Matein Khalid My strategy recommendation to my friends was to short Brent crude at or above $120 for the $65 target I got from the world’s pre-eminent oil economist/OPEC watcher Ed Morse. The short Brent idea has been a money gusher now that Brent has plunged 7% in today’s session to 99 as I write. The fall in oil prices was inevitable. King Dollar is at 20 […]
Matein Khalid This is definitely not the best of all possible Panglossian macro worlds as the S&P 500 is 20% below its January peak, growth stocks continue to get crushed on Nasdaq while credit spreads have almost doubled and Brent crude is at $114. The Powell Fed waited too long to tighten with its myopic mantra of “inflation is transitory” and has pivoted to monetary tightening at […]
Matein Khalid Massive buying of Treasury bonds since last evening when we hit 3.18% yield on the UST 10. UST 10 yield fell to 3.00% in Asia, 2.97% in London and is now only 2.94% in New York. This is a very unusual move in a 24 hour period. I think some major financial institution is in trouble and fear is making big money move cash into […]
Matein Khalid King Dollar is now on a rampage that will redefine global capital flows and have a seismic impact on the economies, financial markets and even politics of Europe, Asia and EM, which should now invite Britain to join their club since sterling is a mere 1.25 and Bo Jo antiques would make him an ideal third world tinpot dictator though bring your own booze to […]
Matein Khalid The mini crash in crude oil in Asia was triggered by the rumour that China’s zero Covid policy means that Beijing will join Shanghai, the world’s largest port and the PRC’s financial capital, in a draconian lockdown that will gut demand for petroleum products in the world’s second largest oil importer. Brent has fallen almost $40 from its post-Ukraine invasion high and it’s evident that […]
Matein Khalid A paranoid autocrat is never a rational decision maker and has historically sent untold millions of humans to their deaths for nothing. So Adolf Hitler ranted and raved in his Berlin Führerbunker even though it was obvious that Nazi Germany had lost the war by late 1944. Stalin cynically starved millions of people in Ukraine and Mao’s Great Leap Forward cost 50 million lives in […]
Matein Khalid The Russian invasion of Ukraine is both a humanitarian tragedy and an economic disaster. Something is dangerously wrong in a world where its second largest oil producer is now a pariah state that makes a mockery of international law and will soon be crippled once its banks are ejected from SWIFT. Russia and Ukraine are also the source of almost one third the world’s wheat/corn […]
By Matein Khalid The wicked witch of Wall Street waved her ursine broomstick over the global financial market in mid-November and all hell broke loose on the US equity indices. The Nasdaq was slammed by 18% at its recent 13,350 low and has broken its 200 day moving average and dozens of its high multiple components are down 30, 40 and even 50% from their highs. The […]
By Matein Khalid It is not the end, it is not even the beginning of the end but it is the end of the beginning. Churchill’s famous words express my own feelings about the latest psychotic Bitcoin cycle. This crypto-puppy was at an all time high of $68,990 last November but then plunged to $33,000 in its January lows. So whatever crypto is, it is definitely not […]
Matein Khalid As multinational diversify supply chains from China, Vietnam obviously benefits. Vietnam has always fascinated me yet it is a frontier market I have not had the opportunity to visit, thanks to the pandemic lockdowns in Ho Chi Minh City. Yet I still believe that Vietnam is the beneficiary of major macro trends that are transforming the geopolitics, economics and financial markets of South East Asia. […]
By Matein Khalid 2021 was a classic annus horribilis in the Chinese stock market as even a wannabe bottom fisher in Alibaba at 160 like moa can attest. Yet the 37% plunge in MSCI China index and Hong Kong red chips was the worst financial performance in the Middle Kingdom since the 2008 global financial meltdown. The pain was most concentrated in Chinese internet and property developer […]
By Matein Khalid As the 5% crude oil plunge in both WTI and Brent on fears of Omicron demand shock demonstrates, the fate of the virus is inextricably linked to global economic growth, Fed policy and thus commodities returns. Yet thanks to black gold’s stellar performance the GSCI Energy index was a winner in 2021, up 47%. Even Brent rebounded 4% to 74 a barrel in its […]
By Matein Khalid The financial markets gave a green light to risk assets after the December FOMC conclave because the Federal Reserve has shifted its monetary strategy from post pandemic money printing to a traditional anti-inflation stance. Chairman Powell’s decision to drop his “inflation is transitory” argument and the FOMC’s decision to double the taper with three planned rate hikes in 2022 is thus a game changer […]
By Matein Khalid Every time I noticed a Garuda flight in Jakarta airport, visited the ancient Thai capital of Ayodhya or saw the Ramayana frescos in the royal palace complex in Bangkok or bantered with the Sikh ladies in Singapore’s Changi airport, I was reminded about India’s ancient civilizational links with Southeast Asia. In fact, Vietnamese slang still calls Indians “Klinga”, after the ancient Kalinga kingdom in […]
By Matein Khalid I will never forget watching the 2006 soccer World Cup final in Berlin on TV with my two then nine year old twins, eating pizza and watching our common idol Shakira come out in her belly dancing costume and exchange karate moves on the world stage with her Spanish Harlem (El Barrio) with homeboy partner as she sang “hips don’t lie”. Trust me as […]
