Yuan faces fresh appreciation pressure after yen action

China’s yuan is facing stronger appreciation pressure after coordinated US-Japan action lifted the yen and rippled through Asian currency markets, complicating Beijing’s efforts to support an economy where export strength contrasts with weak domestic demand.

The yuan has gained about 3.6 per cent against the dollar this year, making it one of Asia’s strongest-performing currencies. The advance has persisted despite falling Chinese government bond yields and a widening yield disadvantage against US Treasuries, conditions that would normally encourage capital to favour the dollar. Strong export receipts and increased conversion of dollar earnings by exporters have instead provided sustained support for the currency.

Pressure intensified after the US and Japan intervened to strengthen the yen at the end of July. The operation marked the first coordinated action by Washington and Tokyo to support the Japanese currency since 1998, following a slide that took the yen to four-decade lows. US authorities had also alerted major banks to be prepared for possible intervention through the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, highlighting Washington’s concern about excessive currency volatility.

The yen subsequently surrendered roughly half of its initial gains, but the intervention had broader consequences across Asian foreign-exchange markets. South Korea’s won, the Singapore dollar and the Taiwan dollar have shown relatively high correlations with yen movements, while several other regional currencies have been less sensitive. The spillover has reinforced a wider trend towards appreciation in currencies exposed to North Asian trade and investment flows.

For Beijing, the stronger yuan presents a complicated policy trade-off. Appreciation reduces the local-currency cost of imported commodities and can provide some insulation against inflation generated by energy prices. It can also create more room for monetary easing because policymakers need to worry less about triggering capital outflows or destabilising depreciation.

The cost is greater pressure on exporters at a time when foreign demand has become an increasingly important support for economic activity. China’s export machine has remained resilient while household consumption, property investment and parts of the private economy have struggled to regain momentum. A rising yuan makes Chinese products more expensive abroad and reduces the value of exporters’ overseas earnings when converted back into local currency.

The People’s Bank of China has appeared increasingly willing to moderate the currency’s advance. Daily yuan reference rates have been set weaker than market expectations at times, signalling a preference for slowing appreciation rather than allowing the currency to rise unchecked. China operates a managed exchange-rate system in which the central bank establishes a daily midpoint and permits the onshore yuan to trade within a defined band around that fixing.

The yuan traded around 6.75 per dollar on Wednesday after strengthening through the 6.80 level earlier this year. Exporters have continued selling dollars when the US currency rises, while central-bank guidance has kept the appreciation gradual. Market forecasts generally point towards further controlled yuan strength rather than a rapid revaluation.

The currency’s resilience highlights an unusual divergence inside China’s economy. Long-term sovereign yields have declined as investors price weak domestic demand and subdued inflation, while the yuan has strengthened because of trade surpluses and exporter dollar conversions. China’s current-account surplus has expanded significantly as manufacturing exports have outpaced imports and domestic spending.

That divergence could influence the timing of the next monetary-policy move. One scenario would see the central bank reducing its benchmark policy rate by 10 basis points to 1.3 per cent before the end of the year, using currency strength as protection against depreciation pressure. Expectations remain divided, however, with many economists anticipating unchanged rates through 2026 as policymakers assess inflation, financial stability and the effectiveness of previous easing measures.

July inflation data strengthened the case for additional support. Consumer-price growth slowed to its weakest pace in six months, while producer-price pressures eased, renewing concerns that deflationary forces could return if domestic demand remains subdued. Higher energy costs had previously reduced expectations for further easing.

Currency policy is also becoming more closely tied to trade tensions. China’s expanding manufacturing surplus has generated demands among trading partners for a stronger yuan, particularly as exports of vehicles, machinery, electronics and clean-energy equipment increase. A materially stronger exchange rate would weaken some of that competitive advantage but could also reduce political pressure surrounding trade imbalances.