The tariff hammer is about to drop. On Tuesday, the US will slap new duties on goods from Canada and Mexico, and possibly hike levies on Chinese imports. Investors don’t need reminding—tariffs are the number one risk factor hanging over global markets.
This isn’t just policy posturing; it’s a direct hit to corporate profits, consumer prices, and the already fragile supply chains that businesses spent years rebuilding after the pandemic.
Trump’s commerce secretary, Howard Lutnick, insists the final rate remains “fluid,” but the uncertainty itself is the killer.
A 25% tariff on Mexico and non-energy imports from Canada? That’s a punch to industries that rely on North American trade. Another 10% on China, doubling the February hike? That’s a fire lit under inflation fears. And with Trump tying tariff hikes to fentanyl concerns, the unpredictability is dialled up even further.
Markets hate surprises, and investors are stuck in the middle of a game where the rules shift overnight.
Just last week, Trump hinted at a different tariff timeline—now we’re locked into Tuesday. When even the White House’s own officials can’t pin down exact rates, traders have no choice but to hedge, speculate, or pull back entirely.
Volatility spikes, confidence dips, and business leaders are forced to price in policy whiplash.
The irony? The very protectionist measures designed to strengthen US industry often end up inflicting the most damage on it.
Tariffs mean higher costs for manufacturers, who pass those on to consumers. Retaliatory measures hit American exports, from agriculture to tech. Currency markets don’t sit still either; trade tensions send the dollar swinging, making it harder for firms to plan ahead.
This is a chaotic sprint where winners and losers are decided by the next presidential tweet.
So what now? Investors need to cut through the noise and position themselves accordingly.
The sectors most at risk—automotive, retail, and tech—are already feeling the pressure, while those that benefit from trade disruptions, like domestic materials and logistics firms, could see an artificial boost. But the real play isn’t about trying to guess the next move; it’s about ensuring portfolios aren’t left exposed to the fallout.
Hedging against currency volatility, seeking out regions less affected by trade disputes, and looking at companies with diversified supply chains—these are the defensive strategies smart investors are already employing.
The winners in this tariff storm won’t be those waiting for the headlines to settle. They’ll be the ones who anticipate the worst and structure their holdings accordingly with an adviser.
Nigel Green is deVere CEO and Founder
Also published on Medium.
