During President Biden’s high profile summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping last week, his national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, briefed him on an unrelated matter, namely, the escalating tensions in the Middle East.
With less than a year remaining for the 2024 election, President Biden is faced with the challenge of managing both the intensifying conflict in Ukraine, which is gradually reaching a stalemate, and a delicate peace agreement with China. As Biden runs for a second term, the multiple problems are making it harder for him to show American voters that he is focused on the issues that matter most to them at home
While attending meetings in California aimed at demonstrating America’s backing for nations in the Asia-Pacific region, President Biden was confronted with explicit demands. The discussions with Chinese President Xi Jinping revolved significantly around the two ongoing wars, and leaders from around the world, participating in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit {APEC}, expressed their apprehensions about these conflicts both privately and publicly.
President Biden, drawing from his past role as the head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and his dedication to protecting democracy, aims to present himself as a strong leader. He uses his extensive foreign policy experience to bring stability to the world. People who know him well say he enjoys being seen as a leader on the global stage.
The majority express primary concern for domestic affairs, particularly the economy. Biden’s potential electoral setback is attributed to his utilization of U.S. resources and influence in conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. According to a recent CNN poll, just 36% believe the 81-year-old president, marking his birthday on Monday, is an “effective world leader.”
According to Democratic pollster Ben Tulchin, what happens in other countries usually doesn’t strongly influence voters. But, he thinks Biden can use his foreign policy efforts to highlight the differences between him and Trump, his main opponent in 2024. Tulchin said, “It’s like a good comparison. It’s significant that Trump is dealing legal issues in four criminal cases and Biden is handling international matters.”
Biden is making an effort to convince people that events far away from the U.S. matter to them. If support for Ukraine weakens, Russia might become more aggressive towards other European countries, possibly leading to U.S. military involvement. Tensions in the Middle East, particularly with Iran, could draw the U.S. into a conflict there. Increased issues with China might result in a costly trade war for Americans. If there’s a direct military clash with Beijing over Taiwan or another matter, it could lead to even more serious consequences for the U.S. and its allies.
John Kirby, spokesperson for the National Security Council, emphasized the importance of continually reminding people that what happens in other countries can have a big impact on the United States. It’s crucial to make sure everyone understands how events abroad can affect people here at home.
According to polls, some people might not be interested in these perspectives as they are more concerned about prices at home. Republicans are using this to their advantage. Some Republicans, including Trump, argue that Biden is not being tough enough on China. Others say the U.S. shouldn’t continue providing billions of dollars to Ukraine.
Rep. Michael McCaul, who leads the House Foreign Affairs Committee, from Texas, said the APEC meeting was not useful. He criticized Biden for agreeing to Beijing’s request to remove a Chinese police institute from an export blacklist to gain China’s support in combating fentanyl production. Trump, in his speech, claimed, “Throughout Biden’s presidency, he has been one long sellout to Beijing.
The Biden administration is paying a lot of attention to China because they see it as a rival that could change global rules. The U.S. and China disagree on issues like Russia’s war on Ukraine and the conflict between Israel and Hamas. They are also competing to be leaders in high-tech fields. Relations got strained earlier this year when there were concerns about a possible Chinese spy balloon over North America. To address this, top officials from the U.S. government visited Beijing to try to improve things.
During the meeting with Xi on Wednesday, the administration aimed to address tensions, and Biden mentioned that he and Xi agreed to communicate directly when issues arise. At a conference happening simultaneously with APEC, business leaders liked the idea of having more stable relations. Leaders of important partner countries also backed this, discussing other global crises.
Anwar Ibrahim, the prime minister of Malaysia, said at a business conference that working together and trusting each other is essential to address significant issues like climate change, Ukraine, and Gaza. He highlighted that it’s not helpful for countries like Malaysia to view global issues and major powers through the lens of the Cold War.
Friends and allies wish for less tension, and if things stay calm with China, the Biden administration can focus on more crucial issues and domestic plans, like boosting American manufacturing to counter Beijing. U.S. officials also mention that it would offer Biden more time to address his China policy while campaigning, as Republicans are likely to criticize him on this.
Dennis Wilder, a former U.S. intelligence officer who is now a senior fellow at Georgetown University, said, “They want to go into the campaign saying they’re managing the Chinese.”
Because the president has consistently supported Israel, he’s facing more complicated political issues. A recent poll by the Wall Street Journal found that many Americans prefer the U.S. not getting involved in the region, even though a lot of voters support Israel. Additionally, more and more young people, who are a crucial Democratic group and weren’t big fans of Biden initially, disapprove of how he backed Israel’s response to Hamas’ attack.
In the coming weeks, Congress needs to figure out what to do about Biden’s ask for around $106 billion in national security funds for Israel, Ukraine, and other matters. Senate Republicans are seeking adjustments to U.S. border policy as a condition for backing the package, but discussions between the two parties haven’t resulted in an agreement yet.
In the past, presidents had to campaign during global crises. For example, George W. Bush led the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq after the 9/11 attacks and narrowly won re-election in 2004. Biden, during his 2020 campaign, pledged to put an end to long-lasting wars. Lyndon B. Johnson chose not to seek re-election in 1968 because he grew increasingly upset about the Vietnam War.
In his speeches this week, Biden aimed to demonstrate the tangible impact of his diplomatic efforts by urging companies worldwide to consider investing in the United States.
Speaking to a group of CEOs, Biden mentioned that when you do business with the U.S. and our companies, you can expect good things: high standards, fair practices, protection for workers, excellent ideas and innovations, and a commitment to taking care of the Earth. He added, “You can count on getting quality.”
People close to Biden say that he can manage both his work within the country and dealing with other countries. They connect the president’s frequent trips to how well the administration has handled the economy. Ben LaBolt, the communication director for the White House, mentioned, “Building strong connections with other countries has contributed to securing America’s economic recovery and growth.”
Biden’s team is focusing on what they call a “foreign policy for the middle class.” This idea was thought up by Sullivan, who is in charge of national security. It came about after Trump won against Hillary Clinton in 2016.
People in the government say this approach mixes foreign policy with goals at home to attract investment and create jobs. They highlight laws supporting clean energy and semiconductor manufacturing as examples of Biden’s accomplishments.
At the same time, this method makes it harder for the U.S. to use common commercial diplomatic tools to win over other countries, such as lowering tariffs and making it easier for them to access the big American market.
Biden has faced challenges in competing with China for influence in the Asia-Pacific region due to concerns that trade with other countries may harm American workers. Officials were eager to start the trade aspect of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework this week. It involves an agreement among over a dozen countries with some basic trade rules.
In 2024 presidential elections, China policy may not matter much, but the West Asian situation will matter if it accentuates. A large number of Democratic Party supporters, especially young are strongly opposed to Biden’s strident pro-Israel policy.. The pro-Sanders section of the Party are also vocal against the US President’s continued assistance to Israel despite the killings of civilians in Gaza strip. The issue may assume importance more in the coming days if the President continues with his present policy of giving full backing to the Prime Minister Netanyahu. (IPA Service)
(The author is a Defence, Aerospace & Political Analyst based in Bengaluru.)
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