By Dr. Gyan Pathak
Rajasthan politics is turning more complex with infighting within both the ruling Congress and the opposition BJP. Infighting in the Congress came into limelight more sharply than the BJP, because Congress leader Sachin Pilot had given ultimatum to launch statewide agitation against CM Ashok Gehlot if his demands were not met by May 30. Infighting in the BJP is presently relegated into the background, a factor due to which BJP had lost the Vidhan Sabha Election 2018 in the state.
Even though certain truce is brought between the warring factions of both the political parties, it is most unlikely that the warring factions would cease to work against each other in the Vidhan Sabha Election 2023 which is just six months away. It is chiefly because the fights between the factions are too personal in nature, and the voters can see through their respective situations. The report coming from the ground also suggest that the voters are generally inclined to vote on the party line rather than personality cults. For them, what is happening in Rajasthan now, is a very entertaining political drama.
Let us take few examples. Sachin Pilot camp in Congress has been demanding from his party’s government led by CM Ashok Gehlot to initiate action against the corruption under BJP rule led by CM Vasundhara Raje Scindia. Gehlot camp has interestingly been asking Sachin Pilot camp as to why they are silent on BJP leader Gajendra Singh Shekhawat who is involved in a cooperative society scam?
It is very interesting. The two camps within Congress are trading charges on two warring camps in BJP alleging that they are supporting each other. It should be noted that in September 2022, Sachin Pilot had rebelled against CM Ashok Gehlot, and the latter has alleged that the BJP leader Gajendra Singh Shekhawat was wooing the Congress leader Sachin Pilot. Recently, Ashok Gehlot had even praised Vasundhara Raje Scindia for helping his government survive the revolt, which Raje camp has refuted.
Thus, we see two factions in Congress – Gehlot and Sachin camps. There are also two camps in BJP – Vsundhara and Shekhawat camps. Shekhawat camp in the BJP and Sachin camp in the Congress want to increase their dominance in their respective parties in the state as against the present dominance of Vasundhara camp in state BJP and Gehlot camp in state Congress. As for allegation of helping each other – it is said that Gehlot and Vasundhara are helping each other against respective rebellions Sachin and Shekhawat in their respective party.
It is also worth recalling that the two parties have been in power in Rajasthan alternately since 2003. In 2018, BJP leadership was trying to change the leadership in the state, but the CM Vasundhara Raje has threatened to revolt, the insiders said. That is why, BJP Central leadership was compelled to contest the election with Vasundhara Raje as CM face, but BJP lost the election. BJP could win only 73 seats out of 200.
The National BJP leadership, including the Union Home Minister Amit Shah has been emphasizing for collective leadership in the state for quite some time, ever since December 2021, when he had visited Jaipur to address a ‘Jan Pratinidhi Sankalp Sammelan and a closed-door BJP working committee meeting. BJP is still not able to project any collective leadership in the state, which show how deeper the infighting in the Rajasthan BJP has gone.
Recently, during a BJP rally party leaders and activists were heard sloganeering against each other. BJP’s Jan Akrosh Yatra failed because it could not get support by all factions of the BJP. Central BJP has even changed its president and Leader of Opposition in the Vidhan Sabha, but it could not unite the party. Former state BJP President Satish Poonia and the present president CP Joshi are going their own ways. Vasundhara Raje, if not projected as CM candidate, is most likely to rebel against the BJP’s central leadership.
Rajasthan BJP is thus a divided house, which is not likely to be united before the Vidhan Sabha election 2023. Infighting in the party is worse than it was during the last election in 2018 when the party could win only 73 seats. It is a matter of serious concern for the Central BJP, since the party had won 24 seats out of 25 Lok Sabha seats from the state in Lok Sabha election 2019.
Though, Congress had won 100 Vidhan Sabha Seats in Rajasthan in 2018, it could win only one Lok Sabha seat in 2019. It was due to sharp polarization of Hindu votes in favour of BJP. However, this time such a polarization in favour of BJP seems not possible, first – on account of Modi’s declining charisma as seen in Karnataka election where he and his party failed in polarizing Hindu votes in their favour. It is chiefly because people’s suffering on account of joblessness, cost of living crisis and unaffordable healthcare.
In case of Rajasthan, CM Ashok Gehlot has recently made heathcare free for all in states hospitals. It has made its impact among common people. People are also not happy with the Modi government on account of rising unemployment, especially among youth.
It is true that Sachin Pilot is an important Congress leader in Rajasthan, but he had support of only about 15 MLAs, as against 85 in favour of Gehlot. Even during the revolt last year, he was reported to have support of only 18 MLAs.
Sachin Pilot has said more than once that he would not be joining BJP. Moreover, BJP is not very keen to have him in their fold, on account of unbridgeable chasm prevailing among state BJP leaders in the state. BJP needs to repair its own house first at this moment.
Therefore, despite infighting in Congress, Gehlot and Sachin camps are compelled to agree to some working arrangement through mediation of Central Congress leadership. Hence, the incumbent Congress has better chance of winning not only 2023 Vidhan Sabha election, but also of snatching over half of the seats from BJP in 2024 Lok Sabha election. (IPA Service)
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