James M Dorsey

Clash of civilizations at Venice art show

James M Dorsey Russia and the Nordic countries’ pavilions at this year’s Venice Biennale, the world’s most prestigious art exhibition, project two different concepts of civilization, nationalism, and sovereignty that have come to blows in Ukraine. Newly renovated, brooding, and inward-looking, Russia’s art nouveau pavilion stands empty and abandoned after its Lithuanian curator and artists resigned in protest against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. A lone armed guard is what […]

Israel takes centre-stage of Middle East politics

James M Dorsey A straightforward message emerged from this week’s meeting in the Negev desert of the foreign ministers of four Arab countries, Israel and the United States: Israel is key to the security of Gulf autocracies and continued US engagement in the Middle East. It may be a message that on the surface holds out the promise of reduced regional tension, the beginning of a rejiggering […]

In Saudi dance, maybe; dissent no

James M Dorsey Three scantily dressed samba dancers wearing traditional feather headdresses laid bare the limits of social liberalisation in Saud Arabia when they earlier this year danced on the streets of Jizan, a historically conservative city on the border with Yemen. Invited to participate in the Jizan Winter Festival, the dancers, in stark contrast with the traditional, all-covering black robes often worn by Saudi women in public, sported […]

War may be more impactful than fall of Berlin Wall

By James M Dorsey The Ukraine crisis may constitute a more impactful, historic watershed than the 1989 fall of the Berlin wall in the mind of Singapore Foreign Affairs Minister Vivian Balakrishnan. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is “perhaps even a bigger moment than the fall of the Berlin Wall,”  Balakrishnan said. “We believe we are at an inflection point,” he added. “Little Singapore is standing up for principles and […]

Putin hums ‘Georgia on my mind’

By James M Dorsey What did Russian President Vladimir Putin think when he ordered his troops into Ukraine? Ray Charles’ ‘Georgia on mind’ must have been humming in his head. A slightly altered version, ‘Palestine on my mind,’ was undoubtedly on Egyptian athlete Ali Farag’s mind when he condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Sunday as he won Britain’s Optacia squash championship. “We’ve never been allowed […]

Ukraine may force ME rivals to upgrade toolkit

James M Dorsey Struggling to remain on the sidelines of the 21st century’s watershed war in Ukraine, Middle Eastern nations are discovering that they may be fighting their battles with an outdated toolkit. As a result, the Ukraine war could saw off the legs from under the table of Middle Eastern détente that already are built on shaky ground. For the past 18 months, Middle Eastern rivals – Saudi […]

Putin Adds A Religious Front In His Expansionist Agenda

Clashing visions of ‘moderate Islam’

James M Dorsey Two diametrically opposed visions of moderate Islam have emerged as major Muslim powers battle to define the soul of their faith in the 21st century in a struggle that is as much about geopolitics as it is about autocratic survival and visualisations of a future civilisation and world order. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Yahya Cholil Staquf, the newly elected chairman of […]

UAE makes a risky geopolitical bet

James M Dorsey Emiratis celebrated their decision not to condemn the Russian invasion of Ukraine in the United Nations Security Council as the end of an era in which the Gulf state took its foreign policy cues from the United States. However, the Emiratis may be celebrating prematurely. As the UAE took over from Russia this month as chairman of the Council, Abdulkhaleq Abdulla, a political scientist […]

Ukraine: Result Of Lessons Not Being Learnt From Past Mistakes

Putin Pushing For A New World Order Through Ukraine

Russian conquest of Kyiv not a pretty picture

By James M Dorsey It may be only a matter of time before Russian troops control the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv and topple President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. However, that may not be the end of the story. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s troops could find themselves in Ukraine for the long haul depending on whether Ukrainians have the stomach to launch an insurgency. If so, Mr. Putin knows the […]

ME states do tight rope walk over Ukraine

By James M Dorsey Israel and Gulf states struggle not to fall off the tightrope they walk as a Russian attack on Ukraine makes hedging bets increasingly tricky. Unlike Israel, the Gulf states may feel that they have more flexibility than the Jewish state that depends on the United States for its regional military superiority and political support in an international community critical of its 54-year-long occupation […]

Middle East Faces Spill-Over Effect From Ukraine War Threats

Russia breathes down Middle East necks over Ukraine

James M Dorsey Europe is likely to shoulder the brunt of the fallout of a rapidly escalating crisis over Ukraine. Middle Eastern states could prove to be a close second. That is no truer than for Turkey and Israel, whose management of the Ukraine crisis could determine their ability to protect perceived core national interests. Indeed, for NATO-member Turkey, the stakes could not be higher. Its 2,000 […]

For Israel food could do what diplomacy can’t

By James M Dorsey Food, far more than diplomatic relations with Arab states, could be turning Israel into a state rooted rather than implanted in the Middle East even if Palestinians are likely to continue to look at the Jewish state as an implant and usurper for generations to come. Israel’s conversion is as much a domestic revolution as Palestinians perceive it to be an extension of […]

Turkey gold conversion plan faltering

By James M Dorsey When Turkish finance minister Nureddin Nebati this week announced plans to encourage households to convert their gold holdings into Turkish liras in a bid to shore up Turkish central bank reserves, he was targeting people like Esra G. Ms. G., whose last name has been abbreviated to preserve her anonymity, has had a life-long troubled relationship with gold. When she was barely three years old, […]

