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James M Dorsey

India Politics

By James M Dorsey US and European acquiescence in Turkey’s long-standing refusal to honour Kurdish ethnic, cultural, and political rights came home to roost when Turkey initially objected to Finnish and Swedish membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO). Ultimately, Turkey postponed potential conflict in NATO by dropping its initial objection to Finland and […]

The post Spotlight on U.S. Double Standards In Dealing With Turkey And Middle East first appeared on IPA Newspack.

India Politics

By James M Dorsey It’s a good time, almost 12 years after the world soccer body, FIFA, awarded Qatar the 2022 World Cup hosting rights and five months before the tournament, to evaluate the campaign to reform the country’s erstwhile onerous labour system and accommodate fans whose lifestyles violate restrictive laws and/or go against deeply […]

The post World Cup Balance Sheet Presents A Mixed Bag For Qatar first appeared on IPA Newspack.

India Politics

By James M Dorsey China could be entering choppy Middle Eastern waters. Multiple crises and conflicts will likely shape its relations with the region’s major powers, including Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Turkey. The laundry list of pitfalls for China includes the fallout of the Ukraine war, strained US relations with Saudi Arabia and the United […]

The post China Heading To Choppy Middle Eastern Waters first appeared on IPA Newspack.

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India Politics

By James M Dorsey Qatar Airways CEO Akbar Al-Baqr, a man known for his pithy retorts, pretended to quiver in his pants. Hindu nationalists had called for a boycott of the Gulf airline after Qatar took India to task for derogatory remarks about the Prophet Mohammed and Muslim worship by two spokespeople of the country’s […]

The post India-Gulf Spat Over Prophet Remarks: Protagonists In Glass Houses first appeared on IPA Newspack.

India Politics

By James M Dorsey United States of America and European acquiescence in Turkey’s long-standing refusal to honour Kurdish ethnic, cultural, and political rights has come home to roost with Turkish opposition to Finnish and Swedish NATO membership. The opposition has sparked debates about Turkey’s controversial place in the North Atlantic defence alliance. Turkey’s detractors point […]

The post Double Standards Haunt US, Europe In NATO Dispute With Turkey first appeared on IPA Newspack.

India Politics

By James M Dorsey For now, Ukraine is the far from my bed show for most Middle Eastern nations. The question is not if but when Ukraine will arrive on their doorstep. Two centrifugal forces threaten to push Middle Eastern nations off the tightrope: an increasingly bifurcated world populated by a multitude of civilisationalist leaders […]

The post Ukraine: How Long Can Middle East Nations Do Tightrope Walk first appeared on IPA Newspack.

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India Politics

James M Dorsey Amid speculation about a reduced US military commitment to security in the Middle East, Turkey has spotlighted the region’s ability to act as a disruptive force if its interests are neglected. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan set off alarm bells this week, declaring that he was not “positive” about possible Finnish and […]

The post Turkey’s Erdogan Plays Games Within And With NATO first appeared on IPA Newspack.

India Politics

By James M Dorsey When Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, he laid down a marker for a critical mass of world leaders who, like him, think in civilizational rather than national terms. In the minds of these leaders, the stakes in Ukraine are about much more than the future of a former Soviet republic […]

The post Modi’s ‘Civilisationalism’ May Be Another Potential Flashpoint first appeared on IPA Newspack.

India Politics

By James M Dorsey There’s a potential silver lining in Hindu nationalism’s endorsement of Indonesia’s Humanitarian Islam. That is if the approval produces a Hindu equivalent. At first glance, Hindu nationalist Ram Madhav’s call on Indian Muslims to embrace one, if not the world’s most moderate expression of Islam, seems patronising and out of step. […]

The post Can Indonesia’s Humanitarian Islam Inspire A Hindu Equivalent? first appeared on IPA Newspack.

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India Politics

By James M Dorsey The Russian Orthodox Church blesses rather than fires weapons. In doing so, it has emerged as a powerful weapon in its own right in President Vladimir Putin’s civilisationalist arsenal. Putin justified his 12-day-old invasion of Ukraine in part by asserting that President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government had been preparing for the “destruction” […]

The post Putin Adds A Religious Front In His Expansionist Agenda first appeared on IPA Newspack.

India Politics

By James M Dorsey Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine and the international condemnation it generated contains key lessons for policymakers. They are lessons that should have been learned in past global crises but weren’t. However, the Ukraine crisis offers an opportunity to correct that mistake. A first lesson is that failure to firmly […]

The post Ukraine: Result Of Lessons Not Being Learnt From Past Mistakes first appeared on IPA Newspack.

India Politics

By James M Dorsey Europe is likely to shoulder the brunt of the fallout of a rapidly escalating crisis over Ukraine. Middle Eastern states could prove to be a close second. That is no truer than for Turkey and Israel, whose management of the Ukraine crisis could determine their ability to protect perceived core national […]

The post Middle East Faces Spill-Over Effect From Ukraine War Threats first appeared on IPA Newspack.

