President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that he expected the war to end only after the November 3 US midterm elections, while acknowledging that Washington was not actively seeking negotiations. His remarks came as the conflict entered its seventh month and fighting around the Strait of Hormuz intensified sharply.
Trump said Iran could no longer sustain the economic pressure being imposed by the United States and predicted Tehran would relent after the vote. He also said oil prices would fall once the fighting ended. Vice President JD Vance, however, declined to give a timetable for an end to hostilities, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding Washington’s expectations.
Iran has shown no public indication that it is ready to accept US terms. Tehran has instead continued to use pressure on Gulf shipping as leverage against the American naval blockade and sanctions restricting Iranian oil exports. Iranian officials have demanded changes to US restrictions and arrangements governing passage through Hormuz before any durable settlement.
The immediate military picture has moved in the opposite direction. Iran said it attacked 10 vessels near the Strait of Hormuz after US forces sank five Iranian oil tankers. Washington disputed Iranian claims that American ships were hit. The confrontation represented the fiercest maritime exchange of the war so far and pushed fears over commercial shipping back to the centre of the crisis.
Oil markets reacted quickly. Brent crude climbed above $100 a barrel on Wednesday and rose further on Thursday, reaching about $105 as tanker attacks and threats to regional export routes increased the risk of further supply losses. US West Texas Intermediate also moved above $100.
Shipping through Hormuz remains far below normal levels. Preliminary vessel-tracking data showed only seven ships transited the strait on Wednesday, down from 12 a day earlier and below a 10-day average of 14. No liquefied natural gas tanker was recorded crossing the waterway that day, although some vessels may have travelled with tracking systems switched off.
The disruption extends beyond Hormuz. Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement has intensified attacks on Saudi targets and seized the Red Sea port of Mocha, adding pressure on the Bab el-Mandeb route used by vessels trying to avoid the Gulf chokepoint. Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its Red Sea export infrastructure at Yanbu, where crude and condensate loadings have recovered this month after falling sharply in August.
The International Energy Agency said in August that Gulf oil production remained 8.3 million barrels a day below pre-war levels in July. Regional exports, including routes bypassing Hormuz, fell to about 15 million barrels a day after the strait was effectively closed again and attacks on tankers and energy infrastructure resumed.
The agency also cut its outlook for global oil supply, forecasting a decline of 4.3 million barrels a day in 2026, while estimating that high fuel prices and disrupted supply chains would reduce global oil demand by 1.6 million barrels a day this year.
OPEC+ has little immediate ability to offset the disruption. The group kept its October output policy unchanged this week after agreed production increases failed to translate into equivalent additional supply because several Middle East exporters could not move normal volumes to market.
Even a ceasefire would not restore trade immediately. Energy specialists have warned that Gulf producers would need time to restart shut-in production, while tanker owners, crews and insurers would require confidence that shipping lanes were reliably safe before returning at scale. Mine clearance, vessel backlogs and elevated insurance costs could slow any recovery.
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