Israel expands its Iran strategy

By James M Dorsey Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett has laid out an expanded Israeli strategy to confront Iran that appears to move beyond a potential military strike against the Islamic republic’s nuclear facilities. Bennett appeared to be guided not only by concern about the fallout of a unilateral Israeli action but also seemingly mounting fears in Tehran that economic hardship could spark a social explosion. “Bennett’s new approach […]

Iran’s soccer course: Politics

By James M. Dorsey Iran recently scored not one but two soccer successes. Fans celebrated after the country’s national team qualified for the third consecutive time for the World Cup after beating Iraq 1:0 last week. It wasn’t just men celebrating. It was men and women mingling freely in a Tehran square. That was after men and women, albeit segregated, egged on their team in Tehran’s Azadi or Freedom Stadium. Although […]

Putin’s post-Soviet world remains a work in progress

By James M Dorsey Russian civilisationalism is proving handy as President Vladimir Putin seeks to expand the imaginary boundaries of his Russian World, whose frontiers are defined by Russian speakers and adherents to Russian culture rather than international law and/or ethnicity. Mr. Putin’s disruptive and expansive nationalist ideology has underpinned his aggressive approach to Ukraine since 2014 with the annexation of Crimea and the stoking of insurgencies […]

Kazakstan has lessons for Gulf countries

By James M Dorsey Russia’s intervention in Kazakhstan contains a cautionary message for Gulf foreign ministers visiting Beijing this week. The intervention to stabilize the government of Kazakh President Kassym-Johart Tokayev, following mass protests, cemented Russia’s primacy when it comes to security in Central Asia, a swathe of land that is as much Russia’s backyard as it is China’s. At least 164 people were killed in the protest, thousands […]

Saudi diplomacy needs flesh on its skeleton

By James M Dorsey Like Qatar, after winning the right to host this year’s World Cup, Saudi Arabia is discovering the pitfalls of seeking soft power, whether through sports or religion, without coming to grips with skeletons in its closet. Last week, France spotlighted the pitfalls when it questioned security in the kingdom following a mysterious explosion in a support vehicle carrying six members of the Sodicars Racing team […]

Saudi, Emirati religious moderation inspires few beyond borders

By James M Dorsey Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have drawn praise for social reforms that have domestically reduced the role of religion in public life, enhanced women’s rights, and, in the case of the UAE, catered to non-Muslim lifestyles. Yet, Saudi and Emirati efforts to position their countries as the Muslim world’s beacons of an autocratic notion of moderate Islam have done little to […]

Kazakhstan may be Putin’s next Ukraine

By James M Dorsey With Russian troops massing on Ukraine’s borders, it’s not only Ukrainians who worry about what President Vladimir Putin may have in store for them. It’s Kazakhs too. For now, Kazakhs don’t have to be immediately concerned about Russian troop movements. What unsettles them is years of Russian rhetoric, spearheaded by Mr. Putin’s repeated comments, stressing the ideological rather than the security aspect of […]

After UAE & Saudi, Qatar cleans its textbooks

By James M Dorsey Qatar has begun to cleanse its schoolbooks of supremacist, racist or derogatory references as well as celebrations of violent jihad and martyrdom, according to a recently released study. The revision of textbooks in the final year leading up to Qatar’s hosting of the 2022 World Cup is designed to keep the Gulf state in the beauty pageant for the beacon of moderate Islam. Saudi Arabia, […]

Pakistan revamps education at gunpoint

By James M Dorsey Javed Ahmad Ghamidi is a rare clerical voice in Pakistan. A prominent religious scholar and former member of the state-appointed Council of Islamic Ideology that ensures that legislation conforms with Islamic law, Mr. Ghamidi calls a spade a spade in a country in which that can have dire consequences. To be sure, Mr. Ghamidi can do so because he is no longer resident […]

Christmas finally arrives in Saudi Arabia

By James M Dorsey Long banned, Christmas has finally, at least tacitly, arrived in Saudi Arabia; just don’t use the name in marketing or be ostentatious about your tree. Coffeeshops serving beverages in red cups with snowflakes on them are ok. So is the sale of soap bars named ‘Tis the Season and Vanilla Bean Noel. Christmas trees that sell at up to US$3,000 a piece are slightly […]

Qatar World Cup sparks culture controversies

By James M Dorsey Footballers with diametrically opposed views on homosexuality and alcohol consumption have sparked heated controversy about Islamic mores and human and workers’ rights in Qatar’s final stretch in the run-up for next year’s FIFA World Cup. Two things stand out in the controversy beyond the specific arguments put forward by opposing camps. First, some fault lines cut across community lines rather than pit one […]

Chinese powder keg that has exploded

By James M Dorsey The crown jewel of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) increasingly looks like a powder keg that has exploded. Mass protests have for the past month swept Gwadar, a Chinese-dominated Pakistani port city 90 kilometres from the border with Iran that has long been plagued by intermittent protests and Baloch nationalist attacks on Chinese nationals and targets. Making things worse from China’s perspective, a […]

Playing cat and mouse: UAE firm to build power plants in Iran

By James M Dorsey Increasingly, compliance with US sanctions against Iran could emerge as a litmus test of the United Arab Emirates’ close ties to the United States. At the sharp edge of a potential rift between the allies is a reportedly recently concluded agreement by a private UAE company to build gas-fired thermal, solar, and wind power plants with a total capacity of 300 megawatts in Iran’s hydrocarbon-rich […]