Preliminary ship-tracking data showed six commodity vessels crossed the waterway on Monday, three entering the Gulf and three leaving. That was only a modest increase from the weekend and remained well below the 10-day average of 11 ships. Updated tracking figures recorded three crossings on Saturday and two on Sunday, revising earlier preliminary data that had indicated five Saturday transits and none on Sunday.
The figures underline the scale of disruption at one of the world’s most important energy corridors. More than 130 vessels a day used the strait before the US and Israel launched their war against Iran in February. Before the conflict, roughly a fifth of globally traded crude oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the narrow waterway connecting the Gulf with the Gulf of Oman.
No Very Large Crude Carriers or LNG tankers were tracked passing through on Monday. The Very Large Gas Carrier Xavia entered using the Iranian route while travelling under ballast, meaning it was not carrying cargo. A medium-range fuel tanker and an intermediate-range tanker also entered the Gulf. An LPG carrier, a Panamax bulk carrier and a Panamax-sized fuel tanker sailed out.
The continuing restrictions were accompanied by another security incident on Tuesday. A vessel travelling outbound through Hormuz was hit by an unknown projectile, damaging its engine room and causing a crew casualty. The remaining crew received assistance from the Omani Coast Guard. No environmental damage was reported and the circumstances of the attack were under investigation.
Shipping companies have increasingly treated the passage as a high-risk route after a series of tanker attacks. The United Arab Emirates said vessels operated by Abu Dhabi National Oil Company were attacked while transiting the strait last week. Traffic subsequently fell to a fraction of normal levels, with some days recording only a handful of identifiable ships.
Tracking data does not capture every movement because some vessels travel with their Automatic Identification System transponders switched off. The practice has become more significant during the conflict as operators try to reduce their visibility. Even allowing for untracked movements, however, observed traffic remains far below pre-war volumes.
The disruption has become closely intertwined with negotiations between Washington and Tehran. A June memorandum established a 60-day period for reaching a broader agreement intended to end the war, reopen Hormuz and address Iran’s nuclear programme. That deadline expired on Monday without a settlement, with the two sides still divided over control of the strait, the US blockade of Iran and the conditions for restoring unrestricted commercial navigation.
Iran has demanded the lifting of the blockade, withdrawal of US forces from around the country and compensation for war damage before accepting a broader arrangement. Tehran has also sought a formal role in managing traffic through Hormuz, potentially including charges for vessels. Washington has rejected those demands and insists the waterway should not come under Iranian control.
Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi has said Washington must meet Tehran’s conditions for shipping to resume. The United States, meanwhile, has said its naval blockade of Iran can be maintained indefinitely and has threatened additional economic pressure. That combination has left shipowners facing uncertainty over whether any temporary improvement in traffic can be sustained.
The pressure extends beyond Hormuz. Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb, another major energy and commercial chokepoint, has also weakened after Yemen’s Houthis declared a blockade against Saudi Arabia. Commodity-vessel transits there fell to 49 over the previous weekend from 55 a week earlier, while no tracked Saudi oil shipments were recorded.
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