West Bengal is set for the second and final phase of polling on April 29 in 142 seats out of the total of 294 in the state assembly. After the holding of the first phase of polls on April 23 in 152 seats, PM Narendra Modi, who was campaigning in another part of the state on the same day, declared that the BJP had swept the first phase getting more than 100 seats in the first phase. Home Minister Amit Shah, who was also on campaign trail, made it more categorical by saying that he had made all the calculations and he found that the BJP would be getting 110 seats in the first phase. Both declared that BJP would be forming the state government ousting the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee next month after the results were known on May 4.
There is nothing wrong for a senior party leader in declaring that their party will be winning the elections and forming the new government. In Bengal, Trinamool Congress led by the Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee is in power since 2011, the year the Left Front government was ousted by her. After that, Mamata has enjoyed three terms. Now she is in the election battle for the fourth term. There is certainly anti-incumbency. This is the most opportune time for the BJP to oust the TMC from power through mobilisation of all its resources, political, financial as also central agencies.
The Bengal election in 2026 is witnessing unprecedented developments which so far have not taken place in any electoral battle in any state. In the present cycle of elections held also in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Assam and Puducherry, it was only in Bengal that the Home Minister Amit Shah continuously stayed for fifteen days giving directions from his hotel to the BJP leaders. This had immediate impact on the law-and-order administration, especially the IPS officers who are mostly nominated as police observers with complete control on law and order in election time.
Already, through the SIR, large-scale deletions have taken place in select constituencies with concentration of minority population. This SIR was the brain-child of Shah and he wanted its implementation in Bengal as an experiment for future state assembly elections, as also Lok Sabha elections. The Election Commission also acted in a partial manner by sending a large list of so-called disturbers in the election period. There is nothing new in this, but this time, the list mostly contained TMC members’ names. Reports say that the list was prepared on the basis of information supplied by the state BJP leaders.
This instruction of the ECI could not be implemented because of intervention of Calcutta High Court, but now reports say that through police observers, another round up of activists affiliated with TMC might be on the way. Home Minister has left for Delhi after the campaigning ended for the second phase on Monday, but his shadow still prevails over the police administration of the state.
Mamata is fighting an unequal battle in 2026 elections, but at the end of the day, people are voting. Both PM and Shah made some calculations and on the basis of that, they are still predicting the BJP victory, but those calculations may not finally bear fruit as the TMC under Mamata has taken enough precautions to take care of those eventualities. BJP’s target was to immobilize the TMC’s consultancy firm I-PAC before the elections. That has been done. I-PAC has stopped functioning for 20 days and will not be available to the TMC till April 29. That has hit TMC preparations to some extent, as already an alternative plan was formed and that is functioning.
BJP’s plan to make use of Humayun Kabir to split Muslim votes in Murshidabad district has not fructified. Kabir is already disgraced and his party candidates hardly mattered in the first phase of elections on April 23.Mamata’s main base is Muslims, women and the unorganized workers, including women. As regards Muslims, there was some churning in few districts, but that has subsided. All studies indicate that in Bengal, out of 294 seats, in 146 seats, Muslims have a presence of more than 25 per cent. In 75 seats, out of that, the presence is more than 40 per cent. In 2021 assembly polls, TMC got 131 of the 146 seats while the BJP got 14 and the ISF, an ally of Left Front, one. This may go down slightly due to the SIR deletions but the huge turnout also may lead to big rise in Muslim votes.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a big issue of the defeat of Women’s Bill linked to Delimitation in Lok Sabha special session and hoped that it would help BJP in Bengal to woo women voters. But it was a political disaster. BJP leaders got the feedback from the ground and in fact told their cadres not to use Women’s Bill as a campaign plank. Even Prime Minister and Amit Shah also focused on lawlessness towards women in Bengal, but skipped reference to Women’s Bill. The only issue which adversely affected the TMC base is joblessness of youth. There is big dissatisfaction on that. But BJP’s coming to power is also not seen as a way out to solve joblessness.
In this election, the Left Front has been showing some aggression in their campaign. Many young leaders have come up and they are carrying out intensive campaigns drawing attention of young and old voters alike. But the hard reality is that still the voting base of the Left is varying between 6 to maximum 9 per cent. Even if the votes which went to BJP in 2021 polls came back to Left fold, that will not be sufficient for a victory. The Left cannot expect a turnaround, even though a few seats may be won. The Left has to be ready for a long haul on the basis of the limited achievements in the 2026 assembly elections. They should work hard for the 2029 Lok Sabha polls followed by 2031 assembly elections.
All indications suggest TMC will have a comfortable majority crossing the figure of 200 out of 294 seats. In 2021 elections, TMC got 215 seats and the BJP 77, though BJP’s actual strength in the assembly has come down to 65 due to defections. In the last five years since 2021, TMC won all by polls by increasing margins. This trend can only be totally reversed if there is a massive wave against Mamata and her government. TMC as a party has been the focus of attacks on the issue of corruption, but that is still not impacting Mamata’s personal brand and her immense rapport with the people, especially the rural women. That is the saving grace for the TMC as a party. And that will be the factor that is going to work in the second phase of polling on April 29 also. (IPA Service)
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