For the 3rd month in a row, US Producer Prices have risen at a faster rate than The Fed’s mandate. April healdine PPI rose 2.5% YoY – the most since Feb 2012, and well above the highest anayst estimate, despite disinflationary credit impulse pressures from China being seen in industrial metals. The biggest driver is surging costs for investment advice!
Core PPI (ex food and energy) rose 1.9% YoY – also above highest estimates – to the highest since Dec 2014.
The full breakdown shows that over a quarter of the April advance in the index for final demand services is attributable to prices for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services, which increased 6.6 percent. The indexes for guestroom rental; loan services (partial); machinery, equipment, parts, and supplies wholesaling; portfolio management; and airline passenger services also moved higher.
In April, the index for cigarettes moved up 2.2 percent. Prices for gasoline, fresh and dry vegetables, fresh fruits and melons, residential natural gas, and pharmaceutical preparations also advanced. Conversely, the index for jet fuel fell 6.1 percent. Prices for carbon steel scrap and oilseeds also declined
In contrast, margins for fuels and lubricants retailing dropped 14.6 percent. The indexes for food and alcohol retailing and for deposit services (partial) also fell.
So Q1 saw The Fed hike as GDP growth plummeted (weakest quarterly growth for a rate hike since 1980) and inflation surged… this won’t end well.