Canary Capital chief sees XRP cycle peaking in 2026

Steven McClurg, chief executive of Canary Capital, has told investors that XRP could reach its cycle high in 2026, diverging from the typical pattern that sees alternative tokens fall sharply when Bitcoin weakens. His remarks come as Bitcoin shows signs of having already topped out for the current cycle, raising questions about whether parts of the digital-asset market are entering a phase of decoupling.

McClurg said Bitcoin’s price action suggests the largest cryptocurrency may be heading into a corrective phase after an extended rally. Historically, such moves have dragged down the broader altcoin market, with smaller tokens often experiencing steeper declines as liquidity tightens and risk appetite fades. XRP, however, has shown relative resilience during periods when Bitcoin and other major tokens have moved lower, drawing attention from traders and long-term holders alike.

XRP’s performance has been underpinned by steady inflows even as the wider market has struggled. Market data indicate that XRP trading volumes and on-chain activity have remained comparatively stable during recent bouts of volatility, a pattern McClurg described as unusual in a market that tends to move in lockstep. He pointed to sustained interest from institutional participants as a factor that could support prices over a longer horizon, particularly if regulatory clarity continues to improve.

The token, which is closely associated with Ripple and its payments-focused blockchain infrastructure, has long occupied a distinct position in the crypto ecosystem. Unlike many speculative assets, XRP’s primary use case is tied to cross-border settlement and liquidity provision for financial institutions. This functional underpinning, supporters argue, gives it a different risk profile compared with purely narrative-driven tokens.

Regulatory developments have also shaped XRP’s trajectory. Court rulings and enforcement actions in key jurisdictions over the past two years have helped define how XRP transactions are treated under securities law, reducing a cloud of uncertainty that had weighed on sentiment. While legal issues have not disappeared entirely, clearer parameters have allowed some investors to reassess exposure to the asset.

McClurg’s view that XRP could peak in 2026 reflects an expectation that its adoption curve will play out over a longer timeframe than Bitcoin’s current cycle. Bitcoin’s rallies have increasingly been linked to macroeconomic factors such as monetary policy expectations and the approval of exchange-traded products, which tend to produce sharp but time-bound surges in demand. XRP’s growth, by contrast, is more closely tied to incremental uptake by payment providers and banks, a process that unfolds more gradually.

Industry analysts caution that divergence within the crypto market is not guaranteed to persist. Correlations between Bitcoin and altcoins often reassert themselves during periods of severe stress, particularly if global financial conditions tighten. A sharp contraction in liquidity or a broad risk-off move could still pressure XRP alongside other digital assets, regardless of its individual fundamentals.

Even so, several structural trends have worked in XRP’s favour. Cross-border payment volumes continue to expand as global trade and remittance flows recover, and blockchain-based settlement systems are increasingly being tested as alternatives to legacy networks. Ripple’s partnerships with financial institutions in Asia, the Middle East and Latin America have kept XRP central to discussions about faster and cheaper international transfers.

Market participants also note that XRP’s supply dynamics differ from those of Bitcoin. While Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is fixed and increasingly constrained, XRP’s circulating supply is influenced by escrow releases and usage within payment corridors. This can dampen extreme price spikes but may also reduce downside volatility if demand remains consistent.