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James M Dorsey

James M Dorsey Even by Israeli standards, Uri Tzafon (Awaken North) is a far-right fringe group. Amid mounting tension with Lebanese Shiite political group and militia, Hezbollah, along the Lebanon-Israel border, Uri Tzafon is calling for Israeli settlement of southern Lebanon. The group has yet to gain traction. Uri Tzafon’s membership is in the low teens. Less than 300 people attended the group’s recent online conference. Few, if […]

James M Dorsey Israeli military triumphs and exploits often produce battlefield victories that fail to garner political gains. The Gaza war has changed that paradigm. It has produced neither a military nor a political victory. Adding fuel to the fire, Israel has abandoned the notion that soft power is as important as hard power in the vein of scholar Joseph Nye, who recently cautioned that “ignoring or neglecting […]

By James M Dorsey The coming week or two could determine Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s political fate and reshape the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s Gaza war. That is, if Netanyahu fails to comply with war cabinet member Benny Gantz’s demand that the prime minister produce a plan for the post-war administration of GaIf Gantz […]

The post Next Week Could Mark A Make Or Break For Netanyahu’s Political Future first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

James M Dorsey The coming week or two could determine Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s political fate and reshape the Biden administration’s support for Israel’s Gaza war. That is, if Netanyahu fails to comply with war cabinet member Benny Gantz’s demand that the prime minister produce a plan for the post-war administration of Ga If Gantz resigns, he will likely be joined by fellow war cabinet member and […]

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James M Dorsey Jordan’s King Abdullah is caught between a rock and a hard place.  Hamas and its regional supporters, as well as Israeli politicians and vigilantes, are pressuring King Abdullah from both ends of the political spectrum. Iranian-backed Syrian and Iraqi militants seek to draw the kingdom, in which Palestinians account for at least 50 per cent of the population, into the Gaza war. Hamas, the […]

James M Dorsey US President Joe Biden doesn’t fit the mould of a high-risk gambler. Yet, gambling is the crux of his velvet glove dealings with Israel. With one eye on Israeli politics and the other on presidential elections in the United States in six months, Biden is walking a tightrope. The stakes and the costs couldn’t be higher. At its core, despite the administration’s escalating verbal […]

James M Dorsey Diaspora Jews, Palestinian Israelis, and Turkish Kurds have more in common than meets the eye. The similarities in how the three minority communities define themselves offer insights into what will make either a one- or two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict viable. To be sure, it’s hard to see, amid the Gaza carnage and Israel’s blinded and traumatised view of future relations with the Palestinians, how the two […]

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James M Dorsey This week’s Gazan short-lived celebration of a ceasefire that was not to be, highlights what is at stake in the seven-month-old war and Israel’s refusal to end the carnage. Thousands poured into Gazan streets within minutes of Hamas advising it had accepted a Qatar and Egyptian ceasefire proposal. “We have shown the world that we survived this war as Palestinians. We stood our ground on our land. […]

James M Dorsey Israel’s latest Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange proposal puts the ball in Hamas’ court. The proposal, drafted in recent days by Israeli negotiators and Egyptian interlocutors, goes some way to address Hamas’ long-standing demands. The proposal makes concessions Israel has rejected in the past but raises as many questions as it opens doors to possible breakthroughs in the long-stalled negotiations mediated by Qatar and Egypt. In response, Hamas said […]

James M Dorsey An Israeli ground offensive in the southern Gazan enclave of Rafah is a question of when, not if. Not because Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is oblivious to US and international pressure but because it could prove to be make or break for Israel’s embattled leader. Netanyahu has promised “total victory” in the Gaza war and to “finish the job” in Rafah. The stakes for  Netanyahu could […]

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James M Dorsey Multiple overt and covert wars have pushed the Middle East to the edge of a cliff. Increased tension between Iran and Israel complicates efforts to pull the Middle East back from the abyss. With the two archenemies walking a fine line between waging covert or overt war, escalation between Israel and Iran has the greatest potential to push the Middle East off the cliff. […]

James M Dorsey Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is tying himself up in knots as he grudgingly, and only to a limited degree, bows to US President Joe Biden’s demands. In doing so, Netanyahu is puncturing Swiss-cheese size holes into Israel’s Gaza narrative, making it easier for Mr. Biden to take him publicly to task. Biden has demanded that Israel allow the unfettered flow of desperately needed humanitarian […]

James M Dorsey The Greater Middle East is a ticking time bomb. Generations in war-wracked Palestine, Syria, and Yemen have little, if anything, to look forward to. Moreover, discontent is mounting and could explode anytime in countries like Jordan, Egypt, and Iran. Palestine is a pressure cooker. Gazan youth has known little else than two decades of wars and siege. Beyond the trauma of the latest six-month-old war, Gaza’s next […]

James M Dorsey Muhammad Manassara walked in late February into a gas station near the West Bank settlement of Eli. Armed with an automatic weapon, Manassara killed two people before he was shot dead by the owner of a restaurant at the station, the site of the killing last summer of four Israelis. Three weeks later, Mujahid Barakat Mansour, a father of two small children, opened fire near the […]

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James M Dorsey Israel’s refusal to lift restrictions on the unfettered entry into Gaza of food, medical supplies, and other desperately needed humanitarian goods, has less to do with a stand-alone starvation policy and more with who controls distribution in the Strip. Both Israel and Hamas see control of aid distribution as a building block of who comes out on top once the guns fall silent. The […]

James M Dorsey Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s walls are caving in. His multiple battles fall into two categories: keeping his increasingly fragile government in place and fighting a war he has already lost in the court of public opinion and possibly on the ground in Gaza if measured by the prime minister’s war goals. On Monday, Israel suffered its most significant international setback since 2016 with […]

