|By Matein Khalid| While the S&P500 fell only 1.2% last week, things will get uglier in April and May. Fed chair Yellen is playing with fire in talking down US interest rates and inflation risk. The Volatility Index (VIX), Wall Street’s barometer of greed and fear, does not capture the rising global financial and political risks at only 15. Market breadth, sector divergence, smart money flows, sentiment, leadership, […]
India’s most reliable source of foreign funding is under threat. Remittances fell to $15.8 billion last quarter, the lowest since April-June 2011 and a 9.4 percent drop from a year earlier, as the global slowdown and slumping oil prices reduce demand for foreign workers. Indians working abroad — from construction laborers in Dubai to Silicon Valley engineers — send home the most money in the world, helping to pay for […]
|By Matein Khalid| “Stop the murder, stop the lies, out, out, you nest of spies!” So chanted the crowd outside South Africa House on Trafalgar Square in the autumnal mists of London circa 1988. The anti-apartheid struggle was the moral compass of my generation, from the Soweto riots to Steve Biko’s murder to the horrific “necklacings in the townships and killing fields of the Limpopo to Madiba’s release […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| Hedge funds which bet on Saudi riyal’s dollar peg are reported to have lost heavily as the price rebound in the oil has apparently removed all immediate possibilities of Saudi Arabia abandoning the currency’s peg with the dollar. Several US hedge funds are understood to be among the losers. According to Bloomberg, contracts used to speculate on the kingdom’s exchange rate in the […]
|By Matein Khalid| I was surprised by the dovishness of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC policy statement last week given the white hot US labour market and metrics of wage inflation. Hence the $29 rally in gold, the plunge in the Volatility Index to 15, the fall in the US dollar and the surge in oil/mining shares. The Yellen Fed is still worried about deflation risk in China, Europe […]
|By Matein Khalid| It is no coincidence that the most profitable hotels on the planet are located in Makkah, the holiest city of Islam as the site of the Grand Mosque and the Kaaba. For fifteen centuries, Muslims have traveled to Makkah from all over the world for the Hajj and Umrah pilgrimages, making the city the highest source of inbound foreign visitors in Saudi Arabia. Makkah is […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| Pakistanis are the third largest non-Arab expatriate group investing in Dubai real estate, according to the Dubai Land Department (DLD). Pakistanis invested AED 8 billion in Dubai properties in 2015, out of the total investment from non-Arab expats surpassing AED 74 billion. Compared to 2014, their investment in the Dubai property market increased 6.7 per cent in 2015. With an investment of AED 30.64 […]
|By Matein Khalid| Six data points last week reinforce my conviction that the GCC’s property/credit market stress will only accelerate in 2016. One, Standard and Poors downgraded Saudi Arabia’s sovereign credit rating to A- while Bahrain and Oman are now both below investment grade. The new sovereign credit downgrade cycle in the GCC comes at a time when sukuk/debt new issuance volumes have plummeted by 50%, the […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| The need to part-finance funding gaps by the GCC countries through sovereign US dollar debt will complicate their efforts to refinance the bonds and loans maturing this year and the next, HSBC warned in a report on the GCC finances. Some $94 billion in foreign currency denominated bonds and syndicated loans by GCC countries are maturing this year or the next year, which […]
|By Matein Khalid| The sultanate of Oman has enjoyed phenomenal economic development success in the 45 year reign of His Majesty Sultan Qaboos bin Said. Modern Oman is one of the true social, political and economic success stories of the Arab world. However, the Achilles heel of the Omani economy is its huge dependence on oil and gas export earnings, 60% of the sultanate’s GDP. Standard and […]
/By Arabian Post Staff/ Standard & Poor’s has re-affirmed its view that Saudi riyal peg to the dollar, a subject currently topping market debate, is unlikely to be changed over the next few years. The rating agency’s rationale is that at a time of already significant change and regional geopolitical instability, politically conservative regimes such as those in the GCC are unlikely to increase uncertainty about their […]
|By Matein Khalid| The global credit cycle has an immediate impact on the UAE via oil prices, the US dollar peg, cross border bank credit flows, Federal Reserve monetary policy and world trade. The IMF has cut its 2016 growth forecast to 2.6%, the lowest since 2010. A leading developer just booked a 20 fold rise in penalties from walkaway offplan home buyers. Banks hire “loan rangers” […]
Markets are currently in a well-oiled “death spiral,” according to Citigroup Inc. analysts led by Jonathan Stubbs. “It appears that four inter-linked phenomena are driving a negative feedback loop in the global economy and across financial markets,” the analysts write, citing the resilient U.S. dollar, lower commodities prices, weaker trade and capital flows, and declining emerging market growth. “It seems reasonable to assume that another year of extreme moves in […]
