OPEC+ inches production upward amid surplus risk

Oil prices edged higher after OPEC+ approved a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels per day from October, signalling a deliberate shift from propping up prices to recapturing market share even as the possibility of oversupply looms.

A rapid, 11-minute virtual meeting resulted in the decision by eight key alliance members to introduce a restrained output lift, clearly OPEC+ inches production upward amid surplus risk. That modest hike marks the start of unwinding an additional tranche of voluntary cuts—around 1.65 million barrels per day—that were originally scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026.

Brent crude gained approximately 34 cents to trade at $65.84 per barrel, while U. S. West Texas Intermediate rose about 30 cents to $62.17 a barrel, trimming losses incurred last week following a soft U. S. jobs report. Analysts see the price rebound as partly driven by relief over the modest hike and technical factors, alongside concerns that looming U. S. sanctions on Russian oil may curb supply.

OPEC+ members—including Saudi Arabia, Russia and several Gulf producers—have been gradually rolling back earlier cuts since April, with previous monthly increases topping 550,000 barrels. This latest move, while smaller in volume, is seen as a strategic signal that the group is prioritising global market positioning over immediate price support. Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy commented, “The barrels may be small, but the message is big,” underscoring the symbolic weight of the alliance’s decision.

Not all members can raise output equally—only Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have sufficient spare capacity to make notable additions. Others face physical and contractual limitations to boost deliveries.

Despite the gradual rollback of cuts, analysts warn that the ramp-up, combined with rising non-OPEC+ output, could push the oil market into surplus territory by early 2026. Goldman Sachs, while holding its 2025 price forecast steady, flagged muted price risks for 2026, with expected average Brent and WTI prices in the mid-$50s.

The alliance has reaffirmed its flexibility to adjust future output, including the ability to accelerate, pause or even reverse course as market conditions evolve. Members will meet again on 5 October to review developments and determine whether to extend or amend the output ramp.