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Are Stocks Set For A Major Decline In The Fall?

By Eric Parnell, CFA:

The market news coverage is becoming increasingly polarized. On one side of the debate are those that believe the sky is the limit for stocks in the months ahead. With stocks reaching a fresh all-time high on Friday, this view has yet to be invalidated. On the other side of the discussion are those that expect a significant stock market pullback is not only imminent but also long overdue. Given the fact that we are soon entering what has historically been a tumultuous time of year for stocks, such expectations may soon be validated. Who is right? Only time will tell, but in working to identify the answer it is worthwhile to explore market history to see if we can identify clues as to whether the stock market is setting up for a major decline as we head into the fall of 2014.

The onset of fall has traditionally come

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