic riots have further exposed the nefarious design of the BJP and its majoritarian politics that left many dead. Its specter will be haunting the Adivasi communities across the nation in general and more particularly in Mizoram in the north-east reason where the lone MP seat is reserved for ST. The seat is presently held by Mizo National Front (MNF) that has been part of NDA since 2014. However, it is most likely that BJP would have to struggle to keep the NDA united there. The term of the Mizoram Vidhan Sabha is to expire on December 2023. The situation was till recently in favour of the NDA, but the situation is fast changing against it.
In Telangana, BRS is too strong for the BJP. The term of its Vidhan Sabha is to expire in January 16, 2024. There are 17 Lok Sabha seats from the state and BJP had won 4 seats in the 2019 general election, but now is plagued with infighting and organizational weakness. INC had won 3 seats and it is now emerging stronger. AIMIM had won one seat. In the Vidhan Sabha, the BJP has no seat.
PM Modi’s hopelessness does not end here. Congress is strong in the state having 90 seats. The term of its Vidhan Sabha is to expire on January 3, 3024. There are 11 Lok Sabha seats out of which BJP had won 9 seats and the Congress could win only 2 seats in 2019. BJP has therefore left no stone unturned in the state election at a time when the wind is blowing in favour of the Congress.
The term of the Madhya Pradesh Vidhan Sabha is to expire on January 16, 2024, and there is an there is a double anti-incumbency against the double engine government of the state led by BJP leader Shivraj Singh Chouhan and the Central government led by PM Modi. There are 230 Vidhan Sabha seats in the state, and it sends 29 MPs in the Lok Sabha. BJP had won 28 Lok Sabha seats from the state, but now it is faced with a grim scenario both in the Vidhan Sabha election later this year and the Lok Sabha election next year. Congress seems to be all set to dislodge BJP from power in Madhya Pradesh, which may drastically reduce the BJP’s prospect in the Lok Sabha election 2024.
BJP is Rajasthan is an utterly divided house, and the change of the leader of the legislative group in the Vidhan Sabha and the state president does not seem working in its favour. On the other hand, Congress is stronger on the ground due to good performance of the Gehlot government and its pro people policies. There are 200 seats in the Vidhan Sabha and the state sends 25 MPs in the Lok Sabha. BJP had won all 25 Lok Sabah seats in 2019, and hence the gloomy prospect for the party in Vidhan Sabha election 2023, sends disturbing signal for the BJP’s and Modi’s prospect in returning to power after Lok Sabha election 2024.
It is in this backdrop, the unsparing utterance of PM Modi in Bikaner rally against the Congress and Rahul Gandhi could be understood, apart from lashing out the Gehlot led Congress government in Rajasthan.PM Modi said that Congress is confident of its defeat, but kept silent about his confidence of winning the state election.
PM Modi even devoted more than usual time in enumerating the Congress’s weaknesses rather than his or BJP’s stronger position. He claimed that Congress was suffering from infighting and corruption, and did immense damage to Rajasthan in last four years of their rule. He even made a series of allegations against the Congress and said it was instable, when everybody knows that Congress has been firmly ruling the state for its last full term.
As for Rahul Gandhi is concerned, PM Modi attacked him on four counts– farmers’ issues, mohabbat ki dukaan, Rahul’s comments in US and UK, and opposition’s including INC’s demand of proof of surgical strike by Modi on Pakistan in 2016 and 2019. All these betray Modi’s confidence. (IPA Service)
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