/By Matein Khalid/Are we on the precipice of another spasm of intercontinental contagion in the emerging markets like 2018, or the Asian flu, tequila crisis, Russian rouble default or the Turkish banking crisis in the 1990’s. Yes. The Shanghai Composite Index has plunged 12% and (17% fall for Shenzhen) since Trump got nasty on the tortuous US-China trade dialogue. The IMF cut its global growth forecast to […]
/By Matein Khalid/ Uber Technologies goes public in the most controversial and global tech IPO since Facebook seven years ago. Uber bulls claim that the ride sharing colossus is another embryonic Amazon, a firm that will dominate the digital constellation of the next two decades. I disagree. Uber loses $4 billion per annum and has already been forced to surrender Russia/CIS to Yandex, China to Didi and […]
/Arabian Post Staff/ Emirates Group, which operates Emirates Airline – the world’s largest international carrier – reported a 44 percent decline in profits to US$631 million (Dh2.3 billion) in 2018-19 financial year ending March 31, 2019, despite achieving a 7 percent growth in revenue to reach US$29.8 billion (Dh109.3 billion). In line with the overall profit, the Group declared a dividend of Dh500 million (US$136 million) to its shareholder, […]
|By Matein Khalid|The GCC currency pegs to the US dollar have been prominent in international finance in place since the early 1980’s, in times of war and revolution, in times of economic boom and bust, in times of crude oil price surges and crashes. Yet the oil crash of 2014-16 was an inflection point in the economic history of the Arabian Gulf. Crude oil prices were $115 […]
|By Matein Khalid| I had recommended buying the British pound at 1.2700 against the US dollar in successive columns in the past two weeks. Sterling is at 1.3200 as I write, the trade is already hugely profitable. Cable has now closed above its crucial 200 day moving average in a clear trend reversal. As markets dismiss the risk of a no deal Brexit, I believe the pound […]
|By Matein Khalid|If Asia is a growth warrant on the global economy, the omens look awful as the IMF just warned the financial glitterati at Davos. Asian equities were the victims of the grim macro investment themes in 2018. Four Federal Reserve interest rate hikes forced Asian central banks to raise borrowing costs to protect embattled local currencies. The Trump White House’s game of chicken on trade […]
|By Matein Khalid| The epic political dramas of last week (Aunty Theresa’s Brexit plan was rejected by the House of Commons but she managed to survive a no-confidence vote by a narrow margin) strengthened the British pound, exactly as I had expected. Yet sterling has not managed to rise above 1.30 to the US dollar in the past two months and now trades at its lowest levels […]
It is now far too dangerous to short the British pound, another fabulously profitable short since its fateful 1.50 high against the US dollar the night of the June 2016 referendum. The UK Foreign Secretary shocked me when he publicly warned that voting down Mrs. May’s deal to exit the EU would scrap Brexit. Sterling rose to 1.2850 on reports that the Tory Cabinet in Downing Street […]
The Euro has been a disaster since its birth in 1999. Its monetary pathologies led to youth unemployment rates of 50-60% in Greece, Spain and the Italian Mezzogiorno. It gave a trillion-dollar windfall to German exporters at the expense of the hapless Club Med and amplified Berlin’s diktat over the lands once occupied by the Third Reich. It created the milieu for Brexit, the gilets jaunes riots […]
|By Matein Khalid| I confess, I fell in love with South Africa’s Cape Town, though not its Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). 2018 has been an annus horribilis for both the rand and South African equities, with 30% losses for a US dollar investor, the fifth worse in the emerging markets. The euphoria after President Cyril Ramaphosa replaced Jacob Zuma early this year did not last as South Africa […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| The Central Bank of the UAE confirmed that its working with the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority (SAMA) on a joint project which constitutes a Proof-of-Concept (PoC) for experimenting with Blockchain technology to facilitate cross-border payments between the two countries. The PoC is still at an early stage and will help CBUAE gain a deeper understanding of the feasibility of distributed ledger technology in this […]
|By Raj Samani |As 2018 draws to a close, we should perhaps be grateful that the year has not been entirely dominated by ransomware, although the rise of the GandCrab and SamSam variants show that the threat remains active. Our predictions for 2019 move away from simply providing an assessment on the rise or fall of a particular threat, and instead focus on current rumblings we see […]