By Matein Khalid Speculative manias in the financial markets invariably culminate in hysteria and greed run amok. So the 25% fall in the $2.5 billion Paytm IPO, India’s celebrated fintech could well be a cycle peak for the current zeitgeist, just as the busted IPO of Reliance Power was in the Dalal Street asset bubble of 2007-08. Mr. Marketji is obviously unimpressed by Paytm’s brand name investors […]
By Matein Khalid Brent crude is now down 11% to 73 and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is now down a shocking 13% at 68. President Biden may wish to remember the old Persian proverb “do not wish for anything too badly. You may just get it”. Biden had green lighted a release from the American Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) last week but oil traders actually bid up […]
By Matein Khalid Von Neumann’s Game Theory can model strategic behaviour in the global oil market, as once Admiral Yamamoto used it to model the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbour and the IDF used it to model Israel’s pre-emptive strike against Nasser’s Egypt in June 1967. So the US strategic reserves release signals the Biden White House’s displeasure with petro-inflation. Biden’s move was priced into the oil […]
By Matein Khalid I remember a time when Lebanon was called “le rêve d’orient” by its Francophile elite. This was definitely the case in the affluent enclaves of Ashrafieh, Beit Mary and Rue Munot where the jeunesse dorée partied with Galic abandon in the mid 1990’s. This was a time of hope for a country still haunted by the nightmare of a civil war that had witnessed […]
Matein Khalid The Middle Kingdom has been a black hole for emerging markets equitywalas since mid-2020. The PBOC kept monetary policy far too tight at a time when the global pandemic necessitated some credit acceleration. The economic slowdown after the Wuhan virus was worse than Street consensus. The property developer Evergrande’s $300 billion debt woes unnerved the Chinese banking system and yuan debt market. The geopolitical rhetoric […]
Matein Khalid Trend is your friend until the trend comes to an end. So this has been a fabulous year to own US equities and I have surfed the Big Board/Nasdaq wave for high stakes with even occasional high octane leverage to bet on the right puppy. I am now paranoid about the risk of a major market selloff in November. After all, as Dr. Henry Kissinger […]
Matein Khalid In the winter of 2018 on the eve of a trip to South Africa with my close friends from Roshni, an enclave of some very special people just outside Johannesburg. I had published an article in the GCC/British media (I used to write for newspapers and magazines then) on software stocks (https://lnkd.in/dTgHd9Wp). My analysis convinced me that MSFT was a superlative buy just below $100. […]
Matein Khalid I have been a consistent bear on the Turkish lira from the time President Erdogan, a political populist and former soccer player, decided that he was a better monetary economist than the four central bank governors in Ankara that he sacked in the past decade. I pleaded with my friends in Dubai/Pakistan not to bottom fish in the Turkish lira during the post coup meltdown […]
Matein Khalid In retrospect, the news that China had banned Bitcoin mining/trading in July and the subsequent sell-off to BTC in the early $30,000s was an ideal opportunity to accumulate the world’s most credible digital currency. Beijing fulmination against crypto is routine and BTC has always recovered from PRC inspired sell-offs. The euphoria now is mainly due to the fact that the SEC has agreed to the […]
Matein Khalid I found this letter from Erin Bali, co-founder of Udemy in 2010, utterly inspirational (thanks ZoPa). It is available on page 96 of the S1 Udemy just filed with the SEC last week for a Nasdaq IPO. S1-page 96: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1607939/000119312521291460/d163445ds1.htm Education has the power to transform the lives of human beings and nothing is more cruel than a country that denies education to its poorest, […]
Matein Khalid My periodic please-all summer asking my friends to accumulate energy stocks on the 77-65 Brent sell off in July has been vindicated with a vengeance this autumn as energy is the best performing sector in both September and October with the XLE now up a stellar 46%, who could have imagined that Oxy would rise from 10 to 35 when Brent was $35, the world […]
Matein Khalid Today is the milestone moment for Manju and I as well as a special constellation of our close friends who shared my conviction that Udemy was destined to morph into the world’s pre-eminent EdTech marketplace. These were the same special friends/investors who entrusted us to invest $17.5 million in a syndicate we led to buy Udemy shares in the pre-IPO market at a valuation of […]
Matein Khalid The history of Wall Street has taught me to be nervous on Mondays in October. This Monday is also crowded with meetings with strategic partners and friends from across the seas and the Gulf. So my market call must be short and sweet. I had given 10 reasons why September augured to be a dodgy month for the US stock market. Despite Friday’s impressive index […]
Matein Khalid Brazil stock market performance unfortunately vindicates General Charles de Gaulle’s morose prediction “Brazil is a country of the future and always will be”. In my Wall Street salad days, we were neurologically programmed to buy Brazilian equities when crude oil/soft commodities price boomed, when the global economic growth was in acceleration mode and when a right wing pro-Uncle Sam President with close ties to the […]
Matein Khalid I had recommended a strategic buy on Airbnb (ABNB) at 137 in July after a 20-point hit as I saw multiple catalysts for a bull run (https://lnkd.in/gEfT4Bwy). Since ABNB opened at 176 on Nasdaq today, I have now decided that I have to milk this cow via leveraged longs/put sales/out of the money calls to an obscene scale and the risk/reward calculus on high valuation […]