|By Matein Khalid| “One country, two systems”. This was the historic formula under which Margaret Thatcher agreed to hand over the British Crown Colony of Hong Kong to the People’s Republic of China, then ruled by Paramount Leader Deng Xiao Ping. The Hong Kong dollar’s spike to 7.81, on the high end of its 7.75 – 7.85 band, demonstrates the sheer scale of the speculative attack against […]
The slump in the price of gold has brought investors all over the world closer to their much-loved asset. As gold, a known haven asset, became comparatively cheap in 2015, central banks showed a keen interest. Increased volatility in the world markets has caused the central banks to invest their money in haven assets. Central banks as a whole have added 175 tons of gold to their official reserves. The Chinese and […]
Saudi Arabia may further ease restrictions on foreign ownership in the economy and overhaul one of the world’s most restrictive visa systems as the kingdom seeks to draw investors to help reduce its reliance on oil exports. The world’s biggest oil exporter is considering allowing foreigners to own 100 percent of a company in at least four more industries, Mohanud Helal, secretary general of the Economic Cities […]
A 3D plastic cut-out of the Facebook logo is seen in this illustration in Zenica, Bosnia and Herzegovina, May 13, 2015. Reuters/Dado Ruvic Facebook Inc (FB.O) smashed investors’ expectations with a 52-percent jump in quarterly revenue as it sold more ads targeted at a fast-growing number of mobile users, sending its shares sharply higher after hours. The world’s biggest online social network bucked the trend of underwhelming […]
|By Matein Khalid| The collapse in Brent crude oil below $30, a 20% fall in the Tadawul share index in January 2016’s global equity bloodbath, the cut in fuel subsidies and geopolitical risk escalation in the Middle East has spawned speculation in financial markets that Saudi Arabia will devalue the kingdom’s riyal, now pegged at 3.75 against the US dollar. Senior princes of the royal family and […]
ECONOMY BEING HELD HOSTAGE BY BULLION MERCHANTS
By Nantoo Banerjee
Swiss banks may not be too happy with India’s latest round of searches for big Indian accounts there. But, largely impoverished India’s endless gold hunt, especially at a time when the global economy and trade are shrinking and stock markets around the world are going topsy-turvy following economic slow-down in China, has placed the Geneva-based World Gold Council on top of the world. India’s gold import last month hit a new 120-day high at nearly $4 billion while all other imports to the country shrank by over 15 per cent in value. The massive gold import by bullion merchants, mostly from Mumbai and Ahmedabad, widened the country’s trade deficit to $11.7 billion in just one month. In the pre-reform period, India’s annual trade deficit rarely topped $5 billion. During the current financial year 2015-16, t
The $15 trillion rout in global equity markets since May is reawakening the lure of gold for investors seeking safety. Hedge funds more than doubled their net-long position in bullion last week, just three weeks after they were the most-bearish ever. Investor holdings of gold through exchange-traded products are expanding at the fastest pace in a year, and the value of the ETPs has jumped by $3 […]
SAUDI ARABIA. 2015 has established itself as a record-breaking year for cross-border M&A post-financial crisis, according to a Cross-Border M&A Index* by global law firm Baker & McKenzie. With corporate deal-making activity at record highs, those companies are also executing record levels of cross-border transactions, a global trend reflected in the Middle East. Overall M&A in 2015 reached US$4.28 trillion, of which 39% were cross-border in nature […]
|By Lawrence Williams| With an increase of 21.8 tonnes in its gold reserves in December, Russia continues to build its central bank bullion holdings – largely through buying in its most of its own domestic production. Russia was the world’s third largest gold producer (after China and Australia) in 2014 in producing 266.2 tonnes – only 6 tonnes less than Australia. It will be interesting to see […]
The removal of sanctions on Iran may trigger at least $50 billion a year in foreign investment to finance a rebound in an economy hit by the oil slump, the country’s central bank governor said. “Our country can absorb a great deal of foreign investment, considering its potential,” Valiollah Seif said in an interview Wednesday at his office in Tehran, days after the trade and financial curbs […]
Pressured by plunging oil prices and costly wars in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia moved to stamp out speculation that it might be forced to break the link between its currency and the dollar. Authorities this week ordered banks to limit traders’ ability to bet against against the riyal, whose peg to the dollar has been a bulwark of the kingdom’s economic and financial stability since its […]