|By Saifur Rehman|A 37 percent jump in fuel price has reduced the half-yearly net income of Emirates Group by 53 percent to $296 million in the first half of 2018-19 year, a company statement said. The high fuel cost as well as currency devaluations in India, Brazil, Angola and Iran, wiped out approximately Dh4.6 billion from the group’s profits. Emirates Group, which operates the world’s largest international […]
|By Matein Khalid| The post Lehman decade was defined by the Federal Reserve’s “lender of the last resort” strategy to stabilize the global banking system. The American central bank expanded its balance sheet from $900 billion to $4.5 trillion. This led to a collapse in money market rates, Treasury bond yields and asset market volatility. Bull markets are born in panic and die in a frenzy of […]
|By Matein Khalid| 2018 has been a difficult year for GCC and Dubai real estate. Rents and capital values continued to fall in the third quarter, albeit at different rates in specific segments and micro-markets. The Federal Reserve’s latest monetary tightening at the September 26 FOMC means the six months Emirates Interbank Offered Rate (EIBOR), the bellwether rate for floating rate home mortgages in the UAE is […]
|By Arabian Post Staff|Dubai has annonnced the world’s first faciltiy to make Blockchain-based digital payments for school fees, bills and retail purchases. The digital currency has been launched in partnership between Blockchain payment provider Pundi X, Ebooc Fintech and Loyalty Labs along with Dubai’s Credit Bureau named emcredit. Consumers in Dubai, UAE will be able to use digital currency to make retail payments in-store, pay for government […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| New York: Demby Coin, the world’s biggest ICO, has debuted at an investor conference in New York, eliciting keen interest from investors looking for alternative investment opportunities. Demby Coin, which will power the world’s first ever all-inclusive marketplace with the combined effect of the likes of Amazone and Ebay, seeks to bring the much-needed liquidity into the crypto currency ecosystem, by enabling purchases […]
By James M. Dorsey Financial injections by Qatar and possibly China may resolve Turkey’s immediate economic crisis, aggravated by a politics-driven trade war with the United States, but are unlikely to resolve the country’s structural problems, fuelled by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s counterintuitive interest rate theories. The latest crisis in Turkey’s boom-bust economy raises questions about a development model in which countries like China and Turkey witness moves towards […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| GCC sovereign debt issuance is expected to reach US$53 billion in 2018, surpassing last year’s US$49.5 billion, according to Fisch Asset Management, a Zurich-based asset manager. “GCC sovereign debt issuance has had another strong first half, with the two multi-tranche sovereign bond transactions of Saudi Arabia and Qatar leading issuance of over US$30 billion in the hard currency market,” Fisch Asset Management said […]
By James M. Dorsey An offer by a Saudi-backed bank to lend financially strapped Pakistan US$4 billion is likely intended to bolster Saudi influence when former international cricket player Imran Khan is sworn in in the coming week as the South Asian country’s next prime minister. The offer was most immediately related to a statement by Asad Umar, Pakistan’s new finance minister-in-waiting, that Pakistan would decide on whether to seek […]
By James M. Dorsey The Pakistani government’s removal of a virulently anti-Shiite militant from its terrorism list at the very moment that an international money laundering and terrorism finance watchdog was deciding to put the country on a watchlist highlights Pakistan’s struggle to come to grips with militancy. The decision by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) that was reported by Pakistani media but has yet to be announced […]
|By Matein Khalid| Crude oil prices plunged by 7% in two sessions as Saudi Arabia and Russia confirmed that they would release 1 million barrels a day in the wet barrel markets. Speculative froth in the oil futures markets vanished, to be replaced by a new trading calculus based on the realities of supply and demand – as well as the unknowable (and unquantifiable!) arc of […]
|By Arabian Post Staff| Emirates Group reported a 67 percent jump in net profits to $1.1 (Dh4.1 billion) billion in 2017-18 financial year ending March 31, 2018 compared to the previous year, with revenues reaching $27.9 billion (Dh102.4 billion), crossing the Dh100 billion mark for the first time in the history of the 32 year old airline group that includes Emirates Airline and its ground handling and ticketing arm, […]
|By Matein Khalid| I had written an article titled “six reasons to be bullish Saudi equities in 2018, published in the KT on January 28. Yet I was surprised to see Saudi Arabian equities become the world’s second best performing stock market in 2018 after Egypt. The Saudi equity index fund (KSA) I recommended in my column is up 18% at a time when the MSCI emerging markets […]
