Middle East downturn pulls global air demand lower

Global air passenger demand fell 0.8 per cent year-on-year in August, as a renewed contraction in Middle Eastern traffic outweighed growth across several other regions, the International Air Transport Association said.

Demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres, declined from August 2025 even as airlines increased total capacity by 0.3 per cent, measured in available seat kilometres. The global passenger load factor consequently slipped 0.9 percentage points to 85.1 per cent.

The figures marked a reversal from July, when worldwide passenger demand grew 0.2 per cent. IATA said demand excluding Middle Eastern carriers still increased 0.6 per cent in August, although that was half the pace recorded outside the region a month earlier.

Middle Eastern airlines recorded the sharpest regional deterioration, with total demand down 14.6 per cent year-on-year and capacity reduced by 9.3 per cent. Their load factor dropped 4.9 percentage points to 78.9 per cent.

Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice-president for sustainability and chief economist, said the region’s recovery trajectory had been interrupted after an improving trend. IATA said Middle Eastern international traffic weakened further in August, reversing the gradual stabilisation seen since the Iran war in February.

International demand for Middle Eastern carriers fell 14.2 per cent from a year earlier, while capacity declined 9 per cent. The international load factor dropped 4.8 percentage points to 79.1 per cent. Traffic on Middle East-Asia routes contracted 11.7 per cent, compared with an 8.6 per cent decline in July.

Globally, international passenger demand decreased 0.9 per cent year-on-year, with capacity unchanged and the load factor down 0.8 percentage points at 85 per cent. Excluding Middle Eastern airlines, international demand increased 1.3 per cent.

Performance varied markedly by region. European carriers posted 2.1 per cent growth in international demand, while capacity increased 2.8 per cent. Europe-Asia traffic expanded 12.2 per cent, but transatlantic traffic fell 2.4 per cent, including declines from the UK and France.

Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a 0.1 per cent fall in international demand and a 0.9 per cent reduction in capacity. Traffic within Asia declined 2 per cent, while the Asia-North America corridor grew 2.5 per cent.

North American carriers reported a 1.7 per cent decline in international demand and a 1.1 per cent capacity reduction. Latin American and African airlines were stronger, each recording 6.7 per cent growth in international passenger demand. Latin American capacity rose 6.4 per cent, while African capacity increased 8.3 per cent.

Latin America and the Caribbean led regional growth at 5.3 per cent, followed by Africa at 4.4 per cent. Asia-Pacific demand rose 1.4 per cent and Europe gained 0.7 per cent. North America declined 2.2 per cent. Capacity expanded in every region except the Middle East and North America, with Africa recording the largest increase at 7.2 per cent.

The divergence left passenger loads under pressure. Europe retained the highest load factor at 87.5 per cent, followed by Asia-Pacific at 85.9 per cent.

Domestic passenger demand fell 0.5 per cent globally, despite a 0.7 per cent increase in capacity. The domestic load factor declined 1.1 percentage points to 85.3 per cent.

India’s domestic market registered the steepest contraction among the six major domestic markets tracked separately by IATA, with demand down 7.5 per cent year-on-year. Capacity fell only 1.2 per cent, pushing the load factor down 5.4 percentage points to 78.7 per cent.

Domestic demand in the United States declined 2.9 per cent and Japan fell 2 per cent. China moved in the opposite direction, with domestic passenger demand increasing 5.8 per cent during the summer travel period. Brazil grew 4.3 per cent and Australia 2.3 per cent.

Owens Thomsen said global connectivity was generally weaker in August, apart from important exceptions including China’s domestic market. She said the coming months would show whether higher energy prices, which have reduced travellers’ purchasing power, and geopolitical instability were prompting passengers to adjust travel budgets.