Oil prices steady above $102 amid supply concerns

Oil prices were broadly steady above $102 a barrel on Friday as traders weighed China’s suspension of fuel exports and an expanding US military presence in the Middle East against signs that regional crude supplies were recovering.

Brent crude slipped 3 cents, or 0.03%, to $102.28 a barrel by 0350 GMT after edging higher earlier in Asian trading. US West Texas Intermediate fell 19 cents, or 0.2%, to $92.68, reversing small early gains.

The subdued moves followed a sharp rally on Thursday, when Brent settled at $102.31, up $4.28, or 4.37%, and WTI climbed $2.45, or 2.71%, to $92.87. Prices had initially fallen before concerns over refined-fuel availability and Middle East security drove a rapid reversal.

China’s refiners have suspended exports of oil products for October as Beijing seeks to protect domestic inventories. Major refiners entered the week-long national holiday without approval to ship diesel, petrol and jet fuel beyond Hong Kong and Macau, leaving uncertainty over whether exports will restart after the holiday ends on October 7.

PetroChina cancelled several petrol and jet-fuel cargoes scheduled for October, while Zhejiang Petrochemical did not schedule product exports during the holiday week. China’s National Development and Reform Commission had not publicly clarified whether broader shipments would be authorised later in the month.

The restriction has added pressure to a refined-products market already struggling with disrupted supplies from the Middle East and Russia. Commercial gasoil and diesel inventories in China were estimated at about 20 million barrels below levels Beijing considers adequate for restoring exports, while petrol stocks were roughly 9 million barrels short, according to Kpler.

Asian diesel spreads strengthened after the export suspension. China loaded an estimated 1.4 million tonnes of diesel, 500,000 tonnes of petrol and at least 2 million tonnes of jet fuel in September, including bonded volumes destined for Hong Kong and Macau, with total shipments lower than in August.

Geopolitical concerns also remained prominent. The US military is dispatching roughly 9,000 sailors and Marines aboard a group of ships to the Middle East, including the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the USS Makin Island amphibious readiness group. Their arrival could put three US aircraft carriers in the region by late October.

The deployment comes as President Donald Trump considers further military action against Iran. Trump said in an interview published on Thursday that renewed strikes after the November 3 US midterm elections were possible, while declining to disclose operational details.

Two US carriers, the USS George H. W. Bush and USS George Washington, are already in the region, alongside the USS Boxer amphibious readiness group. The additional deployment could raise the US naval presence to more than 20,000 sailors and Marines, together with hundreds of aircraft.

At the same time, Washington has pressed Germany and France to release emergency diesel stocks as governments seek ways to ease elevated fuel prices. The US has asked the European Union to release 120 million barrels of diesel over six months, according to people familiar with the discussions. EU countries hold nearly 109 million tonnes of emergency crude and fuel inventories.

Those prospective releases, together with improving Middle Eastern crude flows, helped restrain Friday’s oil rally. KCM Trade chief analyst Tim Waterer described the market as absorbing mixed signals after Thursday’s volatility, with stronger Saudi exports offset by the additional US carrier deployment and China’s export curbs.

Brent was heading for a weekly decline of about 2% despite its Thursday surge, after gaining about 14% during September. WTI, which advanced about 4% last month, was on course for a weekly rise of roughly 0.3%.

Oil’s reaction also reflected the importance of the $100-a-barrel level for Brent, which analysts regard as a key psychological and positioning threshold. Priyanka Sachdeva of Phillip Nova said immediate attention remained on the availability and movement of Middle Eastern crude and refined products to consuming markets globally.