James M Dorsey A just-published Palestinian public opinion survey offers pointers for what a successful transition from the devastating Gaza war to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will have to entail. The survey’s pointers take on added significance as the United States, Europe and Arab states seek to turn the fallout of Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel and the carnage caused by Israel’s assault on the Strip […]

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James M Dorsey This year’s US presidential elections are not the only potential hurdle confronting President Joe Biden’s multi-pronged vision for a Middle East peace once the Gaza war ends. So is Israeli intransigence, the prospect of a long-term insurgency in post-war Gaza, and increasing Saudi Chinese technological cooperation. The Biden administration is pushing for a multi-pronged comprehensive Middle East deal that would not only end the […]

James M Dorsey \Failed efforts to achieve a Gaza ceasefire on the eve of Ramadan leave innocent Gazans in the lurch, highlight the gap between Israel and Hamas’ demands in negotiations, and raise the stakes for the United States. At the core of the stalled negotiations is Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s insistence on continuing Israel’s assault after a ceasefire and an exchange of some Hamas-held hostages kidnapped […]

James M Dorsey The Gaza war has turned Palestine into a lightning rod for mounting frustration and discontent in Arab autocracies such as Egypt, Jordan, Tunisia, Algeria, and Morocco. Concerned that the war could mobilise segments of civil society, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates where any form of public protest is banned, have cracked down on expressions of solidarity with Gaza, including the sporting of […]

James M Dorsey A proposed temporary Gaza ceasefire and prisoner exchange appears designed to buy war-battered Gazans relief while enabling Israel and Hamas to claim a success. However, whether Israel or Hamas emerges as the ultimate victor will be determined by whether the truce becomes permanent and the war ends. Negotiated by Qatar, Egypt, the United States, Israel, and Hamas, the deal would be whittled down to […]

James M Dorsey Two recent soccer incidents suggest that beyond optics little has changed in the Saudi-Iranian rivalry since China mediated the restoration of diplomatic relations between the two countries a year ago. On the contrary, the Gaza war has highlighted the potential threat Iran and its non-state allies pose to the kingdom, even if both countries have toned down their rhetoric, are cautious not to provoke the other, […]

By James M Dorsey The irony of Middle Eastern geopolitics is that Israel makes it increasingly difficult for US President Joe Biden to support it, while Iran strengthens domestic US anti-Iranian and pro-Israeli hardliners. The hardliners are emboldened by the failure of calibrated US strikes in response to numerous attacks on US forces in the […]

The post Iran Facilitates Biden’s Support For Israel, But Tel Aviv Makes It Increasingly Difficult first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

By James M Dorsey A recent Lebanese public opinion poll suggests there may be limits to Iran-backed Shiite militia Hezbollah’s restraint in confronting Israel. It also suggests why Iran feels emboldened by escalating tensions in the Middle East. The poll results are significant with Hezbollah and Israel engaged in tit-for-tat cross border attacks that both […]

The post Hardliners Ride High In Miidle East As Border Hostilities Escalate Unexpectedly first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

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By James M Dorsey History repeats itself. Palestinian airplane hijackings and attacks on Israeli civilians in Israel as well as on Israeli and Jewish targets abroad pockmarked the 1970s and 1980s. The violence put the Palestinian issue on the world agenda. The violence erupted, and at times, was driven by fierce debate among Palestinian guerilla […]

The post History Repeats Itself With The Killing Of Senior Hamas Official Saleh Al-Arouri first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

By James M Dorsey Think that the heart wrenching images streaming out of the Gaza Strip suggest that Israel has Hamas over a barrel? Think again. Talks in Europe and in Cairo suggest otherwise. The talks stalled after Hamas insisted that it would not engage in prisoner exchange negotiations unless Israel halts fighting and agrees […]

The post Israel, Hamas Prisoner Exchange Talks Further Mired first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

By James M Dorsey Israel wasn’t slamming the door on renewed indirect prisoner swap negotiations with Hamas when it this week barred David Barnea, the head of Mossad, the country’s foreign intelligence agency, from travelling to Qatar to explore possibilities for renewed exchanges. Instead, it was manoeuvring for greater leverage in potential talks and expressing […]

The post Hamas Manoeuvring Complicates Efforts To Secure Prisoner Swaps With Israel first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

James M Dorsey The United Arab Emirates walks a geopolitical tightrope, juggling big power rivalries and mounting regional instability fuelled by the Gaza war.  Putin’s movements beyond the confines of Russia are restricted. Signatories of the Rome Statute that established the International Criminal Court are obliged to arrest Putin against whom the court has issued a Ukraine-related international arrest warrant. Visiting the UAE and Saudi Arabia was a […]

By James M Dorsey Spanish philosopher George Santayana didn’t have Palestine in mind when he coined the phrase, ‘history repeats itself. ‘Yet, Santayana’s maxim may apply to Hamas when comparing the group’s political evolution to the 16-year-torturous road traversed by the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) from classification by Israel and its Western allies as a […]

The post Counterintuitive Palestine Politics: Hamas May Be Treading A Path Paved By PLO Earlier first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

By James M Dorsey Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel has not just divided Muslim political leaders. It’s also solicited diverse responses from religious figures and institutions, reflecting deeper divisions about what Islam stands for in the 21st century. At the core of the differences is the ability and willingness to empathise with innocent victims […]

The post Gaza Conflict Ends Up Separating Wheat From Chaff Among Religious Leaders first appeared on Latest India news, analysis and reports on IPA Newspack.

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