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Columns

James M Dorsey Israel’s latest Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange proposal puts the ball in Hamas’ court. The proposal, drafted in recent days by Israeli negotiators and Egyptian interlocutors, goes some way to address Hamas’ long-standing demands. The proposal makes concessions Israel has rejected in the past but raises as many questions as it opens doors to possible breakthroughs in the long-stalled negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt. In response, Hamas said […]

Columns

James M Dorsey An Israeli ground offensive in the southern Gazan enclave of Rafah is a question of when, not if. Not because Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is oblivious to US and international pressure but because it could prove to be make or break for Israel’s embattled leader. Netanyahu has promised “total victory” in the Gaza war and to “finish the job” in Rafah. The stakes for  Netanyahu could […]

Columns

James M Dorsey Multiple overt and covert wars have pushed the Middle East to the edge of a cliff. Increased tension between Iran and Israel complicates efforts to pull the Middle East back from the abyss. With the two archenemies walking a fine line between waging covert or overt war, escalation between Israel and Iran has the greatest potential to push the Middle East off the cliff. […]

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Columns

James M Dorsey Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is tying himself up in knots as he grudgingly, and only to a limited degree, bows to US President Joe Biden’s demands. In doing so, Netanyahu is puncturing Swiss-cheese size holes into Israel’s Gaza narrative, making it easier for Mr. Biden to take him publicly to task. Biden has demanded that Israel allow the unfettered flow of desperately needed humanitarian […]

Columns

James M Dorsey The Greater Middle East is a ticking time bomb. Generations in war-wracked Palestine, Syria, and Yemen have little, if anything, to look forward to. Moreover, discontent is mounting and could explode anytime in countries like Jordan, Egypt, and Iran. Palestine is a pressure cooker. Gazan youth has known little else than two decades of wars and siege. Beyond the trauma of the latest six-month-old war, Gaza’s next […]

Columns

James M Dorsey Muhammad Manassara walked in late February into a gas station near the West Bank settlement of Eli. Armed with an automatic weapon, Manassara killed two people before he was shot dead by the owner of a restaurant at the station, the site of the killing last summer of four Israelis. Three weeks later, Mujahid Barakat Mansour, a father of two small children, opened fire near the […]

Columns

James M Dorsey Israel’s refusal to lift restrictions on the unfettered entry into Gaza of food, medical supplies, and other desperately needed humanitarian goods, has less to do with a stand-alone starvation policy and more with who controls distribution in the Strip. Both Israel and Hamas see control of aid distribution as a building block of who comes out on top once the guns fall silent. The […]

Columns

James M Dorsey Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s walls are caving in. His multiple battles fall into two categories: keeping his increasingly fragile government in place and fighting a war he has already lost in the court of public opinion and possibly on the ground in Gaza if measured by the prime minister’s war goals. On Monday, Israel suffered its most significant international setback since 2016 with […]

Columns

James M Dorsey A just-published Palestinian public opinion survey offers pointers for what a successful transition from the devastating Gaza war to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will have to entail. The survey’s pointers take on added significance as the United States, Europe and Arab states seek to turn the fallout of Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel and the carnage caused by Israel’s assault on the Strip […]

Columns

James M Dorsey This year’s US presidential elections are not the only potential hurdle confronting President Joe Biden’s multi-pronged vision for a Middle East peace once the Gaza war ends. So is Israeli intransigence, the prospect of a long-term insurgency in post-war Gaza, and increasing Saudi Chinese technological cooperation. The Biden administration is pushing for a multi-pronged comprehensive Middle East deal that would not only end the […]

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Columns

James M Dorsey \Failed efforts to achieve a Gaza ceasefire on the eve of Ramadan leave innocent Gazans in the lurch, highlight the gap between Israel and Hamas’ demands in negotiations, and raise the stakes for the United States. At the core of the stalled negotiations is Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing Israel’s assault after a ceasefire and an exchange of some Hamas-held hostages kidnapped […]

Columns

James M Dorsey The Gaza war has turned Palestine into a lightning rod for mounting frustration and discontent in Arab autocracies such as Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco. Concerned that the war could mobilise segments of civil society, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates where any form of public protest is banned, have cracked down on expressions of solidarity with Gaza, including the sporting of […]

Columns

James M Dorsey A proposed temporary Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange appears designed to buy war-battered Gazans relief while enabling Israel and Hamas to claim a success. However, whether Israel or Hamas emerges as the ultimate victor will be determined by whether the truce becomes permanent and the war ends. Negotiated by Qatar, Egypt, the United States, Israel, and Hamas, the deal would be whittled down to […]

Columns

James M Dorsey Two recent soccer incidents suggest that beyond optics little has changed in the Saudi-Iranian rivalry since China mediated the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries a year ago. On the contrary, the Gaza war has highlighted the potential threat Iran and its non-state allies pose to the kingdom, even if both countries have toned down their rhetoric, are cautious not to provoke the other, […]

Columns

James M Dorsey The United Arab Emirates walks a geopolitical tightrope, juggling big power rivalries and mounting regional instability fuelled by the Gaza war.  Putin’s movements beyond the confines of Russia are restricted. Signatories of the Rome Statute that established the International Criminal Court are obliged to arrest Putin against whom the court has issued a Ukraine-related international arrest warrant. Visiting the UAE and Saudi Arabia was a […]

Columns

James M Dorsey The Biden administration is mulling whether to grant Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman sovereign immunity in a case related to the 2018 killing of Jamal Khashoggi. The journalist’s fiancé and a non-profit organization he helped found filed the lawsuit in a Washington district court. The court has extended its original August 1 deadline until October 3 for the administration to advise Judge John Bates on […]

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