Arabian Post Staff -Dubai
Citigroup analysts warn that a shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz could lift Brent crude prices to approximately $90 a barrel, although they expect any halt to shipping to be brief. They cite the strategic importance of the strait—through which nearly 20 million barrels per day flow—suggesting market reaction would be sharp but short-lived as global efforts would swiftly aim to reopen the passage.
Citigroup’s forecast is embedded in a wider reassessment of global oil dynamics amid escalating Middle East tensions, particularly stemming from the Israel‑Iran conflict. With around 3 million barrels per day of output at potential risk and Iran among OPEC’s top producers, disruptions—even temporary—could reverberate across the energy market. Citi’s base-case scenario projects Brent at $75–78 per barrel if approximately 1.1 million barrels daily of Iranian exports are affected.
A total 3 million bpd disruption, sustained over months, could even hit the $90 mark, Citi warns. Still, analysts emphasise that broader supply resilience, including increased output from non‑OPEC producers and reduced demand growth—due in part to slowing Chinese purchases—might temper a sustained rally.
Other leading financial institutions draw a similar line: Goldman Sachs and Barclays point to heightened geopolitical risk premiums, respectively estimating $10 and $15–20 per barrel add-ons if Iran’s exports are severely cut—a situation that could push prices above $100 in extreme scenarios. JPMorgan outlines a worst-case blockade of the Hormuz strait leading to a $120‑130 spike, though such events would likely be fleeting.
Analysts and experts stress that while short-term oil supply disruptions would sharply affect spot prices, structural market factors could offset prolonged volatility. OPEC has spare capacity; U.S. shale output remains nimble; and China has begun trimming its purchases as inventories fill, helping absorb supply shocks.
Geosphere Capital’s Arvind Sanger assesses a 25 percent likelihood of an actual tactical attack on critical infrastructure such as Kharg Island or Hormuz, but holds that there is a 75 percent chance hostilities do not directly impact supply chains. Shipping insurance and risk premiums are rising, though long‑term disruption remains unlikely.
Diplomatic signals, particularly from Washington playing a stabilising role in response to Iranian threats, may also help contain risks. Historical precedent—such as Rapid US naval deployments near the strait in 2008—reinforces the view that any attempt to close Hormuz by Tehran would quickly provoke international counter‑measures.
Market movements reflect this delicate balance. Brent futures recently climbed above $78 before easing to the low‑to mid‑$70s, as traders weighed the potential for escalation against buffer capacity and broader production trends. Estimates from Rystad Energy suggest oil will likely remain capped below $80 unless dramatic escalation occurs—a view echoed by Midland Reporter‑Telegram coverage.
Citi’s note, authored by Anthony Yuen and Eric Lee, highlights that even though Hormuz closure would trigger a pronounced price spike, global strategic response and logistical imperatives would likely curtail its duration. They describe that, in their bullish scenario, “any closure of the Strait could lead to a sharp price spike … but … it should not be a multi‑month closure.”
Investors are advised to monitor diplomatic channels, oil inventories, and production shifts in Saudi Arabia, UAE and the US. While a temporary supply squeeze may lift prices—potentially to the $90 level—structural growth in non‑OPEC output and strategic reserves may prevent a prolonged energy shock.
Also published on Medium.
