Luxury flats reshape Dubai housing boom

Dubai’s top-end apartment market has moved from a narrow niche into a major source of residential sales value, as buyers increasingly pay more than Dhs10m for branded, waterfront and high-positioned flats.

Transaction data for flat sales from 2016 to 24 June 2026 shows the scale of the shift. Sales of Dhs10m-plus apartments rose from 71 deals worth Dhs1.22bn in 2016 to 2,003 deals worth Dhs44.04bn in 2025. The segment has recorded 726 transactions worth Dhs17.81bn so far this year, indicating that demand remains substantial even as the pace of deals has eased from last year’s peak.

The figures underline a structural change in Dubai’s residential market. Flats above Dhs10m accounted for only 1.21 per cent of all apartment transactions in 2025, but they generated 13.66 per cent of total flat sales value. This year, the share by number of deals stands at 1.16 per cent, while the value share has risen to 14.45 per cent. That points to a thinner but more valuable market, where fewer buyers are contributing a larger share of overall apartment spending.

The first-half comparison shows a more selective cycle rather than a retreat from luxury property. Dhs10m-plus flat sales declined from 868 transactions in the first half of 2025 to 726 transactions up to 24 June this year. Total value slipped from Dhs18.88bn to Dhs17.81bn over the same comparison. Yet average pricing has strengthened, helped by a concentration of premium launches and continued demand for trophy assets.

Off-plan sales remain the main driver. In 2016, off-plan Dhs10m-plus flat sales were worth Dhs968.6m, equal to 79.11 per cent of the segment’s value. By 2025, the figure had risen to Dhs35.79bn, or 81.25 per cent of the category. This year, off-plan sales account for 83.94 per cent of high-end apartment value, showing how developers have increasingly shaped the luxury market through branded residences, serviced schemes and landmark towers.

The ready market has not disappeared. Completed Dhs10m-plus flat sales increased from Dhs255.8m in 2016 to Dhs8.26bn in 2025. But the larger growth has come from project-led sales, where buyers commit to future delivery in exchange for location, architecture, hotel branding, services and scarcity. The trend has also shifted risk towards delivery schedules, build quality and resale liquidity once large numbers of premium units reach completion.

The geography of luxury apartment demand has widened. Burj Khalifa and Palm Jumeirah dominated the market in 2016, when Burj Khalifa accounted for 53.08 per cent of Dhs10m-plus flat value and Palm Jumeirah for 25.72 per cent. Palm Jumeirah later became the main centre of activity, contributing 66.75 per cent in 2022. Since 2023, the market has become more distributed, with Business Bay, Dubai Marina, Dubai Water Canal, Jumeirah First and Jumeirah Second gaining ground.

Palm Jumeirah remains a core address, but its share has narrowed as new projects elsewhere have attracted ultra-high-net-worth buyers. Its share of Dhs10m-plus flat value fell to 37.33 per cent in 2023, 19.49 per cent in 2024 and 16.91 per cent in 2025, before rising to 21.06 per cent this year. The change reflects a broader luxury map rather than a decline in the island’s prestige.

The market has also deepened above the Dhs10m threshold. The Dhs10m-Dhs20m band remains the largest by transaction count, but higher bands have become more significant. In 2025, Dhs20m-Dhs50m flats accounted for Dhs16.36bn in sales, while Dhs50m-plus transactions reached Dhs10.11bn. This year, Dhs50m-plus flat sales have already reached Dhs5.70bn.

Pricing data shows that buyers are paying more for less space. The average size of Dhs10m-plus flats declined from 5,517 sq ft in 2016 to 4,202 sq ft this year. Median size dropped from 5,253 sq ft to 3,230 sq ft. During the same period, the weighted average price per square foot rose from Dhs3,126 to Dhs5,839.